US embassy cable - 05DJIBOUTI298

C O N F I D E N T I A L DJIBOUTI 000298 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON FOR AFRICA WATCHER; 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, DJ 
SUBJECT: ELECTION APPROACHES; INTERIOR MINISTER DISCOURAGES 
PROTESTS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Marguerita D. Ragsdale. 
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1. (C) Ambassador met March 27 with Minister of Interior, 
Abdoulkader Doualeh Wais, at the Minister's request to 
discuss election activities. Wais updated the Ambassador on 
preparations for election day, stating all materials and 
judicial texts were complete. Training for voting office 
officials would be held that day for the city of Djibouti and 
on the 29th for interior districts. Wais expressed interest 
in meeting the U.S.-sponsored pre-election assessment team 
comprised of representatives from the International 
Republican Institute (IRI) and the International Foundation 
for Electoral Systems (IFES). He stressed that he found it 
very important that visiting observers receive all the 
necessary information about the electoral process. He said he 
hoped the U.S. would send observers for the day of the vote. 
Wais said the International Organization of Francophone 
Countries (IOFC) currently had a preliminary evaluation team 
in Djibouti to decide whether to send observers. He also said 
observers were expected from the European Union (EU), African 
Union (AU) and the Arab League (AL). He added that the 
Government of Djibouti intended to organize the election in a 
legal, regulated and transparent manner. 
 
2. (C) Wais explained to Ambassador the presidential campaign 
process, during which incumbent President Guelleh and 
representatives from the majority's coalition, Union for 
Presidential Majority (UMP), would be conducting campaign 
meetings throughout the country over the next two weeks. 
While Wais was authorized to take part in the campaign, he 
said he preferred to stick strictly to organization and 
logistics. He noted that the new party, Union of Reform 
Partisans (UPR), would also be supporting the government's 
campaign. As for the opposition, he commented that Djiboutian 
Party for Democracy (PDD) did not support the boycott, but 
could not fund its own candidacy. There were two schools of 
thought within the opposition regarding the boycott, he 
continued: 1) that the opposition was not confident it could 
get enough votes to ensure the 5 million DF (28,000 USD) 
deposit required to be put forward for candidacy -- returned 
only if the candidate received 5 percent or more of the total 
vote -- would be returned, and therefore did not want to risk 
losing that much money and 2) the opposition could get 
sufficient financial and physical support and should 
participate. 
 
3. (C) Wais agreed that it was the right of the opposition, 
or any individual, to participate or not. He advised 
Ambassador that he saw only three legitimate positions a 
party boycotting could advocate among the electorate: 1) "We 
won't participate, so don't vote," 2) "We won't participate, 
but give your support to X candidate," and 3) "Vote if you 
like, don't if not." Wais said that any other position could 
be construed as attempting to impede the political process. 
He made clear that making trouble on election day or 
interrupting the process would not be tolerated. He also said 
that he was very clear on this point in his last two public 
speeches and that the opposition knew the law. 
 
4. (C) Comment: Post believes Wais's intent in asking for the 
meeting was to ensure the U.S. understands the government's 
position regarding the potential for protests by the 
opposition. Persons protesting on election day could be 
charged with disturbing the peace or unlawful demonstration. 
Post cannot find specific laws that prohibit demonstrations 
on election days, but it may be the tenor and method of 
protest that will be the determining factors for the 
government. The Minister of Interior's statements could well 
be viewed by the opposition as lightly veiled threats aimed 
at discouraging expressions of discontent on election day. It 
is too early to tell what portion of the population will side 
with the opposition and possibly demonstrate. However, it is 
rumored that the Afar populations - opposition aligned or not 
- are not supportive of Guelleh due to claims of unfulfilled 
promises and will likely not turn up in large numbers at the 
polls. End Comment. 
RAGSDALE