US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1404

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001404 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/RSP/TC 
DEPT PASS AIT/W 
/ 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, TW 
SUBJECT: WHERE HAVE ALL THE BUSES GONE? -- THE 326 PROTEST 
RALLY 
 
 
Classified By: ROBERT W. FORDEN, AIT KAOHSIUNG PRINCIPAL OFFICER. 
REASON:  1.4(B/D). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY.  Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) plans 
for a one-million-person rally on March 26 to protest China's 
Anti-Secession Law are running into logistical problems. 
While Southern Taiwan DPP offices and officials have found no 
shortage of supporters willing to participate, they fear a 
bus shortage will prevent them from mobilizing enough 
supporters to meet quotas assigned by central DPP organizers. 
 Separately, DPP officials have publicly admitted they are 
facing severe funding problems for the mobilization effort 
and have turned to television to plea for donations.  End 
summary. 
 
No Shortage of Those Who Want to Attend the March 26 Rally 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
2.  (C) DPP offices in Southern Taiwan have told AIT/K they 
are working hard to mobilize supporters to join the planned 
March 26 rally in Taipei to protest the PRC's Anti-Secession 
Law (ASL).  According to several DPP offices, DPP 
headquarters had provided each local office with a quota of 
supporters it is expected to mobilize to Taipei.  All the 
local DPP offices told AIT/K that they had no shortage of 
supporters who wished to participate in the rally. 
 
But a Lack of Buses to Get Supporters to Taipei 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
3.  (C) Local DPP offices have told AIT/K, however, that they 
are running into severe problems finding enough buses to 
charter.  Chao Wen-nan, Chairman of the Kaohsiung DPP told 
AIT/K it had been ordered by the DPP Central Office to fill 
276 buses of supporters, or more than 11,000 participants, 
for the March 26 rally.  As of March 23, however, his office 
had enough supporters committed to participate, but he had 
only been able to rent 252 buses, leaving them 24 buses 
short.  He added that in the past three days his office had 
only been able to add one more bus to the count, despite 
trying every possible source throughout Kaohsiung.  He noted 
that they could try outside the city, but cannot because DPP 
offices in all the surrounding counties were running into the 
same problem.  For example, Chao noted, the DPP office in 
neighboring Pingtung County also had met their quota for 
participants but were still 90 buses short and had no way to 
transport most of them to Taipei.  Although he had no 
evidence, Chao wondered whether Pan-Blue supporters were 
using influence with local bus companies to dissuade them 
from renting their buses to the DPP. 
 
4.  (C) AIT/K contacts in DPP offices in neighboring Pingtung 
and Tainan Counties as well as in Tainan and Chiayi Cities 
all expressed similar frustration about a lack of 
transportation for their supporters to attend the March 26 
rally.  Pingtung's DPP office said its quota was 140 busloads 
(5,600 participants), but would not provide details on its 
bus situation.  The DPP office in Chiayi City told AIT/K its 
quota was 84 busloads (3,360 participants) and it had 
successfully arranged for 70 buses, but was still 14 short. 
Local DPP officials told AIT/K they were exploring other 
possibilities for transport, such as the train, but there 
were no good alternatives.  The train, for example, would 
cost them at least three times the cost of putting the same 
number of participants on chartered buses. 
 
Empty Promises 
-------------- 
 
5.  (C) Local DPP officials are not concerned about funding 
for the mobilization effort, as they have been promised full 
subsidies by the DPP Central Office.  Both Kaohsiung and 
Pingtung County DPP officials told AIT/K that the 
mobilization effort would be fully funded by the DPP Central 
Office.  Pingtung DPP officials said they have been promised 
a subsidy of NTD 16,000 (USD 516) from the DPP Central Office 
for each busload of supporters they mobilize to Taipei.  This 
should easily cover the cost of renting a bus and might even 
help defray part of the cost of box meals.  (Note: This 
contradicts the report of LY Member Bi-khim Hsiao to AIT 
(Septel) that DPP LY Members are being required to fund the 
demonstrators they are directed to organize.  End Note.) 
 
6.  (C) DPP Central Office organizers, however, are publicly 
appealing for donations, citing a lack of funds for the 
mobilization.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang went on Formosa 
television network the evening of March 23 to appeal for 
donations, reporting that the mobilization effort would cost 
NTD 80 million (USD 2.58 million) and that it would need to 
rely solely on donations.  In an hour-long telethon-type 
program that featured running totals of donations called in 
by county on the side, Su expressed confidence that at least 
230,000 people would attend the rally, provided more funds 
could be raised.  The county-by-county donation totals 
detailed during the program, however, did not appear to 
reveal a strong response. 
Comment -- Easier Said than Done 
-------------------------------- 
 
7.  (C) While there appears to be no shortage of grassroots 
DPP supporters willing to join the rally in Taipei, there 
seems less enthusiasm from traditional DPP financial backers 
to "pony up" for the rally.  Rallies in political campaigns 
are often well-financed by those who support an individual 
candidate's election, with an expectation of return on the 
investment.  The March 26 rally is not associated with an 
election, but a "cause" and seems, therefore, to be finding 
less support from those who traditionally provide funding for 
DPP rallies. 
 
8.  (C) Between the logistical problems and the funding 
shortage, Southern Taiwan, the traditional support base of 
the Pan-Green, may not be able to provide as many 
participants to the March 26 rally as organizers had hoped. 
This may make it difficult to meet the one-million 
participant goal set out by President Chen, though DPP 
Chairman Su Tseng-chang and other senior DPP officials 
publicly continue to express confidence that they will 
achieve a quarter of a million participants. 
PAAL