US embassy cable - 05TELAVIV1918

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TEL AVIV 001918 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CODEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2010 
TAGS: PREL, KWBG, OREP, IS, ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, SETTLEMENTS, GOI EXTERNAL 
SUBJECT: CODEL PELOSI URGES FM SHALOM NOT TO ALLOW 
SETTLEMENT EXPANSION, OUTPOSTS AND THE FENCE TO DERAIL PEACE 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Daniel C. Kurtzer for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) 
. 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY: In a March 21 meeting with Codel Pelosi, 
Foreign Minister Shalom spoke positively about the direction 
of Israeli relations with the PA and other Arab neighbors. 
While lauding some of President Abbas's steps, he said the PA 
had failed so far to resolve to dismantle terrorist 
infrastructure.  Several members of the Codel expressed 
concern that settlement expansion, a failure to deal with 
outposts, and construction of the separation barrier could 
impede momentum towards peace, an outcome they urged the GOI 
to avoid.  Shalom defended the fence as a temporary and 
reversible measure for saving lives.  He noted that reports 
suggesting that the GOI might legalize outposts referred only 
to outposts built before March, 2001, and thus were not a 
subject of Israel's roadmap commitments.  Israeli settlement 
expansion, he suggested, is for natural growth.  On regional 
issues, Shalom said Arab leaders are now more willing to deal 
with Israel, and underlined Israel's interest in seeing Syria 
withdraw from Lebanon.  He underlined, as well, what he 
termed the Iranian nuclear threat, and Israel's desire to 
find a diplomatic solution to it.  He told the Codel that the 
U.S. could send a positive signal to Israelis by lifting the 
warning in its travel advisory for Israel.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2. (SBU) Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom reviewed the state of 
relations with the Palestinians and Arab states, 
Lebanon/Syria, and Iran in a March 21 meeting with Codel 
Pelosi and the Ambassador.  He also complained about the 
State Department travel advisory for Israel.  Codel members 
were House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Representatives 
Darrell Issa, Henry Waxman, George Miller, Edward Markey, 
Anna Eshoo, James McGovern, and Linda Sanchez. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Assessing Progress with the Palestinians 
---------------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Shalom said Israel is trying hard to make progress 
with the PA, and pointed to Israel's commitments to release 
prisoners and turn over security authority in five West Bank 
towns.  He credited President Abbas with stopping the firing 
of Qassam rockets, delivering the right message in public, 
and stopping incitement on television.  He criticized Abbas, 
however, for not moving forward with the dismantlement of 
terrorist infrastructure, and for not ending incitement in 
schools and textbooks. 
 
4. (C) Rep. Waxman commented that the Codel had just heard 
PLO negotiator Sa'eb Erekat complain that the PA has 
difficulty convincing the Palestinian people of Israel's 
peaceful intentions when the GOI is proceeding with 
settlement expansion and fence construction, and not stopping 
settlers from erecting outposts.  The PA needs to have 
confidence in Israel's commitment to the peace process, just 
as Israel needs confidence in the PA commitment to combat 
terrorism, Waxman said. 
 
5. (C) Rep. Miller noted reports that day from the Israeli 
media claiming that PM Sharon intends to "legalize" outposts 
in exchange for support from disengagement opponents on the 
2005 budget.  "We all know political bootstrapping when we 
see it," Miller commented, but expressed concern that the 
parties to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are "falling back 
into the same old patterns."  Hope expressed in other parts 
of the region about the peace process, he said, is "less 
obvious" as one gets closer to Israel. 
 
6. (C) Noting the strong messages of support for Israel that 
she said she received from her constituents before leaving on 
this trip, Rep. Eshoo expressed her hope that the 
settlements, outposts and fence issues would not become 
obstacles to peace.  She said the Codel was savvy enough to 
recognize the "theatrics" in PA complaints about Israeli 
actions, but urged the GOI not to allow outposts to be "a 
finger in the eye" of the Palestinians. 
 
7. (C) Observing that this is not the first "moment of hope" 
for the peace process, Rep. McGovern commented that peace 
depends on Abbas's ability to show that he can "control a 
viable, contiguous state."  The GOI, he said, therefore needs 
to help Abbas enhance his credibility by allowing him to 
demonstrate that his leadership has meant a "difference on 
the ground." 
 
8. (C) FM Shalom defended Israel's construction of the 
separation barrier as a temporary and reversible action that 
has already demonstrated its value in saving lives.  Israel, 
he said, has been targeted by 22,000 terrorist acts in the 
course of the current Intifada, and terrorists continue to 
plan attacks daily.  No other state would have hesitated to 
build a barrier after only 22 attacks, he asserted, and 
alluded to the fence along California's border with Mexico. 
9. (C) On outposts, Shalom pointed out that the media reports 
cited by Rep. Miller spoke of the GOI legalizing only those 
outposts erected before March, 2001.  The roadmap, however, 
obligates Israel to dismantle outposts erected since March, 
2001.  Shalom then pointed to the political resistance PM 
Sharon faces in moving forward with disengagement.  Rep. 
Miller responded that GOI leadership cannot allow opponents 
to derail the disengagement process.  Rep. Issa added that 
democratic governments cannot use the excuse that they are 
democracies to avoid fulfilling international commitments 
such as those in the roadmap.  Shalom responded that the GOI 
is exceeding its roadmap commitments by taking steps not 
called for in the roadmap, such as releasing prisoners and 
discussing development of a Gaza seaport.  He commented, as 
well, that Israel has built no new settlements for years. 
The GOI, however, cannot ignore that families living in 
existing settlements are growing and need more housing. 
 
--------------- 
Regional Issues 
--------------- 
 
10. (C) Shalom said that the atmosphere for Israel's 
relations with the Arab world has improved.  The combination 
of Arafat's death, Saddam's removal, and Qaddafi's change of 
course has left Arab leaders feeling freer to deal with 
Israel, he said.  He pointed to the Iraqi and Palestinian 
elections, Mubarak's opening of Egypt's presidential 
election, and events in Lebanon as ominous signs to 
authoritarian Arab regimes.  The fact that ordinary Lebanese 
are now "asking for their freedom and sovereignty" is 
potentially good news for Israel, he continued.  Israel has 
no conflict with Lebanon and always supported an end to the 
Syrian occupation of Lebanon.  Syria, he charged, runs the 
world's second largest drug industry (after Colombia) in 
Lebanon. 
 
11. (C) Turning to Iran, Shalom commented that most of the 
world realized only recently that Iran's development of a 
nuclear capability and its support for terrorism is a problem 
for everyone, not just Israel.  Iran's development of 
missiles capable of reaching European capitals awoke the 
Europeans to the threat that Iran's "tyrannical regime could 
attack the whole world."  The EU-3 effort to deal with the 
threat, while putatively based on a carrot-and-stick 
approach, appears to be all carrot and no stick, he 
commented, calling for referral of Iran to the UN Security 
Council. 
 
12. (C) Rep. Pelosi noted that the Codel, during a visit to 
Beirut the day before, had heard Lebanese leaders say that 
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict would have a 
huge, positive impact on Lebanon.  Mubarak and King Abdallah 
had both described themselves as more optimistic than ever 
about prospects for peace.  On Iran, she cautioned that 
Russia, China and the Europeans are unlikely to be of 
significant help in dealing with Iran's nuclear program 
because all have incentives for good relations with Iran, 
such as a need for Iranian oil and an interest in military 
sales to Iran.  Just as the U.S. and Israel expect these 
countries to avoid supplying Iran with WMD-related 
technology, so does the U.S. expect our ally, Israel, to 
avoid transferring technology to China that could ultimately 
be turned against U.S. forces.  Issa echoed the latter point, 
commenting that friends must look out for friends when 
selling weapons to third countries. 
 
13. (C) Pointing to Israel's foresight in destroying Iraq's 
Osirak nuclear facility in 1981, Rep. Markey asked whether 
Israel now "reserves the right" to respond to a similar 
nuclear threat from Iran.  Shalom responded that Israel is 
now trying to pursue a diplomatic solution.  While concurring 
in general with Rep. Pelosi's comments about Russian and 
Chinese interests in preserving good relations with Iran, he 
commented that Russia has become more cooperative in efforts 
to block the Iranian nuclear program.  While Iran may believe 
that it "bought" China's vote on the UNSC with a large oil 
deal, China might not cast its veto in Iran's favor, Shalom 
suggested, because the PRC also needs to preserve its trading 
relationship with the West. 
 
--------------- 
Travel Advisory 
--------------- 
 
14. (SBU) Shalom called for the USG to lift the warning about 
travel to Israel in the State Department travel advisory. 
Given the changes taking place in the Israeli-Palestinian 
relationship, and the difficult decision Israel has taken to 
leave Gaza, a change in the travel advisory, he asserted, 
would show the Israeli population that its efforts are 
bearing fruit.  He said that other governments claim that 
they cannot realistically be expected to change their travel 
advisories for Israel before the USG does so.  Rep. Issa 
commented that the HIRC is looking into possible changes in 
the travel advisory process.  He said he views the process as 
"flawed" because advisories, apart from urgent updates, are 
reviewed only annually.  The process should find a way, he 
said, to "reward the outbreak of peace." 
 
15. (U) The Codel did not clear this cable. 
 
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