US embassy cable - 05MANILA1451

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANILA 001451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/PMBS, INR/EAP, S/CT 
NSC FOR GREEN 
SEOUL FOR ERIC JOHN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2015 
TAGS: PTER, PINS, RP 
SUBJECT: TERRORIST NPA STEPS UP ANTI US THREATS ON ITS 36TH 
ANNIVERSARY 
 
REF: A. MANILA 1401 
     B. MANILA 887 
     C. MANILA 1127 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Joseph Saus 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) Summary.  The Communist Party of the Philippines/New 
People's Army (CPP/NPA), designated by the US as a Foreign 
Terrorist Organization in 2002, has increased its level of 
rhetoric against the USG and the GRP.  While the themes of 
the CPP/NPA's public statements remain focused against US 
military assistance to Philippine security forces and the 
"global war on terror," the latest particular media blitz 
coincided with the 36th anniversary of the NPA's founding on 
March 29.  Beyond rhetoric, there are no indications of 
active NPA terror plots or operations against US targets or 
forces in-country, although the group continues to claim the 
right to defend itself should US troops engage in combat 
operations against NPA forces.  NPA opportunistic attacks 
against US forces are possible if physical security measures 
are reduced or inadequate, and targets are caught isolated. 
The Mission and the GRP are meeting the CPP's rhetoric 
head-on to combat its misinformation and counter its 
long-standing insurgency.  End Summary. 
 
Intensified Anniversary Rhetoric 
-------------------------------- 
 
2.  (SBU) In celebration of the 36th anniversary of its 
founding, the CPP/NPA's spokesman Gregorio "Ka Roger" Rosal 
engaged in a media blitz threatening US troops in the 
Philippines and criticizing US counterterrorism policies -- 
specifically US military assistance to the Philippines. 
Rosal's media statements were typically full of 
misinformation and anti-US bias.  In a March 26 press 
release, he painted US claims of instability in the 
Philippines in its travel advisories as a pretext for 
increased US military "intervention" -- the CPP/NPA's working 
term for US counterterrorism assistance and training to 
Philippine police and military forces, including humanitarian 
assistance and civil-military operations.  An editorial in 
the March 7 "Ang Bayan" (the CPP's official newspaper) 
separately criticized the March 2005 US-RP Balikatan military 
exercises as part of a "rising tide of US military 
intervention." 
 
3.  (SBU) In a March 29 "Message to the New People's Army," 
the CPP Central Committee separately provided its combatants 
a pep talk, stressing that the US-led "world capitalist 
system and its domestic ruling system (the GRP) is 
worsening."  The lengthy diatribe was a showcase of the 
Communist worldview, citing alleged socio-economic problems 
resulting from globalization, US "imperial overstretch," and 
the ineffectiveness of the Philippine "puppet regime."  The 
document closed with a section apparently intended to inspire 
the NPA to a higher level of people's war, but also 
describing the NPA's general operating plans.  It claimed NPA 
units are growing to include "130 guerrilla fronts covering 
significant portions of nearly 70 provinces, in around 800 
municipalities and more than 9,000 barrios."  It added that 
recruitment and indoctrination of the population continues at 
a brisk pace, and that the NPA would supply itself with arms 
captured from the government by attacking its facilities and 
supply lines.  It expressed the CPP's hope of attaining 140 
fronts, each with a company-sized unit (about 100 fighters). 
The CPP Central Committee document noted its people's war 
would continue as a low level insurgency, relying largely on 
guerrilla tactics.  (comment:  Facts and figures supplied by 
the CPP are most definitely inflated.  In contrast, the Armed 
Forces of the Philippines announced in a January press 
release that the NPA operates 106 fronts with a total of 
8,240 fighters -- a yearly decrease of seven percent.  We 
judge this figure to be deflated in order to show progress in 
its fight against the NPA.  End comment.) 
 
Countering The Media Offensive 
------------------------------ 
 
4.  (SBU) The AFP and Philippine National Police PNP 
spokesmen moved quickly to attack the CPP/NPA's rhetoric, 
calling the threats an "empty boast."  AFP spokesman 
Lieutenant Colonel Buenaventura Pascual stressed to the media 
that the NPA can only attack isolated outposts, and confirmed 
that US troops in the March 2005 Balikatan exercise in Quezon 
Province (devastated by severe storms and flooding last 
December) conducted engineering, medical, and dental 
missions.  PNP spokesman Senior Superintendent (Colonel 
equivalent) Leopoldo Bataoil said publicly that NPA comments 
actually undercut its support among the population.  Bataoil, 
a 2005 graduate of the International Law Enforcement 
Academy/Bangkok's "Combating Transnational Terrorism" course, 
also stressed the need for public support in reporting to 
authorities "any planned attack so (the PNP) can respond 
accordingly." 
 
Comment;  Threat Against US Likely Exaggerated 
------------------------------------ 
 
5.  (C) Inflammatory CPP/NPA rhetoric is very common, 
especially coming from the incendiary "Ka Roger. 
Nonetheless, the NPA's low-intensity insurgency will 
continue, absent a formal cease-fire or GRP military victory, 
both still highly unlikely.  The NPA nearly always caveats 
its threats against the US military with the condition that 
US troops should not operate in "NPA areas" or directly 
against NPA units -- tasks the AFP or the PNP exclusively 
undertake under current US-GRP procedures.  The AFP continues 
to provide effective security for US humanitarian operations 
near NPA areas, and there are no active NPA operations 
against US targets, according to Mission offices that track 
CPP/NPA threats.  As with any solid counterinsurgency 
strategy, the key to the endgame lies in winning the hearts 
and minds of the population.  US military humanitarian 
missions and our public diplomacy efforts at media events 
have always focused on positive US contributions extended to 
the Filipino people.  We support and publicly acknowledge the 
GRP's own efforts in combating and weakening the Communist 
insurgency, as well as other insurgent and terrorist threats 
here.  As reported in ref A, the NPA nonetheless remains a 
formidable threat to GRP security forces and local officials 
for the foreseeable future.  Tensions are currently high in 
CPP/NPA ranks over unsolved systematic assassinations of 
leftists as well as the volatile labor dispute at Hacienda 
Luisita (ref B).  Threats will continue against US forces, 
which may encounter an opportun