US embassy cable - 05PARIS2052

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 002052 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, AORC, KWBG, EG, FR 
SUBJECT: MUBARAK IN PARIS:  CHIRAC URGES KEEPING 
PRESSURE 
ON SYRIA 
 
 
Classified By:  Political Minister Counselor Josiah 
Rosenblatt 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Receiving Egyptian President Mubarak 
in Paris March 24, President Jacques Chirac stressed the 
necessity of maintaining firm pressure on Syria until it 
withdraws its armed forces and intelligence services 
fully from Lebanon, before elections this spring. 
Mubarak, who had met Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad at 
the March 22-23 Arab League Summit in Algiers, said 
Bashar had promised to complete the withdrawal; the 
Egyptian  president added that he believed Syria would 
submit a precise timetable for its withdrawal to the UN 
within a week.  An advisor to Chirac who was present 
told us that Mubarak made a strong pitch for Egypt's 
candidacy for a permanent seat on the UN Security 
Council, receiving a noncommittal French response.  On 
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Mubarak recalled his 
role in hosting the Sharon-Abbas meeting in Sharm el- 
Sheikh and in bringing Palestinian groups together, but 
was circumspect about the possibility of Sharon taking 
the next step after Gaza withdrawal, given what Mubarak 
assessed to be Sharon's tenuous domestic political 
standing.  He commented that Jordan would have been 
better able to manage its proposal for Arab state 
normalization with Israel if King Abdallah had attended 
the Algiers summit.  Mubarak deflected questions about 
Ayman Nour, the only declared opposition candidate for 
the September presidential elections in Egypt, by 
claiming that there was incontrovertible evidence of 
Nour's involvement in fraud.  Mubarak reportedly evinced 
"a little exasperation" with U.S. efforts to persuade 
him to move more forthrightly on political reform.  He 
was pessimistic on Iraq, believing the security 
situation was still far from being under control. 
End summary. 
 
Chirac's main message:  Syria must leave Lebanon 
 
2.  (C)  President Chirac met first with Mubarak one-on- 
one to discuss Syria/Lebanon, Elysee Advisor for the 
Middle East and North Africa Dominique Boche told us 
March 25.  Chirac's central message was to encourage 
Mubarak to keep the pressure on Syria for full military 
and intelligence services withdrawal from Lebanon as 
soon as possible, and certainly before the spring 
elections.  Chirac emphasized that the international 
community "could not stop half-way" in its efforts to 
compel Syria to comply with UN Security Council 
Resolution 1559.  To do so would only invite the Syrians 
to delay and re-establish themselves indefinitely in 
Lebanon.  Both in his response to Chirac, and in an 
interview he gave to the French daily Le Figaro, which 
appeared March 25, Mubarak said he believed Syria would 
complete its withdrawal soon.  He recalled that he had 
met Bashar at the just-concluded Arab League Summit in 
Algiers and Bashar had promised him that he would 
complete the withdrawal.  Mubarak told Chirac (and Le 
Figaro) that he believed Syria would submit a precise 
timetable for the withdrawal to the UN within a week. 
He said he had pressed Bashar hard in their meeting, 
warning him that he was isolated internationally and 
that he had to conform with 1559, according to Boche. 
Bashar also promised not to interfere in Lebanon's 
election, Mubarak told Le Figaro. 
 
3.  (C)  Boche said that since he was not in the one-on- 
one meeting he did not know whether Chirac discussed 
with Mubarak the two recent bombings in Christian 
communities near Beirut.  The Egyptian president told 
Le Figaro, which did ask the question, that people should 
be cautious about assigning blame for these attacks to 
Syria.  He said that a few such incidents were not unusual, 
given the circumstances in Lebanon, and that he did not 
believe they would lead to renewed civil war.  Asked by 
the newspaper about the investigation into the assassination 
of former Prime Minister Hariri, Mubarak did not mention 
Syria, assigning no blame to Damascus for either omission or 
commission.  Instead, he evoked the possibility of a shadowy 
"foreign hand" intent on "sowing discord or setting a trap 
for Syria.  Anything is possible," Mubarak asserted.  As 
with the bombings, Boche told us he did not know whether 
Chirac raised the investigation or the Fitzgerald report 
with Mubarak. 
 
Mubarak's pitch for a permanent UNSC seat for Egypt 
 
4.  (C)  During the luncheon, at which Boche was 
present, Mubarak made a concerted appeal for French 
support for Egypt's bid for a permanent UNSC seat. 
Mubarak acknowledged that Egypt had gotten a late start 
in promoting its candidacy.  He argued that a continent 
as large and diverse as Africa could not be represented 
on the Security Council exclusively by two sub-Saharan, 
Anglophone states.  In a pitch which struck Boche as 
amusing, in as much as it was delivered in English, 
Mubarak told Chirac that Egypt would speak for North 
African and francophone interests, and thus contribute 
to a more complete reflection of the continent's 
diversity.  Mubarak suggested that Egypt be part of a 
rotation of holders of an African permanent seat, and 
made no reference to Egypt or any other African state 
having the veto.  Boche said Chirac responded 
noncommittally, suggesting to Mubarak that it was up to 
the candidate countries to promote their own 
candidacies.  Privately, Boche said, France is skeptical 
about the rotating seat concept. 
 
5.  (C)  Mubarak recalled his role in hosting the 
meeting between Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and 
Palestinian Authority President Abbas in Sharm el-Sheikh 
and in assembling rival Palestinian groups in Egypt for 
dialogue.  He deflected a question from Le Figaro as to 
whether he would invite Sharon to Cairo, saying he had 
invited him to Sharm, "and that's in Egypt, isn't it," 
Mubarak quipped.  When the journalist pressed, Mubarak 
said that "Sharon would be well advised to give 
something to (improve) Palestinian public opinion.  That 
would help us to reinforce our cooperation."  Privately, 
Mubarak told Chirac that he was not confident that 
Sharon would proceed with withdrawal from the West Bank 
once the Gaza withdrawal was completed because of what 
Mubarak assessed to be Sharon's tenuous domestic 
political standing.  He added that he thought the U.S. 
role in encouraging Israel to move forward with the 
process was essential.  Boche said that Egyptian-Israeli 
cooperation on patrolling their common border once 
Israeli forces began to pull out of Gaza was not 
discussed.  Mubarak was asked about this by Le Figaro, 
replying that Israel had not yet agreed to such 
discussions.  Mubarak told Chirac that Jordan would have 
been better placed to try to advance its proposal for 
Arab state normalization with Israel had King Abdallah 
attended the Arab League Summit.  Mubarak appeared 
irritated that so many of his fellow Arab heads of 
state, including several of the most moderate, had 
stayed away from Algiers, leaving him with the likes of 
Qaddhafi and Bashar, Boche said.  Mubarak told Le Figaro 
that the Jordanian proposal had come as a surprise to 
Arab Leaders and "appeared to be a retreat from the 
recommendations of the 2002 Beirut (Arab League) Summit, 
which we want to reactivate." 
 
Arab reform 
 
6.  (C)  Mubarak also appeared to take umbrage with what 
he implied was undue U.S. pressure for democratic reform 
in the Arab world, and specifically in Egypt, according 
to Boche. Chirac asked about the situation of Ayman Nour, 
the only declared opposition candidate for September's 
presidential election in Egypt, to which Mubarak replied 
that Nour had been arrested because there was solid 
evidence of his involvement in fraud.  Mubarak asserted 
that he had initiated reform in Egypt 20 years ago. 
Egypt, he said, was a great nation and did not need advice 
from anyone on how to manage its internal affairs, Boche 
said. Asked about U.S. pressure for reform by Le Figaro, 
Mubarak avoided controversy, saying reports that he was 
coming under pressure from the U.S. were "not true."  He 
went on to tell the newspaper, with regard to the 
"Kefaya" protest, that "certain movements are piloted 
from outside."  Mubarak declined to state whether he 
would be a candidate for re-election and said there was 
"no truth" to reports that his son, Gamal, would be a 
candidate.  He told the newspaper that the continuing 
state of emergency, in place since 1981, was necessary 
to combat terrorism.  He also said he opposed term limits 
for the president because this would "hinder the free 
will of the people."  Nor could he accept any limitation 
of the powers of the president because this would mean 
that the prime minister "would be subject to pressures 
which he could not face up to," adding that "the president 
of the republic is the guarantee of stability." 
 
Iraq 
 
7.  (C)  Finally, on Iraq, Mubarak publicly welcomed the 
January elections as "clearly a good thing for Iraq" and 
encouraged Sunnis "to participate in the political 
process and the elaboration of a constitution." Privately, 
Mubarak told Chirac that he was not optimistic about Iraq's 
future because the security situation was far from being 
under control. 
LEACH