US embassy cable - 05PARIS2051

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002051 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - KYRGYZSTAN REVOLUTION - U.S. 
- RUSSIAN INFLUENCE AFGHANISTAN - TALIBAN REGIME 
PARIS - TUESDAY, MARCH 29, 2005 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
1. KYRGYZSTAN REVOLUTION - U.S. - RUSSIAN INFLUENCE 
2. AFGHANISTAN - TALIBAN REGIME 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
DOMESTIC POLITICS DOMINATE TODAY'S FRONT PAGES AND 
COMMENTARIES, WITH RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO LEADING WITH THE 
RESULTS OF ITS LATEST IPSOS-EUROPE ONE POLL ON THE EUROPEAN 
CONSTITUTION. THE RESULTS SHOW THAT 54 PERCENT OF THE FRENCH 
WOULD VOTE `NO' TO THE CONSTITUTION; 46 PERCENT ARE SAID TO 
VOTE IN FAVOR. THE POLL ALSO SHOWS THAT A MAJORITY OF 
SOCIALISTS (53%) WILL VOTE `NO.' THE FIGARO COMMENTS: "IN THE 
PAST TEN DAYS THIS IS THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE POLL SHOWING A 
VICTORY OF THE `NO.'" 
 
POLITICAL CHANGE IN KYRGYSZTAN IS ALSO DEBATED. IN LE FIGARO, 
GERARD CHALIAND, A SPECIALIST IN GEO-STRATEGY WHO HAS RECENTLY 
PENNED A BOOK ENTITLED "FROM ONE IRAQ WAR TO THE NEXT," 
COMMENTS ON THE CHANGES IN RUSSIA'S PERIPHERY, AND ALSO ON 
U.S. INFLUENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST. (SEE PART C) 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION DEVOTES A TWO-PAGE REPORT TO THE 
"END OF THE TALEBAN." IN HIS EDITORIAL, PATRICK SABATIER WARNS 
AGAINST CRYING VICTORY IN AFGHANISTAN TOO SOON. AS PART OF THE 
SAME REPORT, OLIVIER ROY, AN EXPERT ON THE MIDDLE EAST, 
COMMENTS ON THE "SUCCESS OF HAMID KARZAI. HE MANAGED THINGS 
WELL AND THE AMERICANS ACTED WITH MORE TALENT IN AFGHANISTAN 
THAN IN IRAQ." (SEE PART C) 
 
RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY L'EXPRESS CARRIES A REPORT ON TWO OF 
PRESIDENT BUSH'S NOMINATIONS, BOLTON AND WOLFOWITZ. PHILIPPE 
COSTE WRITES: "ARE THESE TWO UNILATERALIST HAWKS THE 
INSTRUMENTS OF AN AMERICAN PLOT AGAINST INTERNATIONAL 
INSTITUTIONS? NOT SO FAST! BOTH MEN WILL DO WELL. BOLTON, WHO 
CANNOT BE ACCUSED OF COMPLACENCY TOWARDS THE UN. COULD WELL 
HELP TO IMPROVE THE INSTITUTION'S CREDIBILITY. AS FOR 
WOLFOWITZ, HIS EXCELLENCE AS FORMER AMBASSADOR TO INDONESIA 
AND HIS ATTRACTION TO NATION BUILDING LEAD US TO THINK HE WILL 
PAY SPECIAL ATTENTION TO GOOD GOVERNANCE AND TO THE FIGHT 
AGAINST CORRUPTION." 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION BEGINS A FOUR-PART CARTOON ON IRAQ 
BY JOE SACCO, COMMISSIONED BY THE GUARDIAN, WHILE SACCO WAS 
EMBEDDED WITH A U.S. MARINE DETACHMENT. SACCO IS INTERVIEWED 
ABOUT EMBEDDED JOURNALISTS: "IT IS LESS DANGEROUS WHEN IN IRAQ 
TO BE EMBEDDED THAN TO MOVE AROUND AMONG CIVILIANS. BUT WHEN 
YOU ARE WITH THE MARINES, YOU BEGIN TO SHARE THEIR PARANOIA 
AND THEIR FEAR. I WANTED TO SHOW THAT, FROM THEIR POINT OF 
VIEW, ANYONE CAN BECOME A POTENTIAL THREAT, AND OF COURSE THIS 
IS NOT THE BEST WAY TO WIN OVER HEARTS. IT JUST DOES NOT WORK. 
AS AN EMBED, A JOURNALIST LOSES HIS DISTANCE. EMBEDDING 
JOURNALISTS IS NOT A GOOD THING. YOU BECOME TOO CLOSE TO THE 
SOLDIERS. JOURNALISTS MUST THEN ATTEMPT TO SEPARATE THEIR 
FEELINGS FROM THEIR PERCEPTION OF REALITY." 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
KYRGYZSTAN REVOLUTION - U.S. - RUSSIAN INFLUENCE 
 
"RUSSIA'S LOSS OF INFLUENCE" 
GERARD CHALIAND IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/29): "FOR 
YEARS NOW WASHINGTON HAS BEEN HELPING IN THE ROLLBACK OF 
RUSSIA'S INFLUENCE IN COUNTRIES FROM THE WARSAW PACT. THREE 
BALTIC NATIONS HAVE BECOME NATO AND EU MEMBERS. NATO HAS 
BECOME, IN ADDITION TO A MILITARY PACT, A DIPLOMATIC 
INSTRUMENT. AMERICA'S POPULARITY IN THESE NATIONS CLOSE TO 
RUSSIA IS CONSIDERABLE. THIS IS NOT THE CASE, EXCEPT FOR A FEW 
EXCEPTIONS, IN PUBLIC OPINION IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ONE MIGHT 
EVEN SAY THAT IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST, THE MORE A REGIME IS 
PRO-AMERICAN, THE LESS THE POPULATION FAVORS THE U.S. NOTHING 
OF THE KIND IS HAPPENING ON RUSSIA'S DOORSTEP. EVERYTHING IS 
POINTING TO RUSSIA BEING UNABLE TO BE MORE THAN A REGIONAL 
POWER IN THE FUTURE. UNDER WASHINGTON'S INFLUENCE, AMERICA'S 
ALLIES ARE STICKING TOGETHER IN THAT REGION. WASHINGTON'S 
FOREIGN POLICY SEEMS TO HAVE GARNERED MORE SUCCESS IN RUSSIA'S 
PERIPHERY THAN IN THE MIDDLE EAST. IRAQ IS A HUGE MESS, SYRIA 
HAS FOR A LONG TIME BEEN THE WEAK LINK AND LEBANON IS STILL A 
NATION WHERE RELIGIOUS GROUPS PUT THEIR PARTISAN INTERESTS 
ABOVE THE NATIONAL INTEREST." 
 
AFGHANISTAN - TALIBAN REGIME 
 
"THE TALIBAN, A SPECIES ON THE WANE" 
PATRICK SABATIER IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (03/29): "IF THE 
TALIBAN ARE TODAY A DYING SPECIES, IT IS BECAUSE PAKISTAN HAS 
DECIDED TO SACRIFICE THEM TO AVOID BEING CHECKMATED BY 
PRESIDENT BUSH. THE END OF THIS OBSCURANTIST GROUP IS GOOD 
NEWS. BUT THE COROLLARY IS THE SALE OF F-16 AIRCRAFT TO 
PAKISTAN. PRESIDENT BUSH'S ABSOLUTION OF MUSHARRAF IS A WAY OF 
THANKING HIM FOR HIS SUPPORT IN THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM. BUT 
WE SHOULD NOT UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF PAKISTAN IN THE 
FIGHT AGAINST NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, JUST BECAUSE WE HAVE 
SUCCESSFULLY COME TO TERMS WITH AFGHANISTAN'S ISLAMIC GROUPS. 
NEITHER SHOULD WE CRY VICTORY TOO SOON IN AFGHANISTAN, A 
COUNTRY WHICH IS CONVALESCING BUT IS STILL THREATENED WITH THE 
GANGRENE OF DRUG TRAFFIC." 
 
"KARZAI HAS MANAGED WELL" 
OLIVIER ROY IN LEFT-OF-CENTER LIBERATION (03/29): "PRESIDENT 
KARZAI HAS MANAGED PRETTY WELL AND THE AMERICANS HAVE DONE 
BETTER IN AFGHANISTAN THAN IN IRAQ, PARADOXICALLY, BECAUSE 
AFGHANISTAN DOES NOT REALLY INTEREST THEM. THEIR PRESENCE IN 
AFGHANISTAN HAS BEEN LESS INTRUSIVE THAN IN IRAQ. AND THEIR 
AMBASSADOR, WHO IS OF AFGHAN ANCESTRY, KNOWS THE COUNTRY WELL. 
HE KNOWS HOW TO SPEAK TO THE PEOPLE. BUT MOSTLY THE AMERICANS 
BROUGHT TO POWER HAMID KARZAI, WHO EMBODIES NATIONAL 
SOVEREIGNTY. IN IRAQ, TWO YEARS AFTER THE START OF THE WAR, 
IRAQI SOVEREIGNTY IS NOT FULLY RESTORED." LEACH