US embassy cable - 02AMMAN2447

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 002447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2012 
TAGS: PGOV, KPAL, ASEC, JO 
SUBJECT: AL-NAKHBA DAY PASSES QUIETLY IN JORDAN -- WAITING 
FOR A POLITICAL PROCESS? 
 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Doug Silliman for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D) 
 
1.  (C)  Traditionally a day of protests in Jordan, the May 
15 remembrance of al-Nakhba (the "Catastrophe" -- the 1948 
founding of Israel) passed quietly in Jordan this year.  The 
Professional Associations sponsored a pro-Palestinian rally 
in the Shmeisani neighborhood of Amman.  A large number of 
police watched over the peaceful rally, but did not 
interfere.  UNRWA sources indicate that Jordan's refugee 
camps were quiet, with the exception of the Baqaa camp north 
of Amman, where a "spontaneous demonstration" tried 
unsuccessfully to reach the main Amman-Irbid highway. 
 
2.  (C) In a May 15 meeting, GOJ Department of Palestinian 
Affairs Director General Abdulkarim Abulhaija had told 
refcoord he expected Nakhba day to pass quietly in Jordan. 
The GOJ was not aware of any large demonstrations planned in 
the camps.  In general, Abulhaija said, "this is a moment of 
calm in Jordan," as everyone is waiting, hopefully, for a 
political process to restart and take root.  Abulhaija, who 
had just completed several days of meetings with camp 
leadership throughout the Amman area, said refugees are even 
talking about the need to avoid violence -- particularly in 
the West Bank -- to ensure that a political dialogue can 
begin and be successful.  Noting that refugees just a few 
weeks ago had been highly critical of the U.S., Abulhaija 
said they are now talking about the "independence" of the 
U.S. Administration and its apparent willingness to "stand 
up" to pro-Israeli interests.  Abulhaija added that the U.S. 
now needed to deliver.  If political progress is not made in 
the next few weeks, or if Israel launches significant new 
military assaults, he believes the mood could rapidly turn in 
the camps and in the broader Arab street. 
 
3.  (C)  In contrast, however, UNRWA staff told RefFSN that a 
group of refugees in Baqaa camp said this week that they 
blamed the United States for Israel's occupation of the West 
Bank and Gaza and were upset to learn that a U.S. delegation 
had recently visited the camp. 
 
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COMMENT 
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4.  (C)  This year's Nakhba Day passed with barely a whimper, 
especially as compared to the clashes that took place last 
year on May 11 in the run-up to al-Nakhba.  In the wake of 
Israel's withdrawal from West Bank cities and with the daily 
dose of images of Palestinian suffering reduced, Jordanians 
seem to be waiting to see if U.S. and international 
statements about the need for a political process and 
creation of a Palestinian state will be acted on. 
Gnehm