US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1436

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001436 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/28/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: MARCH 26 RALLY CONCLUDES PEACEFULLY, ROCKY ROAD 
AHEAD 
 
REF: TAIPEI 01403 
 
Classified By: AIT Deputy Director David J. Keegan, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D 
) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The March 26 "Love Peace, Protect Taiwan" 
rally organized to protest the PRC's Anti-Secession Law (ASL) 
proceeded peacefully.  The Pan-Green claimed it mobilized 
almost one million people, but actual numbers are difficult 
to determine and subject to an ongoing partisan debate. 
President Chen Shui-bian marched with supporters and led a 
folk song, but did not make a speech.  His participation 
appears to have helped achieve the government's goal of 
preventing former President Lee Teng-hui from using the event 
to promote Taiwan independence themes.  Nevertheless Lee's 
March 27 call for a "major adjustment" in Taiwan's 
cross-Strait policy suggests that the DPP might have 
difficulty in keeping him quiet for long.  Opposition leaders 
were conspicuously absent from the march.   KMT officials 
instead announced that they would send KMT Vice Chairman 
Chiang Pin-kung to the PRC to showcase the party's ability to 
handle cross-Strait relation in a less antagonistic manner. 
The divided domestic political attitudes and the publication 
of a letter by a pro-Green business leader allegedly under 
pressure from Beijing (Septel) to protect  his business 
interests on the Mainland indicate that President Chen's 
expectations that the march would bring "closure" over the 
Anti-Secession Law may be premature.  End Summary. 
 
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Peace and Love Blowin' in the Wind 
---------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) President Chen and the DPP mobilized several hundred 
thousand people on March 26 in Taipei to protest the PRC's 
Anti-Secession Law passed by the National People's Congress 
on March 14.  The nominal organizer, the Taiwan Democratic 
Alliance for Peace, a Pan-Green organization comprised of 34 
civil groups and over 500 societies, organized the day under 
the banner "Love Taiwan, peace, and democracy".   This was 
the first major Pan-Green rally since the February 28, 2004 
Hands Across Taiwan demonstration. 
 
3. (C) The rally was peaceful with a carnival-like atmosphere 
resounding with music and song.  The sentiments expressed by 
the crowd were very pro-Taiwan and pro-peace rather than 
explicitly anti-China, although there were several instances 
of PRC flag burning and a widely photographed image of people 
stomping on a sidewalk picture of Jiang Zemin.  Participants 
chanted "Love Taiwan, Love Peace" and "Yes, Taiwan! No, 
China!" and sung several songs, including "We Shall 
Overcome."  AIT observers noted that the overall mood and 
tone of the event was calm with no sense of impending threat. 
 People carried flags, signs and inflatable batons bearing 
messages of peace and democracy.  At the central rally site 
organizers erected a five-story-high white balloon 
representing peace and a large red sea urchin, its needles 
symbolizing the missiles the PRC has aimed at Taiwan.  No 
major clashes were reported. 
 
4. (C) The actual number of participants is the subject of 
ongoing partisan debate.  Media estimates of attendance 
numbers varied greatly.  The Taipei Times and Associated 
Press reported one million people took to Taipei's streets, 
while Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou cited police estimates 
of 275,000 participants. AIT observers reported that numbers 
were close to the turn-out for the March 13, 2004 rally which 
also was estimated in the hundreds of thousands of people. 
 
-------------------- 
President Chen Sings 
-------------------- 
 
5. (C) President Chen maintained a low profile, keeping to 
his promise of not making a formal speech.  Accompanied by 
his family and several members of the Presidential Office 
staff, he marched along one of the pre-planned routes for 
about twenty-five minutes.  The event peaked at 1715 Taipei 
time when he took to the stage and led the crowd in singing a 
Taiwanese folk song and chanting peace and democracy slogans. 
 The energy amongst the people clearly spiked as he took to 
the stage, but Chen resisted the temptation to address the 
assembled masses. 
 
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KMT Criticizes Rally, Calls for Dialogue 
---------------------------------------- 
 
6. (C) Pan-Blue leadership did not attend the rally, but 
officials did not bar individual members from attending.  AIT 
observers noted that no Pan-Blue figures were on the scene. 
The KMT leadership publicly criticized the rally as an 
unproductive means for dealing with cross-Strait relations 
and a waste of resources.  A more productive means for 
addressing the issue, according to the KMT, would be through 
dialogue with the PRC.  KMT Chairman Lien Chen told press 
that the party's first official delegation to visit the 
Mainland since 1949, led by KMT Vice Chairman Chiang 
Ping-kun, will aim to "step up efforts to resume dialogue and 
work together for mutual benefit." 
 
-------------------------- 
Comment: Rocky Road Ahead? 
-------------------------- 
 
7. (C) The ASL, along with pressure on Taiwan business 
interests (Septel), will make it difficult for President Chen 
to use the March 26 rally to bring "closure" over the ASL and 
resume progress on liberalizing cross-Strait contacts.  To 
further complicate matters, former President Lee Teng-hui, 
after being silent at the rally, on March 27 called for the 
government to follow upon the rally with concrete actions, 
including changing its "China policy" and dropping plans to 
negotiate direct cross-Strait travel links.  Expectations of 
possible renewed pressure from Beijing and a deeply divided 
political front at home suggest that President Chen and 
Taiwan will have to continue down what Chen described on 
March 24 as "the rugged path full of thistles and thorns" 
before the government is able to return cross-Strait 
relations to the path it was on before the ASL was enacted. 
PAAL