US embassy cable - 05QUITO705

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 QUITO 000705 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, KJUS, EC 
SUBJECT: ECUADOR: MORE CHAOS IN CONGRESS 
 
REF: QUITO 664 
 
Classified By: DCM Arnold Chacon.  Reason 1.4 (b&d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary:  Despite conciliatory overtures by President 
Gutierrez to resolve the Supreme Court issue, confrontation 
flared again in Congress on March 30 over the selection of a 
new Attorney General.  The battle over the new Attorney 
General has temporarily crowded out debate over the 
President's new proposed law to vacate the Supreme Court 
pending a referendum on how to select a new one.  The PRIAN 
is voting against the government on both issues, leading the 
government to seek new allies in Congress.  President 
Gutierrez hinted to the Ambassador that he was seeking those 
allies in the moderate Left.  Thus far, conflict in congress 
has not threatened the stability of the government directly. 
It continues to divert the GOE from governance, however, 
negatively affecting USG interests.  We continue to encourage 
dialogue as the path to progress.  End Summary. 
 
Another Rumble in Congress 
-------------------------- 
 
2.  (U) March 30 was the final date for Congress to choose 
from among the three candidates for Attorney General selected 
by the National Judicial Council (CNJ).  Seeking to close off 
debate, President of Congress Omar Quintana opened the battle 
by immediately closing the congressional session, declaring 
lack of quorum.  Opposition members sought to hold the 
session elsewhere in the Congress building, provoking 
Quintana to rage through the halls and nearly come to blows 
with opposition members.  Fifty-seven opposition members, led 
by PSC deputy Cynthia Viteri, then moved to another building, 
re-opened the session, and again voted to reject all three 
candidates.  To prevent Quintana from blocking transmittal of 
the resolution to the CNJ, as he had done with an earlier 
resolution approved by 60 legislators March 23 (RefTel), the 
rebel legislators then personally delivered the resolution to 
the CNJ.  The government's congressional allies declared the 
session illegal and Quintana vowed to swear in Jorge Lopez, 
the first of the three candidates and a Gutierrez ally, on 
March 31. 
 
Supreme Court Issue Diverted 
---------------------------- 
 
3.  (U) The fight over the Attorney General has temporarily 
diverted Congress from the unresolved conflict over the 
Supreme Court.  After a humiliating rebuff by the opposition 
to his invitation to public dialogue on March 23, President 
Gutierrez signaled new flexibility by introducing a 
resolution in Congress on March 28 which would declare the 
current Supreme Court terminated upon Congressional passage. 
The bill echoes elements of the President's referendum 
proposal, reducing the number of justices from the current 31 
to 16, adding an age limit of 75, and describing a selection 
process through electoral colleges.  The measure would then 
be put to the people in a binding referendum.  Congress has 
not taken up the President's bill, diverted instead by the 
fight over the Attorney Generalship.  The ad-hoc Assembly of 
Quito, led by Mayor Paco Moncayo, is calling for immediate 
Congressional action to terminate the court, threatening to 
convoke civil society to plan a strike.  The Supreme Court 
stayed home on March 30 due to a bomb threat against their 
building. 
 
GOE Flirting with ID 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (C) Appearing serene amidst mounting political turmoil, 
President Gutierrez on March 28 told the Ambassador that he 
continued to seek dialogue with the opposition on the court 
issue, but the opposition was not biting.  PRIAN leader Noboa 
continued to resist any change to the court, and did not want 
to face his tax obligations either.  Gutierrez said he was 
offering his bill in response to the UN Rapporteur's 
suggestion that he offer new proposals to move the issue. 
Asked by the Ambassador whether he had sought dialogue with 
Social Christian Party leader Jaime Nebot or his 
congressional allies, Gutierrez said no.  Instead, he said, 
he hoped to exchange views with the moderate faction in the 
Democratic Left (ID).  Gutierrez said that this faction, led 
by Congressman Andres Paez, was interested in discussing a 
broader agenda including, in addition to the court issue, 
agreement on hydrocarbon exploitation and free trade.  He was 
favorably disposed, and asked the Ambassador to use her good 
offices to encourage the dialogue. 
 
Alliance Over? 
-------------- 
5.  (C) What does all this mean?  First, it is clear that the 
government's earlier alliance with the PRE, PRIAN, 
independents and small leftist parties has frayed.  The PRIAN 
has defected to fight for its own Attorney General and to 
preserve the composition of the Supreme Court.  This break 
reflects banana magnate Alvaro Noboa's interest in protecting 
his business empire from legal challenge.  The PRIAN retains 
a strong interest, however, in working with the government to 
protect the current composition of the Supreme Electoral 
Tribunal.  Noboa believes he lost his first bid for the 
presidency, due to electoral fraud, and wishes to retain 
control of the TSE to prevent that from happening again in 
2006.  Meanwhile, Gutierrez is clearly looking for allies 
among the opposition to resolve the Supreme Court issue, and 
seemed very hopeful about prospects within the ID.  We are 
less sanguine about the chances of this dialogue reaching 
fruition, given the splits inside the ID, where the radically 
anti-Gutierrez faction is dominant.  Moncayo is a potential 
counterweight, but has been reluctant to enter into dialogue 
thus far. 
Comment 
------- 
 
6.  (C) The ongoing battles in Congress reflects intense 
political competition but, at least since February 16, have 
lacked the massive street support to directly threaten the 
government's stability.  The government has benefited from 
the indigenous movement's continued preoccupation with 
internal divisions, and the public's growing fatigue with 
incessant political infighting.  Meanwhile, with Congress 
diverted, key USG priorities including TIP and 
money-laundering legislation, remain blocked.  Our efforts to 
encourage dialogue have had a positive effect on the 
government;  we will redouble our efforts with the 
opposition. 
KENNEY