US embassy cable - 05YEREVAN553

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000553 
 
SIPDIS 
 
TBILISI PLEASE PASS GENERAL WALD 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: AJ, AM, PARM, PBTS, PREL 
SUBJECT: LETTER TO SECRETARY RICE FROM ARMENIAN FM OSKANIAN 
 
 
 Sensitive But Unclassified; Protect Accordingly 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On the margins of hearings today in the 
Armenian National Assembly on Nagorno-Karabagh (SEPTEL), 
Foreign Minister Oskanian passed the following letter to 
embassy representatives of Minsk Group co-Chairs, addressed 
to Ministers.  The letter raises concerns about the 
possibility of the issue of settlements in the occupied 
territories being reintroduced at the U.N., the recent 
clashes on the Line of Contact, and the perceived danger of a 
renewed conflict. 
 
2. (SBU) BEGIN TEXT: 
 
28 March, 2005 
 
Dear Secretary Rice, 
 
There are two matters that I would call to your attention, in 
your capacity as Minsk Group Co-Chair. 
 
First, on the OSCE Minsk Group Fact-Finding Mission to the 
Territories Surrounding Nagorno Karabakh.  The Mission has 
officially presented its report to the OSCE Permanent 
Council.  We are thankful to you for the work your 
representatives did in making the Mission productive, 
effective, objective, and in many ways, conclusive. 
 
Armenia believes that the most important accomplishment of 
the Fact Finding Mission Report is that it can put to rest 
Azerbaijan,s concerns.  The Fact Finding Mission was created 
and launched because Azerbaijan claimed, through a resolution 
they wished to present at the UN, that there was intentional, 
massive, coordinated settlement policy that would harm the 
negotiation process.  Armenia agreed to facilitate a 
fact-finding mission and Azerbaijan agreed in return not to 
take any action on its UN resolution and suspend the 
initiative. 
 
The OSCE Fact Finding Mission found neither settlement 
policies by Armenia nor any serious settlements.  Those 
random settlers who were found in the territories surrounding 
Nagorno Karabakh are refugees from regions of Azerbaijan, and 
they clearly indicated their desire to return to their homes 
upon the settlement of the conflict.  We believe Azerbaijan 
should be pleased with the results, since they stipulate that 
there is no manipulation of the situation on the ground, and 
that indeed, all decisions can be made at the negotiating 
table. 
 
However, Azerbaijan,s individual and institutional 
statements misquote and misstate4 the report, its 
observations and conclusions.  Instead, Azerbaijan appears 
intent on creating a new situation, simply by repeating its 
allegations, now thoroughly disproven. 
 
Further, they continue to speak of raising this issue at the 
UN, in spite of an agreement that they would let this die, 
once a fact-finding mission takes place.  Therefore, if 
Azerbaijan were to breach this agreement, it would lead to a 
total loss of trust by Armenians in Azerbaijan as a serious 
partner in peace. 
 
I wanted to call your attention to this potentially erosive 
situation.  Secondly, please allow me to highlight the 
unusually high number of clashes which have taken place 
recently on the Line of Contact between Azerbaijani and 
Nagorno Karabakh forces, as well as on the 
Armenian-Azerbaijan border.  This is cause for alarm. 
 
The Line of Contact, as the cease-fire itself, is 
self-monitored, and has been so, since 1994.  Incidents on 
the Line of Contact have been infrequent over the years.  We 
have frequently asked that a mechanism be created to 
reinforce and protect the established lines which are the 
most conducive to maintaining the peace. 
 
During this last month however, the intensity and frequency 
of clashes have increased noticeably.  The Azerbaijani press, 
as a rule, blames Armenians for these violations.  First, let 
me categorically state the obvious:  Armenia does not want 
the cease-fire to be violated, and has no interest in 
initiating any irregular or unusual activit6y on the Line of 
Contact or at the border.  Each of these violations has been 
of Azerbaijani instigation.  In fact, in many places, not 
only have they fired on Armenian positions, but they have 
also registered forward movement of their positions.  Of 
course, as the two sides come in closer proximity, then 
further clashes become more probable. 
 
This is of course of grave concern.  It is not the main 
danger, however.  These Azerbaijani actions are combined with 
increased war-mongering, heightened rhetoric and militaristic 
statements at the highest levels.  Thus the possibility, and 
even the inevitability of war, becomes a commonplace. 
Indeed, both the Azerbaijani President and Defense Minister 
have clearly said, more than once, that war can start at any 
time.  These statements, combined with past and present 
Azerbaijani actions, give us serious reason to worry that 
Azerbaijan will in fact take steps to start a new war. 
We believe that the fundamental reason for the recurrence of 
these abuses is that Azerbaijan is assured of impunity.  They 
know that even when such encroachments are obvious and 
visible, and Azerbaijan has clearly violated the ceasefire 
and advanced, no one will criticize or condemn their actions. 
 As a result, they can and do breach the ceasefire again and 
again. 
 
It is essential that the co-chair countries use their 
resources to confirm today,s positions, by the use of 
satellite photos, or any other appropriate technology.  Such 
a record, shared by the co-chairs and the sides, can be used 
as a point of irrefutable reference, and can lead to public 
condemnation of each violation.  We are convinced that this 
would serve as serious deterrence for either side 
contemplating provocation, or actually advancing forward, or 
blaming and accusing the other side. 
 
I cannot overstate the seriousness of our concern.  Our 
partners on the other side are, unfortunately, not just new 
to the negotiating table, but also new to war.  They did not 
live through the bloody battles of the early 1990s and may be 
under the very false impression that they can resolve this 
issue militarily.  If that were true, this conflict would 
have been already resolved, since there was indeed a war and 
there was a victor.  Our two peoples should not have to pay 
the price of finding that out again. 
 
If Azerbaijan persists in its miscalculated provocations, 
they can indeed restart the war.  We urge you to join us in 
taking steps to prevent this. 
 
Therefore, Excellency, I urgently request that you take note 
of this serious risk.  We would request that the matter of 
creating a mechanism to monitor the cease-fire be created. 
We would advocate that the co-chairs place this matter on the 
agenda of the two presidents at their next meeting.  Further 
military uncertainties and instability is not what this 
region needs. 
 
Allow me to thank you once again for the valuable work of the 
OSCE co-chair countries and to express our hope that despite 
these two alarming phenomena, a way will be found to continue 
negotiations within the OSCE Minsk group framework, and reach 
a lasting peace. 
 
Sincerely, 
 
/s/ 
 
Vartan Oskanian 
 
END TEXT 
 
3. (U)  Hearings are continuing as we approach CoB local time 
and will resume tomorrow. 
EVANS