US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1403

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001403 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: 3/26 RALLY AIMS TO CONTAIN ANTI-SECESSION LAW 
FALLOUT 
 
REF: TAIPEI 1229 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary: President Chen Shui-bian announced on March 
24 that he would participate, but not speak at, the March 26 
"Use Peace and Democracy to Protect Taiwan" rally in Taipei. 
Presidential aides say the rally is aimed at releasing public 
anger over the PRC's March 14 enactment of the Anti-Secession 
Law in a way that will not further exacerbate cross-Strait 
tensions.  The government appears to have successfully 
blocked attempts by Lee Teng-hui's Taiwan Solidarity Union 
(TSU) to recast the rally into a pro-independence event. 
Organizers express optimism that they will reach their goal 
of one million participants, but acknowledge the rally has 
presented immense financial and logistical challenges.  While 
the rally is expected to draw a large turnout, the crowd is 
likely to be almost exclusively Green.  Opposition leaders 
have criticized Chen's participation in the rally and 
declined invitations to attend themselves.  End Summary. 
 
Walking the Walk, but Not Talking the Talk 
------------------------------------------ 
 
2. (C) President Chen Shui-bian announced on March 24 that he 
would walk with his family in the March 26 "Use Peace and 
Democracy to Protect Taiwan" rally organized to protest the 
PRC's Anti-Secession Law.  Chen said he will "not speak, and 
not stand in the front of the line, but rather would walk 
with the people and join them in calling out to the other 
side (of the Taiwan Strait) that we 'want freedom and love 
peace.'"  The Taiwan media reported on March 25 that the Chen 
administration consulted with both the USG and PFP before 
making the announcement over Chen's participation.  Several 
reports speculated that Chen's decision not to speak was the 
result of USG pressure and a few legislators chimed in 
charging that Chen was kowtowing to the U.S.  Premier Frank 
Hsieh (Chang-ting) and other senior Chen administration 
officials will also attend, but not speak at, the event. 
Hsieh encouraged public servants to take part as well, but 
said this was not mandatory and no roll would be taken. 
 
3. (C) Presidential Office Deputy Secretary General Ma 
Yung-chen told AIT the decision to have Chen attend the rally 
was made to ensure that pro-independence leader and former 
President Lee Teng-hui did not steal the show.  "If the 
President is there, all the media attention will be on him," 
Ma remarked, "if he doesn't attend, Lee will dominate the 
public message."  National Security Council (NSC) Secretary 
General Chiou I-jen told the AIT Director on March 23 that 
the DPP had manipulated the arrangements to ensure that the 
TSU delegation is not at the front of the crowd and that Lee 
 
SIPDIS 
will not have an opportunity to speak at the main event.  TSU 
Legislative Yuan (LY) Caucus Whip Lai Shin-yuan acknowledged 
that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has effectively 
marginalized the TSU's role.  "Even though the organizing 
committee is supposed to be run by NGOs, it is the DPP that 
decides every major facet of the event," she asserted.  Lai 
complained that the TSU has not even been able to find enough 
buses to transport its supporters to Taipei, "because the DPP 
has rented almost every vehicle on the island." 
 
Fund It and They Will Come 
-------------------------- 
 
4. (C) DPP Deputy Secretary General Yen Wan-ching, one of the 
rally's main organizers, expressed confidence that the 
Saturday rally would achieve its goal of one million 
participants.  Yen noted that eight percent of respondents to 
a DPP internal poll said they would "definitely attend" the 
rally.  Based on past polling on rallies, Yen said, this 
response rate already indicates that participation will be 
well over the one million mark.  The major problem facing the 
organizers now, he continued, was not public interest but 
transportation and funding for the 200,000 people the DPP has 
pledged to bring to the event.  DPP Chairman Su Tseng-chang 
led a telethon on March 23 to help meet the party's NTD 80 
million (USD 2.58 million) funding shortfall, but officials 
say their coffers are still empty (Septel).  DPP Legislator 
Bi-khim Hsiao told AIT the party is forcing its LY Members to 
pay out of pocket to mobilize each member's quota of 40 
busloads (or 2,100 people) of participants. 
 
5. (C) The march itself will start in ten different locations 
around Taipei, each representing a different article of the 
Anti-Secession Law.  Marchers, who will be divided based on 
sponsoring organization, will converge in front of the 
Presidential Office building for the final closing ceremony. 
NSC Secretary General Chiou noted that President Chen would 
go on stage at the end of the march, but only to join a 
chorus in singing a traditional Taiwanese folk song.  Former 
President Lee is expected to speak to a group of farmers and 
TSU supporters at one of the ten starting points, but is not 
 
SIPDIS 
scheduled to join the President on stage for the event's 
closing. 
 
A Green Day 
----------- 
 
6. (C) While the DPP appears to have succeeded in keeping 
control of the message for the March 26 rally, it has been 
less successful in casting the event as a multi-partisan 
expression of Taiwan's rejection of the Anti-Secession Law. 
Leaders from both the KMT and PFP declined invitations to 
join the event, and many opposition figures have criticized 
the President for his decision to take part.  PFP Policy 
Chief Vincent Chang (Hsieh-yao) told AIT that he is 
personally sympathetic to the sentiments that will be 
expressed on March 26, but noted that if PFP Chairman James 
Soong attends the Saturday march after skipping the March 19 
KMT rally to protest the election-eve Presidential shooting 
(Reftel), he would be excoriated by his supporters.  Despite 
public criticism of Chen's participation in the March 26 
rally, Chang said that Soong "can understand" the President's 
decision to take part. 
 
7. (C) Chang expressed surprise, however, over the KMT's plan 
to proceed with a visit by party Vice Chairman P.K. Chiang to 
the PRC just two days after the rally.  "They are really 
leaving themselves open to being labeled as out of touch with 
Taiwan's public sentiment by acting as if the Anti-Secession 
Law didn't even happen," Chang added.  Mainland Affairs 
Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu told AIT that he tried 
unsuccessfully to persuade Chiang not to travel so soon after 
the Anti-Secession Law's passage in order to protect Chiang's 
own reputation as a defender of Taiwan interests.  However, 
KMT Organizational Affairs Director Liao Fung-te told AIT 
that the KMT does, in fact, firmly believe that the 
Anti-Secession Law is not related to the KMT or Taiwan, but 
rather targeted only at pro-independence activists within the 
DPP. 
 
Coming to Closure 
----------------- 
 
8. (C) Despite the partisan nature of the event, DPP 
government officials are optimistic that the March 26 rally 
will allow the government to bring political and media focus 
on the Anti-Secession Law to closure.  Tamkang University 
Professor (and former MAC Vice Chair) Alex Huang told AIT 
that the March 14 passage of the Anti-Secession Law marked 
the opening of a period and the March 26 rally its end. 
Huang expressed confidence that the government will be able 
to "get back to serious business" soon after the rally 
concludes.  NSC Senior Advisor for cross-Strait policy Chen 
Chung-hsin offered a similar assessment, but registered 
concern that strong PRC public criticism of the March 26 
rally could complicate efforts to move beyond the 
Anti-Secession Law.  Chen said that Taipei has urged Beijing 
through various indirect channels to remain silent and let 
the march serve as a means to release pressure created by the 
Anti-Secession Law's passage. 
 
Comment: Dominating the Message 
------------------------------- 
 
9. (C) Logistical challenges and opposition non-participation 
notwithstanding, it looks like the March 26 rally will meet 
the objectives the Chen administration had set for it.  The 
DPP appears to have effectively generated enough interest to 
ensure a large turnout.  It has also kept close control over 
the event's themes and managed to portray the march as a 
substitute for more problematic alternatives such as a 
referendum or countervailing legislation.  As things 
currently stand, the TSU's proposed "Anti-Invasion Law" bill 
shows little chance of making it onto the LY calendar and 
calls for a "defensive referendum" are gaining little 
traction.  Of course, a last minute decision by President 
Chen or former President Lee Teng-hui to give a highly 
emotional speech at the March 26 rally or a sharp public 
statement out of Beijing could yet keep the Anti-Secession 
Law on the front burner.  However, barring any major 
surprises, the March 26 rally should help relieve pressure 
from within the Pan-Green base for the government to 
fundamentally reorient cross-Strait policy in response to the 
PRC's recent legislative actions. 
PAAL