US embassy cable - 05PARIS2085

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002085 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL, EB AND INR/EUR 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2015 
TAGS: ECON, EU, PGOV, FR, ELAB, SOCI 
SUBJECT: EU REFERENDUM: FRENCH POLLSTERS ASSESS TREND 
TOWARDS 'NO' IN MOST RECENT POLLS 
 
REF: A. (A) PARIS 2006 
 
     B. (B) PARIS 1998 
     C. (C) PARIS 1856 
     D. (D) PARIS 1833 (E) PARIS 1649 (F) PARIS 1230 (G) 
        PARIS 1014 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reasons 1.4 (b/d). 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  After two recent polls showed 
that a majority of those who had decided would reject the EU 
Constitution in a May 29 referendum, we met with pollsters to 
get their assessment of this trend.  We wanted to determine 
if the change was just a passing phase related to recent 
events, or whether the increasingly sour public mood has 
deeper, more enduring roots.  The pollsters agreed that 
President Chirac and the Raffarin government enjoy very 
little confidence among ordinary voters.  In addition, these 
experienced observers of public opinion identify a deep 
rejection of the political elite by voters and anger at the 
way ordinary citizens have long been excluded from decisions 
relating to Europe.  END SUMMARY. 
 
RECENT POLLS REVEAL GROWING STRENGTH OF THE "NO" VOTE 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
2. (U) Until the first week of March, all polls in France 
projected that the proposed EU Constitution would pass by a 
comfortable margin in the May 29 referendum.  Then, on March 
10 a general strike saw at least 500,000 demonstrators take 
to the streets throughout France to protest low salaries and 
proposed reforms of the 35-hour work week and education 
system (refs D and E).  The strike and social discontent came 
on the heels of a scandal involving extravagant 
taxpayer-provided housing for the finance minister (ref F). 
To this was added the controversy over the EU's "Bolkestein 
Directive", which proposed to allow more cross-border 
competition in the European services sector (ref C).  In 
addition, the public debate about the proposed Constitution 
kicked off in earnest as the political parties cranked up 
their pro and con campaigns (refs B and G).  Following these 
events, the CSA polling organization published a poll which, 
for the first time, showed that a majority of decided voters 
planned to vote no.  According to the March 18 CSA reading, 
decided voters would reject the proposed Constitution by a 
margin of 51 to 49 percent, with 53 percent of potential 
voters abstaining or undecided.  The same poll only two weeks 
prior showed that decided voters favored the proposed 
Constitution by a comfortable 65 to 35 percent margin.  On 
March 21, another polling organization, IPSOS, published 
numbers which also reflected a marked trend towards 'no' 
among decided voters, this time by a margin of 52 to 48 
percent.  The prior IPSOS poll, taken some two weeks earlier, 
showed a clear 60/40 lead for 'yes' supporters.  Two 
subsequent polls have confirmed the trend toward rejection of 
the constitution. 
 
IPSOS DIRECTOR GENERAL GIACOMETTI 
--------------------------------- 
3. (SBU) PolOff and visiting INR analyst met with IPSOS 
general director Pierre Giacometti on March 21 to discuss the 
results of IPSOS' most recent poll and the outlook for the 
coming campaign.  According to Giacometti, in his 20 years of 
polling experience, he had never witnessed such a "brutal" 
change in public opinion in such a short span of time. 
Giacometti said that changes in opinion reflected in the two 
polls (CSA and IPSOS) were so unexpected that they had 
"changed the climate of the entire campaign, making anything 
possible, including a 'no' victory."  He also pointed out one 
significant difference with the 1993 campaign for the 
Maastricht Treaty which passed by referendum in France by a 
narrow 51.5 to 48.5 percent margin.  Many commentators claim 
the Maastricht experience provides a model for a 'yes' 
victory in the current contest.  In the 1993 campaign, the 
polls initially showed a significant advantage for proponents 
of the treaty.  Later, the polls narrowed to a fifty-fifty 
dead heat, but only during the final two weeks of the 
campaign.  The present case is different, Giacometti 
believes, because the polls have narrowed to fifty-fifty some 
ten weeks out from referendum day, presumably revealing the 
hidden strength of the 'no' vote. 
 
4. (C) Giacometti also pointed to an "unstable electorate" -- 
one which no longer lines up along the classic left-right 
spectrum -- as another potential source of strength for the 
'no' vote.  "People no longer listen to their political 
leaders," Giacometti said, citing as evidence the first round 
results of the 2002 presidential campaign.  In that contest 
Jean-Marie Le Pen, leader of the extreme-right National Front 
(FN) party, placed second behind Jacques Chirac, knocking 
Socialist Party candidate Lionel Jospin out of the race. 
"The people voted for Le Pen in 2002 to protest 'business as 
usual' in French politics.  After that experience, they could 
vote for anybody or anything," Giacometti opined.  On the 
other hand, Giacometti admitted that ten weeks remained in 
the campaign and 'a swing in public opinion in one direction 
could be offset by a swing in the opposite direction. 
"Chirac holds the key," Giacometti concluded.  "If he engages 
himself actively in the campaign, like Mitterrand did in 
1993, and if he can find a theme which raises the tenor of 
the debate above the base desire to register a protest vote 
against the government, then the EU Constitution might be 
approved after all."  NOTE: President Chirac, in remarks to 
press after the European Summit (ref A), touched on what is 
likely to be the key theme of his pro-yes campaign: that 
voting no is un-patriotic because a 'no' victory would deal a 
grievous blow to France's leadership role in Europe.  END 
NOTE. 
 
5. (C) Assessing the motivations of both 'yes' and 'no' 
voters, Giacometti observed that those planning to vote 'yes' 
in the referendum will not get immediate feedback for their 
participation.  "Even if they win," Giacometti said, "the 
next morning, they will wake up and realize nothing has 
changed.  Unemployment will still be 10 percent, 
globalization will threaten their jobs, the economy will be 
stagnant, consumer prices will still be rising, and the 
political class will continue to remain aloof from the 
problems of the common citizen."  By contrast, Giacometti 
noted, "those voting 'no' will see an immediate effect.  In 
the morning they will wake up, read their newspapers and 
discover they have thrown the entire EU Project into turmoil 
-- an immediate feedback resulting from their participation." 
 Another factor strengthening the 'no' vote, Giacometti 
believes, is the sheer length and complexity of the 
constitution itself.  "No one will spend their weekend 
reading the document before voting, Giacometti said.  "And 
even if they try, they'll soon give up.  In this context, 
voting 'no' is the easy, default decision to make." 
 
CSA DIRECTOR CAYROL 
------------------- 
6. (C) PolOff and visiting INR analyst met with CSA general 
director Roland Cayrol on March 23.  Cayrol identified 
President Chirac's hesitant approach to reform as the 
principal source of public discontent which could lead to a 
rejection of the EU Constitution by French voters.  Cayrol 
claimed that a majority of the French population not only 
recognizes the need for change, but in fact desires it.  "The 
people will accept reform," Cayrol said, "but only so long as 
the pain is distributed evenly.  They are ready for change 
and want to get on with it, but they also know the political 
class is holding them back."  Cayrol believes it was a major 
political miscalculation for President Chirac to undertake a 
slow approach to reform following the 2002 elections.  "The 
people want reform, but they also want it over and done with. 
 What they can't stand is having it done little-by-little, so 
that every year the government comes back to them with a new 
round of mini-reforms," Cayrol said. 
 
7. (SBU) Like other observers, Cayrol also reviewed the 
familiar litany of reasons for the rise of the 'no' vote. 
"It's not just another strike or mass demonstration," Cayrol 
said.  "It's a summation of things: the Socialists don't want 
to have to support Chirac a third time -- first, in the 
second round of the 2002 presidential election (in Chirac's 
run-off against far-right candidate Le Pen), and second, in 
supporting Chirac's opposition to the U.S. over the war in 
Irak.  As for the people, they're tired of seeing prices rise 
while their salaries stagnate.  They fear unemployment, 
globalization and the movement of French companies overseas. 
They're mad about French companies making record profits and 
the rising stock market.  They were disgusted by the Gaymard 
affair (ref F).  They want to thumb their noses at Brussels 
for pushing the Bolkestein directive on them (ref C).  The 
people's calculation is," Cayrol summarized, "we are pro-EU 
but the European project will continue in any case.  Hence, a 
'no' vote carries no risk." 
 
8. (C) According to Cayrol, Prime Minister Raffarin made a 
major mistake when he signaled he was prepared to make 
concessions following the general strike and mass 
demonstrations on March 10 (ref D).  "When Raffarin conceded 
to the unions," Cayrol said, "then he was cooked.  From that 
moment forward, the protesters said to themselves, 'Hey, 
going on strike works.  Let's push for more.'"  Given his 
lack of credibility, Raffarin will make a poor advocate for 
the Constitution.  Cayrol claimed that his polling 
organization had discovered that the moment the Prime 
Minister appears on TV, the public immediately starts channel 
surfing.  As for President Chirac, "the more he involves 
himself in the campaign, the more the referendum will be a 
vote about his term in office.  And that's a sure route to a 
'no' vote," Cayrol said.  "It's also certain that the 
opinions of extreme voters on the left and right cannot be 
swayed, Cayrol continued, though it's likely that most UMP 
voters will either vote 'yes' or abstain." 
 
9. (C) Hence, the only way the 'yes" vote can still carry the 
day, Cayrol believes, is for Socialist Party leader Francois 
Hollande to undertake a campaign which touches on center-left 
voters' lingering feelings of guilt about voting 'no.' 
"Hollande should conduct a sly campaign," Cayrol proffered, 
"in effect asking center-left voters if voting no is a 
'reasonable' thing to do."  If Hollande -- along with 
Francois Bayrou, leader of the centrist UDF political party 
-- can convince enough voters that Europe is part of the 
future and France will be left behind if it votes no, then 
the EU Constitution will be approved on referendum day, 
Cayrol concluded. 
 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
10.  (C) The May 29 referendum is still over two months away. 
 There will be a surfeit of further polls about voter 
intentions between now and then.  Clearly, popular discontent 
("la grogne" as the French call it) has completely upset the 
political elite's assumption that the proposed Constitution 
would pass 'as a matter of course.'  The problem for 
supporters of the constitution is that, so far, only the 
French elite is defending it.  There is no popular 'yes' 
movement.  If the diverse and unorganized opposition begins 
to coalesce around a central theme of rejection and protest, 
the snowball effect for 'no' suggested by poll results may 
sweep aside everything in its path.  END COMMENT. 
LEACH