US embassy cable - 05MANILA1456

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001456 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/PMBS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/31/2015 
TAGS: PINS, PTER, PREL, RP, PGOV 
SUBJECT: GRP GEARS UP FOR MILF TALKS, POSSIBLE DESIGNATION 
OF MILF ELEMENTS 
 
REF: 04 MANILA 6120 
 
Classified By: Pol/C Scott Bellard, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1.  (C)  Summary.  The next GRP/MILF talks will take place in 
Kuala Lumpur April 16-18.  The GRP remains optimistic about a 
peace accord "this year," in part based on a recent friendly 
meeting in Maguindanao between the head of the GRP panel and 
MILF Chairman Murad that the Malaysians set up.  Cooperation 
against criminals under an Ad Hoc Joint Action Group is off 
to a good start.  Designation of certain MILF elements as 
terrorists could be useful to the peace process, especially 
as Chairman Murad and the MILF leadership may have a reached 
a "tipping point" on the road toward peace.  The GRP welcomes 
upcoming US Institute of Peace seminars on ancestral domain, 
and believes Chairman Murad does as well, but would also like 
to see USIP focus on MILF capacity building for governance 
and the establishment of a full-time on the ground USIP 
presence in the Philippines.  End Summary. 
 
Setting the stage for talks 
--------------------------- 
 
2.  (C)  According to Secretary Silvestre C. Afable, head of 
the GRP panel to the GRP-MILF (Moro Islamic Liberation Front) 
peace panel and Malacanang Palace's Communications Director, 
the GRP is ready with a "definite presentation" blessed by 
the National Security Council on March 28 for the next round 
of "informal talks" with the MILF, which will take place in 
Kuala Lumpur April 16-18.  He also described his 
unprecedented March 18 direct (but informal) talks in 
Maguindanao with MILF Chairman Murad and confirmed that Datu 
Othman bin Abd Razak of Malaysia's Office of the Prime 
Minister had arranged the meeting and had accompanied him. 
 
3.  (C)  Afable said that he had found Murad in "good 
spirits" and "congenial."  After the two sides agreed on the 
dates for the talks, Murad explained that he would need 
afterward to convene "community gatherings" in Maguindanao to 
discuss the results and seek support.  Murad asked that the 
GRP not impede such movements of people.  Afable promised 
Murad that the GRP would support such consultations, as long 
as these were not movements by armed insurgents. 
 
Guarded optimism 
---------------- 
 
4.  (C)  Afable said that he no longer believed a peace 
accord was possible by June, but still predicted success 
"this year."  He claimed that Chairman Murad had also 
expressed confidence in the peace process.  Afable admitted 
that "differences remain" on ancestral domain, and added that 
he had not engaged in substantive discussions with Murad on 
this during their recent talk.  He highlighted welcome 
progress in the Ad Hoc Joint Action Group (AHJAG) against 
criminals and terrorists (reftel), explaining that the GRP 
had already shared a wanted list of thirteen Indonesians and 
forty Filipinos against whom the GRP planned to act.  Under 
this agreement, the GRP does not need prior coordination with 
the MILF before moving against these wanted individuals.  He 
said that there had already been two cases of arrests 
(kidnappers and carnappers) in which the MILF had actually 
assisted the GRP security forces in blocking the flight of 
the criminals, enabling their capture.  Afable admitted that 
he had raised the issue of MILF/Jemaah Islamiyah cooperation 
only "peripherally," with Murad expressing a clear desire to 
work through the AHJAG to handle all "troublemakers." 
 
5.  (C)  Afable speculated that Murad -- and the MILF -- may 
have reached a "threshold" or a "tipping point" that would 
permit signing of a peace agreement at long last.  He claimed 
that this year's fighting on Jolo Island by the Misuari 
Breakaway Group of the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) 
seems to have heightened the MILF's awareness that steps 
toward peace were essential now in order to prevent a 
breakdown into anarchy and infiltration by the Abu Sayyaf 
Group and other terrorist elements.  He said that Murad had 
even expressed a willingness for the MILF eventually to be 
involved in a Jolo peace process if the GRP set up a "group 
of wise men" composed of community elders and NGO 
representatives.  Afable advised him that, at this point the 
GRP's preferred solution was still to pursue military action 
against the MBG on Jolo. 
 
6.  (C)  Afable claimed that the MILF appeared ready to work 
through the Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) 
government in an eventual peace accord, and that earlier 
objections may be dissipating due to "pressure" from local 
communities to end the insurgency.  He said that the MILF 
definitely had not raised the abolishment or alteration of 
the ARMM in talks with the GRP.  He described GRP thinking of 
a new GRP "Special Authority" to handle ancestral domain 
issues and subsequent development issues, although he 
expressed a belief that existing Philippine legislation on 
rights of indigenous peoples would suffice to address MILF 
demands for mineral and land rights, local autonomy, etc.  He 
welcomed what he described as a younger generation of MILF 
cadres who were "earnest" and eager to pursue developmental 
goals instead of fighting. 
 
Terrorist Designations 
---------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  Pol/C described initial USG thinking -- in 
coordination with the GRP -- about possible formal 
designation of elements of the MILF as terrorists, on which 
the media had reported following EAP A/S-designate Hill's 
visit to Manila.  After reflection, Afable commented that 
"maybe the time is ripe" for such a step and that 
"designation might be good" for the peace talks.  He admitted 
that the GRP still did not fully understand internal MILF 
dynamics and whether such a step would strengthen or weaken 
Murad in the MILF Central Committee.  He nonetheless opined 
that it could actually help him if the evidence against 
individual MILF leaders was sufficiently strong to warrant 
terrorist designation.  Pol/C promised that the USG would 
cooperate with the GRP in developing such a list. 
 
USIP role 
--------- 
 
8.  (C)  Afable welcomed USIP's planned April seminar on 
ancestral domain, and claimed that Murad had also "seemed to 
like the idea."  He added, however, that both sides had 
already formulated their positions on ancestral domain.  He 
expressed interest in an expansion of USIP's mandate to 
include capacity building and governance training for the 
MILF, similar to USAID-funded programs for ARMM officials 
provided by the Asian Institute of Management (AIM).  He 
noted, however, that USIP remained limited in what it could 
do here in the absence of a full-time presence on the ground 
in the Philippines. 
Ricciardone