US embassy cable - 05HARARE474

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 HARARE 000474 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, PREL, ECON, ZI, VIP Visits 
SUBJECT: HOUSE STAFF DELEGATION VISITS ZIMBABWE 
 
REF: A) HARARE 468 B) HARARE 469 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1. (SBU) Majority Staffer Malik Chaka and Minority Staffer 
Pearl-Alice Marsh from the House of Representatives 
International Relations Committee (HIRC) visited Zimbabwe 
March 20-25, traveling to Bulwayo March 21-22.  In Bulawayo 
the Staff Delegation met renegade independent candidate 
Jonathan Moyo (Ref A) as well as with MDC M.P. David Coltart 
and the town's MDC mayor.  In Harare, they met with MDC 
leader Morgan Tsvangarai (Ref B), two of the three Mutare 
Bishops, as well as Anti-Corruption/Monopolies Minister 
Didimyus Mutasa, Reserve Bank (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono, and 
Media and Information Commission Chairman Tafataona Mahoso. 
In addition, the delegation met with a variety of leaders of 
civil society groups.  The StaffDel's meeting with MDC 
President Morgan Tsvangirai is reported in ref B. 
 
2. (C) Both government and opposition politicians were upbeat 
about their parties, electoral prospects.  With some 
exceptions, MDC officials acknowledged that the recent 
election climate had been more peaceful than in 2002, but 
they, the Bishops, and the civil society leaders urged the 
U.S. to continue to press Zimbabwe,s neighbors to call the 
election fairly.  Neither media regulator Mahoso nor RBZ 
Governor Gono offered much promise of loosening the GOZ's 
grip on the press and the economy.  Mutasa acknowledged that 
the GOZ would request international food aid shortly after 
elections, which he blamed on drought, while the local head 
of WFP attributed the food crisis to government 
mismanagement.  End Summary. 
 
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MDC Believes Tide Turning Their Way 
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3. (C) Bulawayo's MDC executive mayor Japhet Ndabeni-Ncube 
said Bulawayo was peaceful and likely to remain so.  He 
reported that police were not hostile to the MDC and in fact 
were working with the MDC, in many instances offering 
invaluable tips.  Nonetheless, the ruling party continued to 
abuse its control of government resources.  He predicted that 
the MDC would take at least 80 seats nationally, "70 if we 
fail completely."  He urged the USG to pursue quiet diplomacy 
and not play into Mugabe,s hands by taking the lead in 
condemning him.  Mbeki and other African leaders would be 
more effective in that regard. 
 
4. (C) At dinner March 21, David Coltart and Thokozani Khupe, 
MDC MP candidates in Bulawayo constituencies, said the 
environment was generally peaceful.  However, some people had 
been beaten or threatened, and food continued to be a source 
of ruling party leverage.  Still, the MDC's surprisingly wide 
exposure and a more constructive police posture ) three 
village headmen were arrested in Lupane, for example, for 
tearing down MDC posters ) were opening the door.  Indeed, 
Coltart, who just two months ago told the Ambassador that the 
MDC would be lucky to take 25 seats, forecast it would win at 
least half the contested seats (i.e. 60) even accounting for 
ruling party skullduggery.  He urged the USG to "be bolder" 
with South Africa and Botwsana and to back tough rhetoric 
with action. 
 
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ZANU-PF Official Believes Party Still Resonates with Voters 
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5. (C) Minister for Anti-Corruption/Monopolies and ZANU-PF 
Secretary for Administration Didymus said Zimbabwe was 
 
SIPDIS 
"grateful" for sanctions because they had pushed the country 
to redouble its economic efforts.  The ruling party wanted 
better relations with the United States and the West and felt 
that its isolation was unwarranted.  However, he indicated 
that Zimbabwe was unlikely to take the first overt step 
toward rapprochement since "it wasn,t the one who closed the 
door."  He asserted that the election atmosphere was "less 
violent than before", would be violence-free on election day, 
and would be "freer and fairer than all past elections." 
6. (C) Mutasa said that renewed drought meant that the GOZ 
would require international food assistance again in spite of 
earlier official GOZ assurances to the contrary.  He said he 
had advised British officials of the situation that morning 
but did not indicate when a formal appeal would be 
forthcoming.  (Note: Local WFP representatives are betting on 
early April, after the elections.)  Mutusa apologized for 
Tsholotsho's District Administrator,s ejection of the 
 
SIPDIS 
StaffDel following their March 22 meeting with Moyo (Ref A). 
 
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Media Czar and Central Banker Backpedal on Press/Economic 
Liberalization 
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7. (C) Media and Information Commission (MIC) Chairman 
Tafataona Mahoso briefed the StaffDel on current media 
legislation.  Mahoso said the GOZ's goal was developing 
community papers that served the country's interests, rather 
than "commercial papers" funded by foreign capital.  In that 
regard, Mahoso claimed the GOZ had closed the opposition 
Daily News and Weekly Times due to these papers, failure to 
adhere to licensing and registration procedures designed to 
protect the "national content" in Zimbabwe,s press. 
 
8. (C) Reserve Bank (RBZ) Governor Gideon Gono told the 
StaffDel that "2004 marked a turnaround of the economy," 
explaining that year-to-year inflation has fallen from 624 to 
127 percent, which he acknowledged was still among the 
highest in the world.  As to the recent slide of the 
zimdollar on parallel markets, Gono acknowledged that the RBZ 
had stopped chasing down parallel traders during the election 
campaign and argued that he was unable to defend the 
zimdollar's value due to pre-election expenses.  Gono refused 
to be drawn out on the GOZ's post-election economic plans, 
such as a rumored devaluation. 
 
9. (C) Gono said the GOZ's goal was "command agriculture," 
suggesting the GOZ would intervene further in this 
beleaguered sector.  The RBZ Governor said he wanted the GOZ 
to issue tradable 99-year leases to land reform 
beneficiaries, enabling them to transfer and borrow against 
their assigned properties.  Yet when pressed, Gono 
backtracked from this market-oriented approach and told the 
StaffDel that the GOZ was not prepared to fully relinquish 
control of the properties and would forcibly remove any of 
the 140,000 land reform beneficiaries who were not farming 
"seriously." 
 
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Bishops Also Predict Good Result 
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10. (C) Mutare Bishops Trevor Manhanga (Evangelical) and 
Patrick Mutume (Catholic) told the Staffdel that it was too 
early to predict the outcome of the elections but said the 
MDC would probably at least maintain the same number of 
seats.  The elections could not be considered free and fair 
because the playing field was tilted in favor of ZANU-PF by 
factors such as restrictive legislation such as the Access to 
Information and Protection of Privacy Act (AIPPA) and the 
Public Order and Security Act (POSA), rumors spread by 
ZANU-PF supporters that votes would not be secret, the errors 
in the voters' roll, the disenfranchisement of the Diaspora, 
and the likelihood that ZANU-PF supporters would attempt to 
stack the queues early in the day and prevent MDC supporters 
from voting.  It was also not clear what role the reduction 
in violence would play in voters' willingness to vote their 
conscience, after so many of years of violence and 
intimidation 
 
11. (C) The Bishops added that ZANU-PF Secretary for 
Information and Publicity Nathan Shamuyarira had approached 
them about brokering negotiations with the MDC after the 
election.  Shamuyarira had also told them ZANU-PF wanted 
their help in restoring the legitimacy of the government in 
the eyes of the international community.  In that regard, 
Manhanga said the international community should recognize 
the steps the GOZ had taken and use that as a basis to 
further engage with the GOZ.  However, he said these changes 
did not represent "the whole loaf" and that the international 
community should continue to press for reforms.  The Bishops 
added that it was important to understand Mugabe's 
psychology; Mugabe wanted to leave the presidency but needed 
a 2/3's majority in Parliament to do so on his own terms. 
Without such a majority he would be forced to negotiate with 
the opposition. 
 
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Civil Society Leader Cite Uneven Playing Field 
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12. (C) National Constitutional Assembly (NCA) Chairman 
Lovemore Madhuku noted that while physical violence was down, 
numerous other factors nonetheless created an uneven election 
field.  He cited unequal media access, the lack of 
independent government institutions, and repressive 
legislation as examples.  Madhuku acknowledged strong MDC 
support but said he believed that institutionalized 
unfairness would prevent the MDC from winning more than 50 
seats.  He advocated focusing less on election results and 
more on mass action from opponents of the GOZ to press for 
reforms such as revising the constitution and repealing 
repressive legislation. 
 
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USAID &Partners8 Concerned by Potential for Fraud 
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13. (C) USAID hosted a lunch for the Staffdel with eight 
"core partners" from civil society (N.B. The NCA is not a 
core partner.)  The participants said the ruling party would 
try to influence the outcome of the elections via fraud and 
intimidation.  They agreed with the Ambassador that the 
elections needed to be judged against SADC guidelines rather 
than past elections.  In that regard, Brian Kagoro from the 
Crisis in Zimbabwe Coalition noted that the South African 
national observer team in 2002 had made recommendations that 
had not fulfilled and that could be also be used to assess 
the election.  Some participants expressed concern over the 
role of SADC observers, who may already have prejudged the 
elections as free and fair, but one participant noted that 
the representatives from Mauritius had told him they would 
not go along with a whitewash. 
 
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Pollster Predicts Good MDC Showing 
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14. (SBU) Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) Researcher 
Charles Mangongera said results from the organization,s 
December 2004/January 2005 survey suggested a healthy 
election environment: 86% of voters said they plan to vote 
and 75% said they trusted the voter rolls.  At the same time, 
72% knew nothing about the government,s electoral changes 
and only 16% knew about the SADC guidelines, indicating that 
the electorate was largely unaware of the criteria that will 
be used to judge whether the election is free and fair. 
Overall, Mangongera said he believed the MDC would keep its 
current seats, especially in urban areas, and would surprise 
ZANU-PF by gaining some in rural areas.  While he said he 
expected violence to remain low after elections, he 
emphasized that the political freedom would remain limited. 
 
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Food Security and HIV/AIDS 
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15. (SBU) Beyond election-related meetings, the StaffDel also 
attended a food security briefing from local representatives 
of the UN's Food for Agriculture Organization (FAO) and World 
Food Program (WFP) as well as NGOs C-Safe and FEWSNET and a 
roundtable discussion of the HIV/AIDS situation.  On food 
security, the Staffdel,s briefers painted a grim picture of 
the coming maize harvest, arguing that the GOZ could require 
up to 1,000,000 tons of grain imports or donations to feed 
the population.  WFP Director Kevin Farrell said 
"ever-present centralization" in the buying and selling of 
maize by the GOZ's parastatal Grain Marketing Board (GMB) "is 
really the problem," rather than recent droughts. 
Representatives from a variety of USG-funded HIV/AIDS and 
health organizations told the StaffDel that they needed and 
could use more human resources.  Unlike most other African 
countries, they said Zimbabwe had the capacity and 
infrastructure to absorb funding, but would lose this 
advantage without forthcoming support. 
 
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Comment 
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16. (C) We have commented elsewhere on the upcoming election, 
including our scene-setter, Harare 467.  That said, we were 
struck by the Staffdel,s enthusiastic reception.  In spite 
of busy pre-election campaigning, both government and 
opposition leaders were enthusiastic about interacting with 
staffers Chaka and Marsh.  Nearly every interlocutor we 
sought out readily consented to a meeting and many other 
local figures called to ask for a spot on the agenda.  The 
delegation also generated considerable media interest.  Post 
believes this delegation demonstrated a high demand for 
future Congressional delegations, which we would welcome. 
 
17. (U) The StaffDel did not have the opportunity to clear 
this message. 
Dell