US embassy cable - 05BUCHAREST806

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 000806 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH 
 
E.O. 12958, AS AMENDED: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, KDEM, SOCI, RO, poll 
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS MAJORITY OF ROMANIANS OPPOSED TO 
ROMANIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ 
 
 
1. (U) Summary:  A Center for Urban and Rural Sociology 
(CURS) poll released March 28 shows that more than half of 
Romanians oppose the country's military presence in Iraq. 
On other key issues, the poll indicates that Romanians are 
against early elections and believe the fight against 
corruption should be the country's top priority. The CURS 
poll indicates that a slim majority of Romanians think their 
country is headed in the "right direction." The governing 
center-right National Liberal Party (PNL)-Democratic Party 
(PD) alliance tops the list of voter preferences, with over 
48 percent support, trailed by former ruling Social 
Democratic Party (PSD) with 30 percent. A separate poll 
conducted by the independent National Institute for Public 
Opinion and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) polling agency 
produced similar results, although it did not ask for views 
on Iraq. End Summary. 
 
Opposed to Troops in Iraq; Concerned with Corruption 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
2. (U) The Center for Urban and Rural Sociology (CURS) 
published March 28 the results of an opinion poll conducted 
March 21-26.  The poll results received widespread press 
coverage in leading Romanian print and broadcast media. The 
survey covered a wide range of issues related to domestic 
and international politics.  Its question related to the 
presence of Romanian troops in Iraq was the first such 
polling question on the issue widely published in the media 
in well over a year. 
 
3. (U) Responding to the question, "Do you support the 
presence of Romanian military in Iraq?" 55 percent said no, 
36 percent said yes, and 9 percent had no opinion on the 
issue. 
 
4. (U) Respondents to the CURS poll placed fighting 
corruption at the top of their list of the country's chief 
problems. In response to the question, "In your opinion, 
which is the most important problem that has to be dealt 
with now in Romania?" results showed: 
 
                                   Percent 
Fighting corruption                     21 
Living standards                        19 
Workplaces                              19 
Pensioners' problems                     9 
Support for agriculture                  4 
Solving youth problems                   4 
Economic revival                         3 
Combating inflation                      2 
Medical assistance                       2 
Legislative coherence                    1 
Reduction of the fiscal burdens          1 
Housing                                  1 
Bureaucracy                              1 
Joining EU                               1 
Other                                    4 
No answer /Don't know                    8 
                                        -- 
                                       100 
 
SNAP Elections? 
--------------- 
5. (U) CURS polling results indicate that the majority of 
those surveyed (59 percent) oppose early parliamentary 
elections.  Only 41 percent support snap elections, with 17 
percent undecided. The CURS figures track with findings from 
an INSOMAR poll conducted March 17-21 and released March 24, 
which shows that 68 percent of those surveyed oppose snap 
elections, compared to only 32 percent in favor. President 
Traian Basescu has stated on several occasions that he would 
favor early elections, potentially this year. 
 
PNL-PD Leads in Rankings 
------------------------ 
6. (U) Both the CURS and INSOMAR polls measured public 
support for Romania's political parties with the question: 
"If parliamentary elections took place tomorrow which party 
or political formation would you vote for?"  In both polls, 
the ruling National Liberal Party - Democratic Party (PNL- 
PD) Alliance tops voters' preferences by roughly half, 
trailed by the former ruling Social-Democratic Party (PSD) 
with 30 percent. Of Romania's smaller parties, only the 
extreme nationalist (PPRM) Popular Greater Romania Party and 
the ethnic Hungarian UDMR would receive enough votes to 
cross the 5 percent parliamentary threshold, according to 
both polls. 26 percent of those interviewed by INSOMAR and 
39 percent of those interviewed by CURS indicated that they 
would not vote or did not have a voting preference. 
 
                              Percent 
                              INSOMAR      CURS 
PNL-PD                        55             48 
PSD                           27             30 
PPRM                           9              8 
UDMR                           6              5 
PUR                            1              3 
PPCD                           1              2 
Other party                    1              4 
                              --             -- 
                             100            100 
 
PNL-PD Government: On the Right Track? 
-------------------------------------- 
7. (U) According to the CURS poll, a slim majority of 
Romanians, 46 percent, believe that "things in Romania are 
going in the right direction", holding a slight edge over 
the 42 percent who believe the country is moving in the 
wrong direction. Respondents also indicated they are 
similarly divided over whether the current center-right PNL- 
PD government leads the country better than the previous 
center-left PSD government. In the CURS poll, 37 percent 
responded "better," 29 percent feel the current government 
performs the same as the previous PSD government, and 23 
percent believe it is worse. 
 
                              Percent 
Better                             37 
The same                           29 
Worse                              23 
No answer / Do not know            11 
                                   -- 
                                  100 
Comment 
------- 
8. (SBU) While the CURS poll results on Romanian involvement 
in Iraq comes on the heels of President Basescu's March 27 
visit to Romanian troops in Iraq and the March 28 hostage- 
taking of three Romanian journalists and one accompanying 
American in Iraq.  Our contacts underscore that with the PSD 
scrambling to regain ground lost during last year's 
elections, Romanian involvement in Iraq could surface as an 
increasing point of contention in the country's political 
discourse.  Nonetheless, top political leaders continue to 
emphasize that Romania plans to stay the course in Iraq. 
 
9. (SBU) The CURS poll results showing corruption at the top 
of the public agenda track with last fall's parliamentary 
elections and December presidential elections in which 
corruption became a major campaign issue.  Romania's 
progress in fighting corruption also serves as a sticking 
point for Romania's planned 2007 EU accession, and will 
remain high on the GOR and public's radar following 
President Basescu's designation of the anti-corruption fight 
as a "national security priority."  Our Embassy contacts 
underscore that while public support for the PNL-PD remains 
strong, snap elections, favored by President Basescu, are 
opposed by most lawmakers as well as the population surveyed 
in the two polls. 
 
10. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are 
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website: 
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest. 
 
11.  Minimize considered. 
 
DELARE