US embassy cable - 05HARARE468

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000468 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR B. NEULING 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR C. COURVILLE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2010 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PHUM, ZI, March 05 Elections, Other Political Parties, ZANU-PF 
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT CANDIDATE MOYO ON ELECTIONS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher W. Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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1. (C) Controversial independent MP candidate Jonathan Moyo 
on March 22 told a visiting U.S. Congressional staff 
delegation and an Embassy election observer that ZANU-PF was 
a &spent force.8  He described ZANU-PF as a party of 
tribalists with no direction.  Moyo also expressed little 
regard for the MDC leadership but predicted the opposition 
would do well in the election.  Following the elections, he 
foresaw the possible emergence of a third party that could 
take power by uniting independents like himself with elements 
from the two parties. 
 
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Moyo Predicts Electoral Surprise 
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2. (C) Independent candidate for the Tsholotsho parliamentary 
seat and former Information Minister Jonathan Moyo met at his 
campaign office with visiting Staffdel from the House 
International Relations Committee, Pearl-Alice Marsh and 
Malik Chaka, and USAID staff accredited to observe the 
election.  While initially pleading time constraints due to 
the campaign, Moyo was clearly anxious to speak with the USG 
delegation and seemed eager to engage. 
 
3. (C) Moyo stated that he thought ZANU-PF was a spent force 
and would be surprised by the election.  He thought the MDC 
would do particularly well in the provinces of Masvingo, 
Mashonaland West, and Manicaland ) all rural areas and 
traditional ZANU-PF strongholds.  According to Moyo, the 
ZANU-PF leadership might have been lulled into complacency 
due to the lack of reporting of MDC activities in the press 
and had mistakenly concluded that the MDC had been crushed. 
He added that ZANU-PF had also badly weakened itself as a 
result of the Party Congress in December 2004, which would 
further contribute to an electoral surprise and he dismissed 
their anti-Blair campaign (which he had helped start) as 
ineffective, noting that many rural constituents had asked 
him just who was this &Auntie Blair.8 
 
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Assesses the Two Parties 
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4. (C) Moyo said that the lack of diversity in the ZANU-PF 
leadership had also hurt the party.  Without criticizing 
President Mugabe, he said the party had become &tribal,8 
with the Zezuru clan triumphant.  He concluded that the 
succession process in ZANU-PF was complete and that Joyce 
Mujuru would be the next leader.  However, the real power was 
with her husband, Soloman Mujuru.  Moyo decried this as 
&undemocratic bedroom politics8.  He added that he was sure 
Mugabe would not run for president in 2008 and, if he did, 
that he would lose. 
 
5. (C) Regarding the MDC, Moyo said the party's leadership 
was weak but he gave them credit for having the foresight to 
not expose their weakness by holding a party congress before 
the parliamentary election.  He said it would be difficult 
for the MDC to lead the nation because it was not perceived 
as &nationalist8 due to its heavy reliance on outside 
support, including support from the U.S.  Nevertheless, the 
MDC had a very good chance of winning a large number of 
seats. 
 
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Moyo,s Plans 
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6. (C) In Tsholotsho, he cast the contest as between the MDC 
candidate and himself, but predicted he would be victorious. 
He said he still maintained contacts with ZANU-PF but had 
also reached out to elements of the MDC.  He said if the MDC 
and independent candidates, including himself, won a combined 
total of more than 60 seats, it could result in a 
&constitutional crisis8 since ZANU-PF would have lost a 
majority of the seats being contested.  In that event, Moyo 
foresaw the emergence of a third force drawing MPs from both 
parties that could take power and unite the country. 
 
7. (C) Moyo said that if he lost his election, he would 
likely turn to writing and would try to remain in politics 
until the presidential elections in 2008.  He was coy about 
whether he would run himself for president.  Towards the end 
of the meeting, Moyo noted that he was "proud of his American 
education" and said he remained in contact with people at 
Stanford University where he had studied, and where he might 
like to one day teach. 
 
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Comment 
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8. (C) The ruling party has made a priority of defeating 
Moyo, who was counted out by many after his fall from grace. 
Nonetheless, he is now favored by most to win the Tsholotsho 
seat from a weak MDC incumbent.  Moyo's "Senator Pothole" 
constituent-centered campaign style, perhaps a side-effect of 
his time in the U.S., has had an impact and is being emulated 
by both candidates of both parties.  Moyo was clearly 
formerly the brains behind the ZANU-PF national campaign, 
which has floundered without him.  More than the other "young 
Turks" recently purged from ZANU-PF, this enormously 
ambitious and energetic figure may yet find a way to play an 
important - if unpredictable - role in Zimbabwean politics. 
Dell