US embassy cable - 05PARIS1998

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 PARIS 001998 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/WE, EUR/ERA, EUR/PPD, DRL/IL AND INR/EUC 
DEPT OF LABOR FOR ILAB 
DEPT OF COMMERCE FOR ITA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015 
TAGS: ECON, ELAB, EU, FR, PGOV, PINR, SOCI 
SUBJECT: PARTY OFFICIAL IN CHARGE OF SOCIALIST PARTY 'YES' 
CAMPAIGN ACKNOWLEDGES ANTI-AMERICAN THEME IN CAMPAIGN WAS 
INCLUDED TO PLACATE 'HARD LEFT' ELEMENT IN SOCIALIST 
ELECTORATE 
 
REF: A. A) PARIS 1106 
     B. (B) PARIS 1014 
 
Classified By: Minister Counselor for Political Affairs Josiah Rosenbla 
tt for reason 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
1.  (C) At a meeting with PolOff on March 16, Francois 
Rebsamen, Mayor of Dijon and Socialist Party (PS) official in 
charge of the party's campaign to mobilize left-leaning 
voters to vote 'yes' in the upcoming referendum on the EU 
Constitution, acknowledged that the "Yes, for a strong Europe 
against the United States" theme (reftels) in the PS's 
campaign was included "in order not to lose" the hard-left, 
anti-American wing of the party.  Rebsamen said the about 5 
percent of left-leaning voters in France were "strongly 
anti-American" seeing the U.S. as a "militaristic power", and 
that about 25 percent of left-leaning voters were "culturally 
anti-American," resentful of (but resigned to) the ubiquitous 
American influences on nearly everything in French life. 
Rebsamen stressed that the "Thank-God-for-the-Americans 
reflex," -- the gratitude felt by the French for the U.S. 
role in WWII -- "was still very strong," and implied that 
Americans should not underestimate the power of that in a 
"historically conscious nation" like France.   Rebsamen, a 
key member of the party leadership that has coalesced around 
party First Secretary Francois Hollande, said that Hollande 
was steadily "gaining in stature" among party members, and 
that Hollande's successful spokesmanship in the upcoming 
referendum campaign would re-inforce his claim to lead the 
party in the presidential elections of 2007.  Rebsamen said 
that, despite the "completely unexpected" strong and angry 
current of popular sentiment against the proposed EU 
Constitution, left-of-center voters would "pull themselves 
together" before the moment of truth on May 29, and the 
proposed Constitution would pass.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
PROVENANCE OF ANTI-AMERICAN THEME IN PS YES CAMPAIGN 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
2.  (C) Francois Rebsamen is the PS official in charge of the 
design and coordination of the party's campaign to motivate 
center-left voters to vote 'yes' to the proposed EU 
Constitution in the referendum May 29.  His party position is 
National Secretary in Charge of Federations and Education. 
One of the themes of the PS campaign is "Yes, to a Europe 
that can stand up to the United States" ("Oui, a une Europe 
forte face aux Etats Unis") (reftel B).  As soon as it became 
public that such a singling out the U.S. would be appearing 
on posters, websites, etc. Ambassador and DCM objected to the 
Socialist Party leadership (reftel A) that encouraging French 
voters to support the proposed Constitution against the U.S. 
was damaging to trans-Atlantic relations.  PolOff re-iterated 
this message to Rebsamen on March 16.  Rebsamen, as have 
other party leaders in response to Embassy objections, 
claimed unconvincingly that this element in the campaign was 
not anti-American because informed decisions about Europe's 
future on the world stage require consideration of other 
powers on that stage, especially the U.S.  Promptly belying 
this assertion, Rebsamen acknowledged that the decision to 
include this theme in the campaign was intended "to show the 
anti-American faction in the party that we were with them. 
Otherwise we could lose them to the 'no' vote," Rebsamen 
explained.  In Rebsamen's view, consideration of the U.S. 
role in the world in the referendum debate about the future 
of Europe is substantively relevant and politically 
expedient. 
 
ESTIMATED STRENGTH OF CENTER-LEFT, ANTI-AMERICANISM 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
3.  (C) Rebsamen said the "between 5 and 7 percent of 
socialists are strongly anti-American, perceiving the U.S. as 
a threatening, primarily military "hyperpower" (in the phrase 
coined by Socialist, former Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine). 
 Rebsamen added that he estimated that "about 25 percent of 
socialists are culturally anti-American;" by which he meant 
those who resent the way influences of American origin are 
all-pervasive part-and-parcel of globalization, including in 
France.  Rebsamen said that he believed that these estimates 
applied both to Socialist Party members -- about 120,000 
persons -- and to the Socialist electorate at large -- about 
12 million persons.  (In the 2004 regional elections, of 
nearly 41 million registered voters, almost 30 percent voted 
for PS candidates). 
 
DAMPENING THE ANTI-AMERICAN RHETORIC 
------------------------------------ 
4.  (C) Rebsamen said that these voters were highly sensitive 
to the argument that Europe should be strong and united 
enough to be able to hold its own vis-a-vis the U.S.  He made 
no bones about admitting that the possibility of losing a 
significant portion of these voters to the 'no' camp prompted 
the party leadership to go ahead with this campaign theme. 
Rebsamen, as have Hollande and other party leaders, went on 
to underline that in public statements and in campaign 
rallies discussion of the U.S. would remain "on a high plane" 
-- focused on debating Europe's role in world with respect to 
other centers of power "such as the U.S. and China," and not 
descending to slanted, inflammatory polemics about current 
U.S. policies and leaders.  COMMENT: So far, in speeches and 
TV appearances that Embassy is aware of, PS leaders have been 
true to their word.  Their evocation of "the strong Europe 
able to stand up to the U.S." theme has been low key, 
presented as a long-term issue and deliberately given less 
prominence than other 'yes' campaign themes, such as standing 
with the other Socialist parties of Europe in supporting the 
proposed Constitution and voting for the "Charter of Social 
Rights" included in the proposed Constitution.  END COMMENT. 
 
RISING TIDE OF 'NO' -- "NOT WHAT WE EXPECTED" 
--------------------------------------------- 
5.  (C) Rebsamen said that the vociferous, rising tide of 
anti-Constitution sentiment was "not what we expected," 
particularly among socialists after the internal, party 
referendum last December, when Francois Hollande and the 
'yes' camp won the party's endorsement of the proposed 
Constitution by a handsome majority (58 percent).  Rebsamen 
added that the strength of 'no' sentiment had "surprised 
everybody" -- from President Chirac to the opposition party 
leaders who had demanded a referendum, assuming it would pass 
easily.  Two polls, released respectively on March 18 and 
March 21, showed that among those who had decided how they 
would vote, the percentage of possible 'no' voters had 
surpassed that of yes voters for the first time -- by 52 to 
48 percent in the most recent poll.  However, all the polls 
also show that the number of undecided voters also continues 
to remain high, at between 30 and 40 percent.  Rebsamen 
admitted that winning the referendum was going to be "much, 
much harder than expected," but that, in the end, he was 
quite certain that voters would "pull themselves together," 
separate the range of their complaints about France's 
economic stagnation and political class from the matter at 
issue in the referendum, and vote for France's leadership 
role in Europe by endorsing the proposed Constitution. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
6.  (C)  In the PS, the referendum and its results are seen 
as setting the stage for selection of the party's 
presidential candidate for 2007.  PS party rules require that 
the party candidate be selected by vote of the party members, 
who have a record of making independent choices (for example, 
prior to the presidential elections of 1995, party members 
rejected the candidate endorsed by the party leadership, 
Henri Emmanueli, and elected his self-appointed challenger, 
Lionel Jospin).  Rebsamen, though he had earlier been a 
supporter of party number two Laurent Fabius (an outspoken 
advocate of 'no'), has emerged as a key member of the group 
of party leaders close to party First Secretary Francois 
Hollande.  Not surprisingly, Rebsamen sees a successful 
referendum campaign, led by Hollande, as strengthening 
Hollande's claim to be the party's standard bearer in 2007. 
A solid 'yes' victory May 29, particularly if supported by a 
majority of center-left voters, would give Hollande that much 
more credibility among party faithful.  Any other result 
however, including a very close 'yes' victory, would leave 
the door wide open to Hollande's principal challengers for 
the endorsement of party members -- former Finance Minister 
Dominique Strauss-Kahn and former Prime Minister Laurent 
Fabius, as well as the "retired" non-candidate former Prime 
Minister Lionel Jospin.  Neither  Fabius nor Strauss-Kahn is 
popular among the party's rank-and-file.  Former Foreign 
Minister Vedrine, for example, is among those PS members who 
are convinced that, should Hollande's support among party 
members founder, only Jospin can garner a solid majority of 
party member votes.  Socialist party operatives report that 
in mid-April Jospin is scheduled to return to the public eye 
in a series of appearances calling on socialists to vote 
'yes.'  His re-appearance before the party faithful, despite 
his protestations that he does not seek a leadership 
position, will suggest to Socialist voters that the man polls 
consistently show as the toughest candidate for the 
center-right to beat could be drafted in extremis.  Should 
that happen, Jospin's detractors will accuse him of having 
carefully positioned himself to appear on the scene at just 
the right moment to unify a deeply divided party.  END 
COMMENT. 
Wolff