US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1927

C O N F I D E N T I A L TEL AVIV 001927 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/29/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREF, KWBG, IS, GOI INTERNAL, GAZA DISENGAGEMENT 
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM BILL FAILS, BUT VOTE LEAVES LIKUD BADLY 
SPLIT 
 
REF: TEL AVIV 1896 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Norman Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b,d). 
 
1.  (C) The landslide defeat of the disengagement referendum 
bill in a 72-39 Knesset vote March 28 was achieved mainly 
with the help of opposition parties, whose votes countered 
the 27 Likud MKs who broke with Prime Minister Sharon and 
supported the bill.  The split in Likud poses no threat to 
Sharon's government before disengagement since those MKs who 
want to topple Sharon and/or derail disengagement currently 
lack a political vehicle to do so; the referendum bill was 
defeated and, with Shinui's support guaranteed, the budget is 
virtually assured passage in the March 29 or 30 vote 
(reftel).  In addition, with the pro-disengagement and 
secular Shinui Party leading a diverse opposition composed of 
the religious Shas party, the religious Zionist parties, 
left-wing Yahad, and three Arab parties, no combination of 
opposition parties is likely to emerge with a unifying issue 
that could rally the necessary 61-MK majority to topple the 
government via no-confidence votes. 
 
2.  (C) The next political challenge facing Sharon -- and one 
he should easily overcome -- lies not in the Knesset, but in 
the June-July Cabinet votes on implementation of each of the 
four phases of the disengagement plan.  Sharon has enough 
votes to move disengagement through the Cabinet, but the 
split among Likud ministers leaves Sharon dependent on the 
votes of his eight Labor Party ministers.  Currently, out of 
the 14 Likud Ministers in the 23-seat Cabinet, only about 
half support disengagement.  Sharon has one vacant Cabinet 
seat that he will likely fill with some Likud MK who has been 
loyal to Sharon and who supports disengagement. 
 
3.  (C) The real ramifications of the Likud split will show 
up in the run-up to the next elections, which are scheduled 
to take place at the end of 2006.  Polls indicate that Sharon 
would easily win over his arch-rival, Finance Minister and 
disengagement skeptic Binyamin Netanyahu, if party-wide 
primaries to choose Likud's candidate for prime minister were 
held today.  The 12 MKs who voted with Sharon against the 
referendum bill, including Sharon's son Omri, are much more 
at risk because the right-of-Sharon Likud Central Committee, 
which supported a disengagement referendum, draws up the 
party list from which MKs are elected.  Sharon's coattails 
may not be long enough or strong enough to bring these MKs 
along with him. 
 
4.  (C) Ironically, the 13-MK Likud group (including Sharon) 
that voted against the referendum bill, is a numerical mirror 
image of the 13-MK Likud group ("rebels") that has 
persistently opposed disengagement and conditioned its 
support for the budget on Sharon holding a disengagement 
referendum.  As Yedioth Ahronoth journalist Nahum Barnea 
wrote March 29, "...the internal situation in the Likud has 
been reversed (by the referendum vote): those who were 
considered until yesterday to be a rebellious minority are 
now the majority, and those who were thought of as the 
majority are now the faction of rebels... They violated the 
express decision made by the party institutions.... Sharon is 
now the leader of a small and frightened camp." 
 
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KURTZER