US embassy cable - 05ROME1058

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 001058 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, IT, ITALIAN POLITICS 
SUBJECT: ITALY'S REGIONAL ELECTIONS:  THE LAUNCH OF THE 
NATIONAL ELECTION CAMPAIGN 
 
REF: A. FLORENCE 62 
B. ROME 1025 (NOTAL) 
C. 04 ROME 22 
 
Classified By: A/POL MINCOUNS CANDACE PUTNAM, REASONS 1.4 
(B) AND (D). 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
1.  (C)  Italians will vote April 3-4 to elect new 
governments in 14 of Italy's 20 regions.  Most polls suggest 
that PM Berlusconi's center-right coalition will lose in at 
least two of these regions.  These elections are not direct 
predictors for next spring's national  elections for 
Parliament and Prime Minister, but they will launch intense 
campaigning for those races.  The center-left may make noisy 
claims about weakening Berlusconi; however, we do not expect 
the center-right's expected losses to threaten the stability 
of the longest-running Italian government since the end of 
World War II.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
2.  (U)  More than forty million Italians are eligible to 
vote April 3-4 to elect new governments in 14 of Italy's 20 
regions.  Some electors will also vote in local races for two 
provincial ("county") governments (in Viterbo, Lazio and 
Caserta, Campania) and 368 mayors and city councils.  Run-off 
elections in local races that require a candidate to be 
elected by 50 percent of the vote will be held April 17-18. 
(Since 2000, regional presidents are elected directly by 
voters.  The candidate receiving the most votes, even if less 
than 50 percent, wins.)  These elections will be followed on 
May 8-9 by local elections (provincial and municipal) in 
Sardinia, one of five autonomous regions that votes on a 
different schedule from Italy's regions governed by ordinary 
statute. 
 
3.  (U)  Currently, eight of the 14 regions holding elections 
are held by the center-right governing coalition.  (Of the 
six regions not voting this year, four are held by the 
center-left and two by the center-right, giving an even 10-10 
split among Italy's 20 regions.)  Most information suggests 
that the center-right will lose at least two of the regions 
it currently holds, and possibly more.  According to national 
polls published in early March, the two regions considered 
most likely to swing to the left are Liguria (historically 
left-leaning, see Milan septel) and Abruzzo. 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
LAUNCHING, NOT PREDICTING, THE NATIONAL CAMPAIGN 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
4.  (C)  The primary significance of the regional balloting 
is to launch intense campaigning for Italy's national 
elections, expected in spring 2006.  To a large degree, the 
campaign for those elections has been underway since Romano 
Prodi was still European Commission President (Ref C), but 
the regional vote will herald the opening of a more intense 
phase.  Barring an absolute rout for the governing coalition 
in the regions, Silvio Berlusconi is poised to be the first 
prime minister in Italy's post-War history to complete a full 
five-year term.  (We will report septel on the factors that 
will affect the timing of 2006 national elections.) 
 
5.  (SBU)  Regional elections are not a direct predictor for 
national voting.  Voters are motivated by different issues, 
and indeed in some cases are not motivated much at all to 
vote in regional/local races.  Italians look to national and 
municipal governments to provide services and implement 
policies important to them; regional governments (created in 
the 1970s) do not hold historical resonance for Italian 
voters. 
 
6.  (SBU)  This holds true even more for center-right voters, 
who in general are less disciplined party "militants."  The 
average supporter of Prime Minister Berlusconi's Forza Italia 
(FI) party, for example, would not dream of participating in 
a street demonstration, was not inspired by the thought of 
selecting a European parliamentarian in 2004, and may or may 
not vote in a local race.  These tendencies hold, if more 
mildly, for supporters of center-right coalition partners 
National Alliance (AN, the party of FM/DPM Fini) and the 
Union of Christian Democrats of the Center (UDC, the party of 
DPM Follini).  The Northern League (Lega, the party of former 
Minister for Reform Umberto Bossi) is the exception, as a 
primarily regional party that emerged to address 
regional/local concerns.  Thus, the center-right normally 
 
 
fares worse in non-national campaigns.  It is expected to do 
so again in these elections. 
 
-------------------------- 
THE SGRENA/CALIPARI FACTOR 
-------------------------- 
 
7.  (C)  The March 4 shooting by U.S. military personnel near 
Baghdad of Italian security officer Nicola Calipari, who was 
escorting rescued hostage Giuliana Sgrena for repatriation 
from Iraq, had the potential to impact regional elections, 
even though such votes are not normally influenced by 
international issues.  However, we believe this will be a 
non-issue in the campaign because of public perception that 
PM Berlusconi stood up to the United States for Italy's 
interests and successfully pressed for a joint investigation. 
We do not see it as a factor in the elections, although the 
PM himself may have secured some political boost from his 
handling of the matter.  (Ref B) 
 
------------------------------------ 
CENTER-RIGHT BRACES FOR A SETBACK -- 
BUT BERLUSCONI WILL STILL BE HERE 
------------------------------------ 
 
8.  (C)  The center-right majority is bracing for setbacks in 
regional voting.  The PM on March 3 declared his intention to 
stay out of regional campaigning, thereby distancing his 
popularity from the expected negative results.  Berlusconi 
has now agreed to stand with Fini and Follini at the side of 
the center-right (AN) candidate for the Lazio (Rome's region) 
presidency, Francesco Storace, during his closing April 1 
rally.  The about-face indicates the seriousness with which 
the majority views signs of movement away from the 
center-right, exacerbated by a decision by Italy's highest 
administrative justice body, the Council of State, to allow 
the tiny far-right Social Alternative (SA) party of 
Alessandra Mussolini (granddaughter of Benito Mussolini) to 
run in Lazio.  SA had been barred by Lazio's Regional 
Administrative Tribunal for collecting fraudulent signatures 
to support its participation.  With that decision overturned, 
even a small percentage of right votes going to Mussolini's 
party could jeopardize Storace's campaign.  The center-right 
wants to avoid the loss of this key (and previously 
considered fairly safe) region. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
9.  (C)  The center-left can be expected to trumpet each and 
every win as a mandate for Romano Prodi and his coalition in 
next year's national elections.  In fact, we do not see the 
regional vote as predictive of national results.  These 
elections certainly will launch intense campaigning for the 
2006 contests.  Barring an unlikely rout, however, we do not 
expect the loss of a few regional elections to threaten the 
stability of the Berlusconi government. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
NNNN 
	2005ROME01058 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL