US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1496

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001496 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: 5/6/12 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: May 6-17 ROUND-UP 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 1323 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5 
(B) AND (D). 
 
 
1. (U) Summary. Political parties rail against the new 
Electoral Commission guidelines for party registration 
(paras 2-5). The Attorney General questions the 
constitutionality of the political compromise 
postponing local government elections to August (6- 
10). Presidential allies in the House of 
Representatives initiate impeachment motion against 
Speaker Na'Abba (11-12).  End Summary. 
 
 
 
 
------------------------ 
INEC GUIDELINES DRAW IRE 
------------------------ 
 
 
2. (C) The May 7 meeting between the political parties 
and the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) about 
the guidelines for party registration was acrimonious. 
According to the guidelines, the groups that filed 
documents stating their intent to register as a 
political party could participate in the upcoming 
local elections. However, only those capturing at 
least ten percent of the local government votes in 24 
states would be allowed to contest the 2003 state and 
national elections. Most party representatives at the 
meeting complained the guidelines were 
unconstitutional and designed to bar their 
participation in the 2003 elections. The National 
Legal Advisor for the Alliance for Democracy (AD) 
recalled a leader of one of the political associations 
expostulating that INEC was squandering its 
opportunity to perform a great service to Nigerian 
democracy. Instead, by promulgating rules effectively 
barring multi-party participation, INEC was committing 
a great crime that would result in "blood being 
spilled." 
 
 
3. (C) The AD official claimed many attendees were 
incensed because they knew INEC had not drafted the 
guidelines. He asserted the guidelines were drafted in 
the Presidency and given to INEC, with INEC, in turn, 
handing them to the parties as an accomplished fact. 
He groused the meeting called by INEC was inaccurately 
billed as a consultation when, in fact, it was a pro 
forma meeting that gave the appearance of dialogue but 
had the substance of a dictate. 
 
 
4. (C) An APP official told Poloff that many in his 
party believed the guidelines were a ploy. As 
currently drafted, the guidelines made it hard for any 
party, including the ruling PDP, to register. He 
believed the Presidency actually wants many parties to 
contest in 2003 in order to keep the opposition 
fragmented. The current guidelines were intended to 
generate strong reaction from the new political 
associations. Then, INEC would present more lenient 
guidelines. This would demonstrate that INEC was 
"impartial" because it listened to the opposition 
while actually serving the Obasanjo electoral strategy 
of splintering the opposition. 
 
 
5. (C) Comment: Even by local standards, the 
machinations attributed to the INEC by the APP 
representative seem exceedingly obtuse. The AD 
official's assertion that the Presidency not INEC 
authored the guidelines seems more realistic. In any 
event, both statements reveal a deep distrust of INEC 
that does not portend well for the future. For 
elections to be credible, INEC must work hard to gain 
trust and be seen as a genuinely impartial 
administrator of the process. 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
IS DEAL ON LOCAL ELECTIONS UNCONSTITUTIONAL? 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
 
6. (C) Last month's deal between State Governors, 
State Assembly leaders and the President to reschedule 
local government elections from May 18 to August 10 
was a stroke of pragmatism in face of an impending 
emergency. INEC, which must administer voter and party 
registration, could not complete both tasks in time. 
May 18 elections would have disenfranchised the 
millions of voters who have become eligible since the 
1999 voters roll was published. The elections also 
would have barred the many still-to-be registered 
political associations. These significant exclusions 
would have undermined the legitimacy of the local 
government exercise. Several lawsuits were filed to 
stop the elections. According to opposition party 
officials, some hot-heads within the opposition groups 
were contemplating more muscular ways of disrupting 
the exercise. 
 
 
7. (C) Notwithstanding its utility in averting 
confrontation, the deal rests on uncertain legal 
footing. The bargain hinges on state governments 
enacting legislation to establish caretaker 
commitments to manage local government during the 
period between the May 29 termination of the current 
officers' tenures and the August election date. 
However, as stated reftel, the caretaker commitments 
are of questionable constitutionality. In a May 6 
public statement, Nigeria's Attorney General agreed 
with that analysis. Attorney General Agabi said the 
formation of the caretaker committees violated the 
constitutional guarantee of democratically elected 
local government. 
 
 
8. (C) While making a big public splash, Agabi's 
statement carried no legal weight. Calling caretaker 
committees illegal does not make them so. A court must 
do that and Agabi has declined to go to court on the 
matter. However, his pronouncement should encourage 
others to contest the workout. The current elected 
local councilmen are prime candidates to grab this 
cudgel. 
 
 
9. (C) Apparently, some current local government 
officials were spurred by Agabi's statement. The May 
16 Vanguard reported that, in a suit filed by a local 
government official, a Federal Court in Benue State 
enjoined the State Assembly from establishing the 
post-May 29 steering committees in that state. Similar 
lawsuits now may surface in other states. If so, 
Nigeria could be faced with a hodge-podge of some 
states establishing the committees with other states 
having vacant local government councils. Faced with 
this prospect and the potential confusion that would 
ensue, the constitutionality of the deal postponing 
local government elections might be on its way to the 
Supreme Court. 
 
 
10. (C) Meanwhile, some politicians are shaking their 
heads at Agabi's legalism. AD National Chairman 
Abdulkadir admitted to PolCouns the proposed steering 
committees were unconstitutional, but a lesser evil. 
The other alternative would have been hasty elections 
that disenfranchised millions of voters and several 
political parties. Confronted with either the brief, 
three-month violation of the guarantee of democratic 
local government or the irreparable abrogation of the 
right to vote and participate if the elections took 
place in May, Abdulkadir had hoped the courts would 
purposely delay ruling on any suit filed against the 
deal until after the August election, thus rendering 
the suit moot. In Benue, this hope has already been 
dashed. 
 
 
------------ 
BACK AT YOU! 
------------ 
 
 
11. (C) After months of House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba 
sniping at the President and orchestrating special 
sessions criticizing Obasanjo's performance, the 
President's men in the House have responded in kind. 
Obasanjo supporters in the House moved to impeach 
Na'Abba for alleged corruption. A reporter who covers 
the House described the session as tumultuous. After 
the motion was presented, Na'Abba tried to address the 
House but was shouted down by opponents. When the 
frustrated Speaker attempted to leave the floor, 
opponents rushed the door physically barring his exit. 
There was plenty of commotion and some fists were 
thrown as opponents and allies pushed toward the exit 
in what the reporter called very puerile behavior by 
both sides. 
 
 
12. (C) Attacking the veracity of the allegations 
against Na'Abba, his allies in the House charged that 
the Presidency bribed House members to present the 
impeachment motion. The Speaker's followers claimed 
House Members were promised several million Naira each 
and assured of reelection next year if they backed the 
impeachment motion. (Comment: Na'Abba has attempted to 
parlay his open attacks on the President into making 
him the rallying point for Obasanjo's detractors 
within the PDP. Na'Abba hoped public feuding with 
Obasanjo would buoy his long-shot presidential 
aspirations. Na'Abba had to realize that, as the 
President's most visible critic among PDP elected 
officials, he would become a political lighting rod 
after the President declared his intention to reclaim 
the PDP nomination. The President's strategists seek 
to preclude serious challenge inside the PDP. Thus, 
they want to silence Na'Abba. Recently, Governor 
Dariye of Plateau State (PDP) told PolOffs that 
Na'Abba had committed political treason against the 
party and that moves were afoot to make sure he was 
not re-elected to the House. 
JETER