US embassy cable - 05PARIS2041

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 002041 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, PGOV, AORC, KWBG, EG, FR 
SUBJECT: MUBARAK IN PARIS:  CHIRAC URGES KEEPING PRESSURE 
ON SYRIA 
 
 
Classified By:  Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  Receiving Egyptian President Mubarak in Paris 
24, President Jacques Chirac stressed the necessity of maintaining 
pressure on Syria until it withdraws its armed forces and 
intelligence services fully from Lebanon, before elections this spring. 
Mubarak, who had met Syrian President Bashar Al-Asad at the March 22-23 
Arab League Summit in Algiers, said Bashar had promised to complete the 
withdrawal; the Egyptian  president added that he believed Syria 
would submit a precise timetable for its withdrawal to the UN within a 
week.  An advisor to Chirac who was present told us that Mubarak made a 
pitch for Egypt's candidacy for a permanent seat on the UN 
Council, receiving a noncommittal French response.  On the Israeli- 
Palestinian conflict, Mubarak recalled his role in hosting the 
Abbas meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh and in bringing Palestinian 
groups together, but was circumspect about the possibility of Sharon 
taking the next step after Gaza withdrawal, given what Mubarak assessed 
to be Sharon's tenuous domestic political standing.  He commented that 
Jordan would have been better able to manage its proposal for Arab stat 
normalization with Israel if King Abdallah had attended the 
Algiers summit.  Mubarak deflected questions about Ayman Nour, the only 
declared opposition candidate for the September presidential 
elections in Egypt, by claiming that there was incontrovertible evidenc 
of Nour's involvement in fraud.  Mubarak reportedly evinced "a little 
exasperation" with U.S. efforts to persuade him to move more 
forthrightly on political reform.  He was pessimistic on Iraq, believin 
the security situation was still far from being under control.  End 
summary. 
 
Chirac's main message:  Syria must leave Lebanon 
 
2.  (C)  President Chirac met first with Mubarak one-on-one to 
discuss Syria/Lebanon, Elysee Advisor for the Middle East and North 
Africa Dominique Boche told us March 25.  Chirac's central message was 
to encourage Mubarak to keep the pressure on Syria for full military 
and intelligence services withdrawal from Lebanon as soon as possible, 
and certainly before the spring elections.  Chirac emphasized that the 
international community "could not stop half-way" in its efforts 
to compel Syria to comply with UN Security Council Resolution 1559.  To 
do so would only invite the Syrians to delay and re-establish themselve 
indefinitely in Lebanon.  Both in his response to Chirac, and in 
an interview he gave to the French daily Le Figaro, which appeared 
March 25, Mubarak said he believed Syria would complete its withdrawal 
soon. He recalled that he had met Bashar at the just-concluded Arab 
League Summit in Algiers and Bashar had promised him that he would 
complete the withdrawal.  Mubarak told Chirac (and Le Figaro) that he 
believed Syria would submit a precise timetable for the withdrawal to 
the UN within a week.  He said he had pressed Bashar hard in their 
meeting, warning him that he was isolated internationally and that he 
had to conform with 1559, according to Boche.  Bashar also promised not 
to interfere in Lebanon's election, Mubarak told Le Figaro. 
 
3.  (C)  Boche said that since he was not in the one-on-one 
meeting he did not know whether Chirac discussed with Mubarak the two 
recent bombings in Christian communities near Beirut.  The Egyptian 
president told Le Figaro, which did ask the question, that people shoul 
be cautious about assigning blame for these attacks to Syria.  He said 
that a few such incidents were not unusual, given the circumstances in 
Lebanon, and that he did not believe they would lead to renewed civil 
war.  Asked by the newspaper about the investigation into the 
assassination of former Prime Minister Hariri, Mubarak did not mention 
Syria, assigning no blame to Damascus for either omission or commission 
 Instead, he evoked the possibility of a shadowy "foreign hand" intent 
on "sowing discord or setting a trap for Syria.  Anything is possible," 
Mubarak asserted.  As with the bombings, Boche told us he did not know 
whether Chirac raised the investigation or the Fitzgerald report with 
Mubarak. 
 
Mubarak's pitch for a permanent UNSC seat for Egypt 
 
4.  (C)  During the luncheon, at which Boche was present, Mubarak 
made a concerted appeal for French support for Egypt's bid for a 
permanent UNSC seat.  Mubarak acknowledged that Egypt had gotten a late 
start in promoting its candidacy.  He argued that a continent as large 
and diverse as Africa could not be represented on the Security Council 
exclusively by two sub-Saharan, Anglophone states.  In a pitch which 
struck Boche as amusing, in as much as it was delivered in English, 
Mubarak told Chirac that Egypt would speak for North African and 
francophone interests, and thus contribute to a more complete reflectio 
of the continent's diversity. Mubarak suggested that Egypt be part of a 
rotation of holders of an African permanent seat, and made no reference 
to Egypt or any other African state having the veto.  Boche said Chirac 
responded noncommittally, suggesting to Mubarak that it was up to the 
candidate countries to promote their own candidacies.  Privately, Boche 
said, France is skeptical about the rotating seat concept. 
 
5.  (C)  Mubarak recalled his role in hosting the meeting between 
Israeli Prime Minister Sharon and Palestinian Authority President Abbas 
in Sharm el-Sheikh and in assembling rival Palestinian groups in 
Egypt for dialogue.  He deflected a question from Le Figaro as to 
whether he would invite Sharon to Cairo, saying he had invited him to 
Sharm, "and that's in Egypt, isn't it," Mubarak quipped.  When the 
journalist pressed, Mubarak said that "Sharon would be well advised to 
give something to (improve) Palestinian public opinion.  That would hel 
us to reinforce our cooperation."  Privately, Mubarak told Chirac that 
he was not confident that Sharon would proceed with withdrawal from the 
West Bank once the Gaza withdrawal was completed because of what Mubara 
assessed to be Sharon's tenuous domestic political standing.  He added 
that he thought the U.S. role in encouraging Israel to move forward wit 
the process was essential.  Boche said that Egyptian-Israeli cooperatio 
on patrolling their common border once Israeli forces began to pull out 
of Gaza was not discussed.  Mubarak was asked about this by Le Figaro, 
replying that Israel had not yet agreed to such discussions.  Mubarak 
told Chirac that Jordan would have been better placed to try to advance 
its proposal for Arab state normalization with Israel had King Abdallah 
attended the Arab League Summit.  Mubarak appeared irritated that so 
many of his fellow Arab heads of state, including several of the most 
moderate, had stayed away from Algiers, leaving him with the likes of 
Qaddhafi and Bashar, Boche said.  Mubarak told Le Figaro that the 
Jordanian proposal had come as a surprise to Arab Leaders and "appeared 
to be a retreat from the recommendations of the 2002 Beirut (Arab 
League) Summit, which we want to reactivate." 
 
Arab reform 
 
6.  (C)  Mubarak also appeared to take umbrage with what he 
implied was undue U.S. pressure for democratic reform in the Arab world 
and specifically in Egypt, according to Boche.  Chirac asked about the 
situation of Ayman Nour, the only declared opposition candidate 
for September's presidential election in Egypt, to which Mubarak 
replied that Nour had been arrested because there was solid evidence of 
his involvement in fraud.  Mubarak asserted that he had initiated 
reform in Egypt 20 years ago.  Egypt, he said, was a great nation and 
did not need advice from anyone on how to manage its internal affairs, 
Boche said. Asked about U.S. pressure for reform by Le Figaro, Mubarak 
avoided controversy, saying reports that he was coming under pressure 
from the U.S. were "not true."  He went on to tell the newspaper, with 
regard to the "Kefaya" protest, that "certain movements are piloted fro 
outside." Mubarak declined to state whether he would be a candidate for 
re-election and said there was "no truth" to reports that his son, 
Gamal, would be a candidate.  He told the newspaper that the continuing 
state of emergency, in place since 1981, was necessary to combat 
terrorism.  He also said he opposed term limits for the president 
because this would "hinder the free will of the people."  Nor could he 
accept any limitation of the powers of the president because this would 
mean that the prime minister "would be subject to pressures which he 
could not face up to," adding that "the president of the republic is th 
guarantee of stability." 
 
Iraq 
 
7.  (C)  Finally, on Iraq, Mubarak publicly welcomed the January 
elections as "clearly a good thing for Iraq" and encouraged Sunnis "to 
participate in the political process and the elaboration of a 
constitution." Privately, Mubarak told Chirac that he was not optimisti 
about Iraq's future because the security situation was far from being 
under control. 
 
Wolff