US embassy cable - 05LAGOS472

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000472 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR 
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, KJUS, NI, PGOV, PINS, PREL 
SUBJECT: EXPELLED GOVERNOR BOASTS: I AM THE BEAUTIFUL 
BRIDE, WELL ADMIRED BY OTHER POLITICAL PARTIES 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for Reasons 1.4 (D & E) 
 
1. (C) Summary.  Anambra State Governor Chris Ngige met with 
us days after being expelled from the ruling People's 
Democratic Party (PDP). Ngige predicted that a growing army 
of supporters as well as some disgruntled politicians would 
move with him to the party of his choice, thus wresting 
Anambra state from PDP control.  He said other southern 
governors were ready to leave the PDP but would likely remain 
until the party's convention in November.  Ngige strongly 
intimated he would join the All Progressive Grand Alliance 
(APGA) party.  There has been ample press pointing to such a 
decision but no formal announcement as of yet.  His opponents 
have continuously underestimated the resilience, guile and 
the determination of Ngige.  He has used his opponents' low 
opinion of him to his advantage.  Currently he is letting 
himself be courted by all the opposition parties, yet has 
committed to none.  He will likely hold out until the last 
minute.  However his machination may not save his tenure - it 
is an open secret that Obasanjo wants him gone.  End Summary. 
 
 
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Expulsion from PDP Was Not A Surprise 
------------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) Trying to put a good face on a grave situation, the 
governor said he expected the PDP expulsion.  Although Ngige 
has been expelled, he remains the Governor of Anambra State. 
Some of his opponents within the party had incorrectly 
thought his expulsion would require forfeiture of office. 
APGA Special Advisor on Foreign Policy Onwuka Ukwa told us 
that a PDP insider had informed him of plans hatched by some 
PDP officials to have Ngige forcibly removed from the 
Governor's mansion and institute judicial proceedings to 
formally oust him from office.  Apparently, the Minister of 
Justice questioned this scenario by explaining there was no 
constitutional or legal basis for Ngige's ejection. 
 
3. (C) Ngige claimed the PDP leaders were threatened by his 
growing popularity in Anambra.  If they did not stop him now, 
it would be difficult to stop his re-election in 2007.  Ngige 
further claimed the party's simultaneous expulsion of Anambra 
troublemaker Chris Uba "was a smokescreen - The real target 
is me."  While this expulsion appears to be a good strategic 
move, it will soon backfire with an exodus of PDP members in 
Anambra to other parties.  He boasted, "The people are the 
source of power, and they are all with me.  When I move, it 
will be with 75% of the state - Anambra will be a one party 
state".  (Comment: There is a kernel of truth to what Ngige 
says about his popularity.  Several Nigerians, including a 
few with no admiration for Ngige, have observed that he is 
performing relatively well - paying salaries on time and 
initiating road and other infrastructure improvements that 
Anambra did not see under former Governor Mbadinuju.  Ngige 
does apparently have some genuine popularity in the state. 
End Comment.) 
 
4. (C) Searching for a new political home, by acting like he 
is not searching for a new home, Ngige is being courted by a 
faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), the 
All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP), and the Alliance for 
Democracy (AD).  Responding to our question, Ngige intimated 
he would join APGA, the predominantly Igbo party.  Later 
actions demonstrate this.  Over the March 18-20 weekend, 
Ngige feted embattled APGA Chair Chekwas Okorie in Anambra. 
Ngige would love to join APGA because it would possibly kill 
two birds with one stone.  It would make him the most senior 
elected official in the most popular party of the Southeast. 
This would make him the Igbo equivalent to Lagos Governor 
Tinubu and the AD party in the Southwest.  Ngige would likely 
steal a few pages from the Tinubu playbook by not only 
exerting strong influence within the party but in also using 
political patronage to gain influence in Ibgo social and 
political organizations such as Ohaneze Ndigbo.  Also by 
joining APGA, he would hope to derail the electoral case 
APGA's 2003 candidate Peter Obi has against him.  However, 
APGA is fractured and Ngige does not know if Okorie will 
retain the chairmanship.  Thus, the careful Ngige will not 
publicly commit to APGA until sure that Okorie remains 
chairman and can rein in Peter Obi. 
--------------------- 
Disintegration of PDP 
--------------------- 
 
5. (C) Ngige forecast the demise of the PDP party because 
President Obasanjo is pushing his opponents to the wall.  The 
November PDP national convention will result in mass exodus 
of prominent party members sidelined and alienated by 
Obasanjo, Ngige predicted.  Thus, opposition parties will 
become stronger and capable of posing a major challenge to 
PDP ,s dominance in national politics.  Ngige said the 
disintegration of the PDP is "as clear as daylight." 
 
6. (C) After Ngige makes his move, he believes other 
governors may leave the PDP and join him in the party he has 
chosen.  While most governors at odds with Obasanjo are in 
their second term and superficially should not be too 
concerned about 2007, they all have two big concerns, and 
they do not have much to lose by jumping ship, he opined. 
The governors want to cover their flanks by installing 
favorable candidates so they can live comfortably as 
ex-governors in their states.  Also, he stated they fear 
being probed by an adverse state or federal government. 
However, all things being equal, 4/6 South-South and 4/5 
South-East governors wanted to leave the PDP but are waiting 
for the convention to see what VP Atiku does there. 
 
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Ending the Commercialization of Politics 
---------------------------------------- 
 
7. (C) Governor Ngige congratulated himself about 
improvements in Anambra - the roads, new civil service, and 
that "after these four years in office, it will be difficult 
for anyone to commercialize politics."  Ngige said he has put 
a rewards system in place that discourages people within his 
government to resort to corrupt practices.  Ngige attributed 
his difficulties in Anambra State to his refusal to dance to 
the tune of people he termed "commercialized political 
investors".  The posts of Commissioner, Special Advisor, and 
Board of Directors have price tags between 10 and 12 million 
naira (approximately USD 85,000).  In this "transactional 
relationship", those who did not secure these funds look to 
borrow from "a godfather" and share the rewards of office 
with him subsequently.  Ngige vowed to end this practice. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) Ngige ironically portrays his leadership of Anambra 
state as the model for democratic development, considering 
his governorship was made possible through the same 
"transactional relationship" he now condemns.  Ngige's 
description of political commercialization is well-informed. 
Ngige does enjoy support in his home state, fueled by 
infrastructure improvements and more efficient government. 
His efforts in this regard are not entirely altruistic  The 
day his PDP expulsion was announced, Ngige awarded a N1.1 
billion contract (approximately USD 8.5 million) to repair 
roads in Onitsha, the state capital, in the attempt to shore 
up support at the grassroots level. 
 
9. (C) While the PDP expulsion does not impact Ngige's 
tenure, it places him in political limbo.  In Anambra, this 
has its pros and cons.  He is now an unrestricted free agent 
who can go party shopping.  Every opposition party that wants 
to land another governor will love and offer support up to 
the time he makes his decision public.  Thus, it is in his 
best interest to be coy as long as possible.  At the end of 
the day, joining APGA will serve his interest best provided 
he can use the resources of his office to prop up APGA 
Chairman Okorie and mute 2003 APGA candidate Obi.  No matter 
what or how well he does in Anambra, Ngige will always be on 
the hot seat.  Saddled with a pro-Atiku reputation and never 
able to weaken the nexus between President Obasanjo and the 
Uba clan, the President and PDP want Ngige out of Anambra. 
If the PDP can have a meeting of the minds with APGA 
candidate Obi, Ngige might discover that an adverse decision 
by the electoral tribunal - which is susceptible to influence 
- is in the offing. 
 
10. (C) Some have asserted that the expulsion demonstrates 
Ngige ,s ineptitude as a politician, as he could have easily 
negotiated himself out of this mess.  The expulsion will 
undoubtedly affect the case that APGA has against him in the 
election tribunal, even moreso if APGA candidate Peter Obi 
links up with PDP.  Without the PDP, some believe Ngige will 
be forced out of office quickly.  Others believe, including 
Senator Ben Obi, that if Ngige can hang on he will enjoy wide 
support in the upcoming local elections, and will bring, as 
Ngige predicted, all of his supporters to his new party. 
BROWNE