US embassy cable - 05MANAMA471

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAMA 000471 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, PGOV, BA 
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION GROUP DEFIES GOB ORDERS, HOLDS PEACEFUL 
DEMONSTRATION 
 
REF: MANAMA 416 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
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Summary 
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1.  (C)  On March 25, leading Shi'a opposition political 
society Al Wifaq defied the Ministry of Interior's decision 
to refuse to permit a demonstration and led several thousand 
people in a rally calling for constitutional reforms.  In a 
speech at the event, Al Wifaq President Sheikh Ali Salman 
stressed the importance of national unity and reconciliation. 
 There were no reports of confrontations between the light 
security presence and protesters.  Following the 
demonstration, the GOB warned that it may take action against 
Al Wifaq, and many are predicting that the society could be 
shut down for 45 days.  The arguments of the supporters and 
defenders of Al Wifaq highlight the perceived trade-off 
between freedom of expression and security and stability. 
End Summary. 
 
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Protesters defy GOB, demonstrate peacefully 
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2.  (SBU) On March 25, thousands of people demonstrated 
peacefully in the streets of the island of Sitra, immediately 
south of Manama, in response to leading Shi'a opposition 
group Al Wifaq's call for constitutional reform. 
Pro-government newspapers estimated there were 5-7,000 
participants in the event, while Al Wifaq members claimed 
there were anywhere from 30-100,000 people in attendance. 
Most reasonable guesses cite some 20-30,000 people. 
Participants commented that the presence of the security 
forces was light and they did not try to prevent the 
demonstration from taking place.  There were no reports of 
any clashes or confrontations. 
 
3.  (SBU) The demonstration occurred following last-minute 
jockeying between the Ministry of Interior and Al Wifaq.  The 
Ministry of Interior March 24 turned down Al Wifaq's request 
to hold the rally, saying that the application had not been 
signed by the minimum number of Sitra residents.  Soon 
afterwards, the Minister of Islamic Affairs and Al Wifaq 
leaders met in an attempt to find a compromise.  Despite a 
press report to the contrary, the parties did not find middle 
ground, and the GOB stood by its refusal to approve the 
application, citing, in addition to the insufficient number 
of Sitra residents' signatures on the application, security 
threats in the region as its reasons for blocking the event. 
 
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Red and white the colors of the day 
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4.  (SBU) In his speech at the event and in similar 
statements in the days leading up to it, Al Wifaq President 
Sheikh Ali Salman stressed the importance of national unity 
and reconciliation.  Prior to the protest, in response to the 
government's public statements of alarm about the Ashura 
celebrations in mid-February, Salman urged participants to 
refrain from carrying any foreign flags, photos or slogans. 
(Note:  The GOB reacted strongly to the many photos of 
Khomeini, Khamenei, and Nasrallah, and the occasional 
Hizballah flag, carried or displayed by Ashura celebrants 
(reftel and previous).  End Note.)  Taking a page out of the 
book of Lebanese opposition protesters, the dominant colors 
of the march were the red and white of the Bahraini flag. 
Salman said at the rally that Al Wifaq had chosen Sitra as 
the site of the event because it was where King Hamad had 
announced his reconciliation and reform program and invited 
Bahraini exiles to return to the country in the late 1990's. 
 
5.  (SBU) Following the rally, the Minister of Interior 
announced that the GOB would evaluate whether Al Wifaq's 
moves violated the 1989 Societies Law.  The Minister of 
Social Affairs, who is responsible for the registration of 
societies, said she was waiting for the Interior report 
before deciding whether to take administrative action against 
Al Wifaq.  The GOB could refer the case to the public 
prosecutor for legal action.  The Cabinet issued a statement 
March 27 rejecting the "misuse of freedom of expression" 
through illegal rallies and sit-ins, and stated that abuses 
would be punished.  The statement stressed the need to comply 
with the constitution, laws, and regulations.  Rumors are 
circulating in the press that the government is considering 
how to respond to the demonstration, and is contemplating 
three options:  (a) closing Al Wifaq for 45 days; (b) 
mandating the replacement of the board of directors; or (c) 
permanently dissolving the organization.  A 45-day closure 
appears most likely. 
 
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Participants declare focus on national unity 
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6.  (C) Al Wifaq board member Nizar Al Qari told EmbOff that 
his society made every effort to ensure the protest was 
peaceful and to show that the constitution is a national 
political issue and not a sectarian one.  Protesters waved 
Bahraini flags throughout the event.  Al Qari said he heard 
demonstrators urging one another not to retaliate if the 
security forces tried to disperse the crowd.  Aziz Abul, an 
opposition leader advocating constitutional reform, stressed 
to EmbOff that although Al Wifaq disagreed with the GOB's 
decision not to approve the rally, it tried to respect the 
government and there was no attempt to embarrass or offend 
GOB officials or political groups.  He noted that the event 
took place a week before the April 1-3 Formula One races and 
was held in a location far from high traffic areas and places 
where international visitors would congregate.  Abul 
commented that the demonstration was important to national 
security as it gave people a peaceful way to voice their 
frustrations. 
 
7.  (SBU) In his Friday prayer sermon just hours before the 
demonstration on March 25, prominent Shi'a cleric Sheikh Issa 
Qassem reiterated the right of the people to protest and 
hoped there would be an open dialogue between the GOB and the 
opposition.  He stressed the importance of national unity and 
urged people to remember that Bahrainis share one religion, 
one country they love, and one future.  Shi'a Sheikh Hussain 
Najati said in his Friday sermon that it would be very 
difficult to ask people to stop holding demonstrations if the 
government continued to refuse to deal with the opposition's 
political concerns. 
 
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Claims that demonstration threatens security 
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8.  (SBU) On March 25, six societies (four Sunni and two 
mixed Sunni/Shi'a) ran a full page advertisement in all 
Bahraini daily papers calling for a cancellation of the rally 
and warning that it could lead to a political and economic 
crisis.  One group applied to hold a counter demonstration in 
the Sunni stronghold of Muharraq, but the Minister of 
Interior refused to issue a permit. 
 
9.  (SBU) Numerous Sunni clerics spoke out against the 
demonstration.  Salafi MP Sheikh Ali Mattar announced in his 
sermon that rallies are contrary to Shari'a law as they 
threaten public safety.  Sheikh Juma Tawfeeq said there was 
great danger in using freedom of expression to reinforce the 
interests of one sect.  Sheikh Ebrahim Busandal acknowledged 
that protesting is a right protected by the constitution, but 
recommended that Bahrain's political societies take issues to 
parliament and not to the street. 
 
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Media reaction 
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10.  (SBU) Columnists' reactions to the demonstration were 
mixed.  In Akhbar Al Khaleej, Sameera Rajab accused Al Wifaq 
of sectarianism and doubted that participants who held 
Bahraini flags were genuinely loyal to the country.  Radhi Al 
Sammak wrote that in choosing Sitra as the event location, Al 
Wifaq sent the wrong message to the GOB as it was the site of 
some of the fiercest clashes between Shi'a and security 
forces in the 1990s.  Sawsan Al Shaer praised Al Wifaq for 
organizing a disciplined rally in a non-commercial area and 
for encouraging participants to hold Bahraini flags and 
support national unity.  She commented that the rally was a 
constitutional right and should not have been banned, but 
lauded the security forces for their self-restraint in 
dealing with the protesters. 
 
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Comment 
 
11.  (C) The demonstration, and the government's reaction to 
it, highlight a contrast in perspectives that we expect to 
hear more about as this and other democratization issues 
develop -- the perceived trade-off between freedom of 
expression and security and stability.  Government officials 
and their defenders correctly point out that democracy is 
relatively new to Bahrain -- the first elections in thirty 
years were held less than three years ago -- and that Bahrain 
is undergoing a normal process of maturation.  Oppositionists 
complain that the King took many important steps to open up 
society and take into account Bahrain's Shi'a citizens, but 
say that this process stalled after the 2002 elections. 
Addressing the opposition's concerns through legal or 
administrative means will not solve what is at its core a 
political problem.  Neither side has put itself into a corner 
yet on the issue of constitutional reform, and there is still 
an opportunity to find common ground.  But thus far, neither 
side has demonstrated the leadership or initiative to move to 
resolve the issue in a mutually satisfactory way. 
MONROE