US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2270

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 NEW DELHI 002270 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PTER, IN, PK, Kashmir 
SUBJECT: A SMALL STEP, A GIANT LEAP: FULL SPEED AHEAD FOR 
KASHMIR BUS 
 
Classified By: Polcouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Preparations for what J&K Chief Minister 
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has called the "mother of all CBMs," 
the first bus to cross the LOC in 58 years on April 7, are on 
track, with the J&K government and GOI moving purposefully to 
ensure a successful launch.  Initial passengers will be 
primarily from divided families in Srinagar, but there is 
huge pent-up interest in areas close to the LOC, where the 
vast majority of such persons live.  Calls are growing for 
more frequent service and additional crossings.  The Mirwaiz 
Umar Farooq and other senior All-Parties Hurriyat Conference 
(APHC) leaders have described to us a wave of popular 
enthusiasm for the bus.  Nonetheless, hardline separatists, 
Hindu nationalist and Kashmiri Pandit groups, and assorted 
intellectuals continue to dismiss the bus as a diversion from 
the "core Kashmir issue" or flawed.  Authorities express 
confidence that security measures will be sufficient to 
ensure the safety of the bus, while Kashmiris expect Pakistan 
to order jihadi groups to leave it alone.  It will be 
difficult for either government to reverse this step, 
reflecting the degree to which popular sentiment is shaping 
the Indo-Pak peace process.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (U) As April 7 approaches, the Srinagar-Muzaffarabad bus 
is increasingly seizing Indian imaginations in J&K and 
beyond.  The national media are reporting daily, across the 
country, and in considerable detail about logistical and 
infrastructural improvements, the mechanics of the operation, 
and human interest stories, usually of elderly Kashmiris 
longing to see family members last seen many, many years ago. 
 Senior GOI attention is focused on the event, with the PM 
scheduled to travel to Srinagar to see it off, perhaps joined 
by Sonia Gandhi, who has reportedly rearranged her schedule 
for this occasion. 
 
3.  (C) Although Chief Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed has 
been careful about giving credit to New Delhi and Islamabad 
for their leadership in making it happen, he is treating the 
launch as the most important achievement in his tenure as 
Chief Minister.  As the politician in India most associated 
in the public eye with the bus proposal, he has used it to 
highlight its potential for breaking down barriers between 
India and Pakistan, calling the service a "bridge of 
friendship" and a major step in creating the atmosphere to 
deal with the Kashmir issue, while stressing that it is also 
not a solution.  In some speeches he has gone further, saying 
the "softening of the LOC will transform South Asia."  This 
echoes the PM's oft-repeated notion of "reducing the 
relevance of the LOC" in Indo-Pak relations. 
 
Modalities 
---------- 
 
4.  (U) The Indian media have carried extensive reports of 
military units from both countries working together to widen 
roads, clear mines, and repair bridges that have had no 
civilian traffic since Partition.  Towns along the road, 
known colloquially in J&K as the "Rawalpindi Road," are being 
given facelifts, and prefab facilities, including a tourist 
welcome and document checking station, a cafeteria and 
restrooms, are being erected at Adoosa, a hamlet located just 
before Kashmiri travellers cross the LOC.  The infrastructure 
is scheduled to be completed by March 31. 
 
5.  (U) Information varies regarding the number of buses that 
will travel, with some reports suggesting that two will carry 
19 passengers and four Intelligence Bureau (IB) officers each 
for a total of 30 persons, while other sources indicate that 
the buses will carry 30 passengers apiece, and that VVIPs and 
media may also accompany in separate buses.  J&K has 
purchased four new vehicles, each with video/TV systems and 
refrigerators to ensure that the three hour, 130km trip on 
the Indian side, or total 4-4.5 hour 170km total journey, 
will be in comfort.  A roundtrip ticket will cost Rs 1500 
(USD 35). 
Travellers 
---------- 
 
6.  (C) Journalists in Srinagar tell us that 150 travel 
permit forms were issued on March 4 and 500 on March 21, on a 
first come, first served basis.  Amidst widespread 
disappointment that the first tranche was so small, the 
number was increased, and long queues formed to meet demand, 
leading to protests, police lathi charges, and a nascent 
black market.  To facilitate access to residents outside 
Srinagar, forms were also issued in Kupwara, Jammu, Pulwama, 
and Baramulla, but residents there have complained the number 
were far too few.  Their format differs from visa 
applications, in that they do not ask for passport details, 
but require detailed information on places and persons to be 
visited.  Permits will reportedly be valid for one month, and 
visitors from Pakistan will be able to travel throughout J&K, 
but must register with the police as soon as they reach their 
destination.  They can only stay in locations declared in 
advance. 
 
7.  (C) Technically, all Indians are eligible to travel, but 
non-Kashmiris are not likely to be on the first buses, given 
the focus on re-uniting divided families.  On March 23, the 
United Jehad Council reportedly issued a warning that only 
Kashmiris, and not Indians, should travel.  Of the 62 
completed applications received by March 13 by the Indian 
authorities, 50 were from Srinagar residents, with the rest 
from Rajouri and Poonch districts.  On March 22, J&K and AJK 
authorities exchanged the first lists of some 40 Indian and 
46 Pakistani names for verification by as many as five 
central and state security and intelligence agencies. 
 
8.  (U) Information on the mechanics of the crossing at the 
LOC is sketchy, contradictory, and in flux, journalists who 
have visited the site recently tell us.  The bus will procede 
to the village of Adoosa, the last settlement about .5km from 
before the LOC where passengers will disembark and procede on 
foot across a series of three bridges (Lal Pool, Weak Bridge, 
and Wood Bridge, the last of which has been a relic of 
Indo-Pak animosity for decades) that are being repaired. 
Thereupon, they will board a bus on the Pakistani side and 
continue their journey. 
 
Security Not a Major Worry 
-------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) In view of press and other reports that jihadis may 
attack the buses, Indian security forces have been taking 
special precautions.  The bus will travel in something of a 
convoy, with lead and follow cars, after Road Opening Parties 
have traversed the road to clear it of IEDs.  There have also 
been reports that residents along the road have formed 
vigilance committees to reduce the likeihood of ambushes, 
including by using the "zimmewari system," by which civilians 
look out for suspicious items that could be explosives.  J&K 
police officials say that should credible reports surface of 
IED threats, a jammer car may travel in the convoy. 
 
10.  (C) In a March 22 conversation with PolCouns, outgoing 
MEA J/S (Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran) Arun K Singh 
downplayed concerns about security, commenting that the 
security forces have taken the necessary steps.  The Indian 
media have also carried reports quoting Pakistani officials 
who express "100 percent confidence that nothing will 
happen."  Kashmiri separatist Javed Mir agreed, telling 
D/Polcouns March 22 that as long as Pakistan had bought into 
the bus and supported it politically, it would ensure that it 
would not be attacked.  The overriding sentiment in J&K, 
journalists in Srinagar tell us, is that the Islamabad will 
instruct terrorist groups to behave, especially with 
President Musharraf expected in New Delhi in connection with 
the Delhi One Day International cricket match on April 17. 
 
Increase the Frequency! 
---------------------- 
 
11.  (C) Kashmniri politicians and civic groups have begun to 
notice that few people will actually travel on the bus 
because of its low capacity and fortnightly service, and are 
now focusing on increasing its frequency.  Mufti has already 
spoken of instituting weekly, and, later, daily service.  He 
has also begun to urge that the route be opened to cars and 
trade.  His daughter, PDP President Mehbooba Mufti, has been 
stressing trade opportunities for Kashmiri products in 
Pakistan, a traditional market for Kashmiri produce 
(particularly apples and saffron) as well as handicrafts 
until Partition. 
 
12.  (C) Not to be outdone, National Conference (NC) 
President Omar Abdullah has joined the bandwagon to advocate 
daily service, commenting that "we must not waste the 
goodwill that this bus has created."  Quoting his 
grandfather, the legendary Kashmiri leader Sheikh Abdullah 
who had advocated opening the road before his death in 1982, 
Omar used the bus issue on March 21 to differ publicly for 
the first time with his father, former NC leader and Chief 
Minister Farooq Abdullah (who has not been effusive about the 
development), leading to speculation in the media about 
"whether Farooq has become irrelevant."  The MEA's AK Singh 
confirmed that the GOI was open to increasing frequency, 
presumably after both sides gauged how the system was 
working, and subject to the overall tenor of the Indo-Pak 
relationship. 
 
Other Roads 
----------- 
 
13.  (C) Experts in ethnic and linguistic patterns in Indian 
and Pakistani Kashmir have reminded us that the vast majority 
of divided families live in regions close to the LOC, with 
considerable concentrations also residing in the Jammu region 
(especially Doda District) and elsewhere.  Demographer and 
human rights activist Balraj Puri estimated that 98 percent 
of extended Muslim families in the Jammu region are divided, 
as opposed to only two percent in the Valley.  Hurriyat 
Chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq confirmed to D/Polcouns on March 
23 that the distribution was much heavier closer to the LOC, 
but that the breakdown was probably closer to 80/20;  almost 
all his friends and acquaintences in Srinagar had relations 
of one kind or another across the LOC. 
 
14.  (C) Puri and others argue that the concentration of 
divided families near the LOC made the current arrangement 
for the bus unusually cumbersome and inconvenient, as they 
have to travel all the way to Srinagar to apply, and then to 
travel, which can amount to 900km for what would otherwise be 
a hop, skip and jump as the crow flies.  This also applies to 
tens of thousands of Hindu families in Jammu, who fled from 
what is now POK or Pakistan after Partition.  The first 
reports are now surfacing of elderly Hindus residing in the 
Jammu region who originate from what is now Pakistani Kashmir 
and wish to visit their ancestral areas, and who complain of 
being ignored in favor of Muslims.  On these grounds, Puri 
reported that pressure is building in the Jammu region to 
open the Jammu-Sialkot Road, which would enormously simplify 
contact between families there, he stated.  We understand 
that this road is in good condition and could be opened in a 
matter of days, if the governments decide to do so. 
 
15.  (C) A recent story in "The Week" reported that at least 
60,000 residents in the Uri and Baramulla districts have 
relatives across the LOC, as cross-LOC marriages have been 
common and there are myriad extended families.  Residents in 
these areas come from similar socio-cultural milieux and 
speak Pahari and Gojari dialects.  Corresponding patterns 
apply to ethnic and linguistic groups that straddle the LOC 
in Kargil and the Northern Areas, which increases calls for 
opening a Kargil-Skardu route, Puri stated.  Jammu-based 
Kashmir correspondent for the "Statesman" Kavita Suri told us 
after a recent visit to the LOC that among Kashmiris in many 
of these isolated rural areas knowledge about procedures to 
obtain permits is still very rudimentary, but she expected it 
to grow. 
 
Moderate Separatists OK with it 
------------------------------- 
 
16. (C) In meetings this week with D/Polcouns in Delhi, all 
major moderate All-Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) leaders 
expressed support for the bus, although they emphasized that 
it was not the answer to the Kashmir issue.  Moulvi Abbas 
Ansari termed it a "good step" and "a just beginning on the 
long road to peace."  The Mirwaiz, Prof AG Bhat, and Bilal 
Lone were unanimous that it was a good development, and said 
that their views were shared across the state, even by people 
with no extended family across the LOC.  Javed Mir from the 
JK Liberation Forum also welcomed it, and did not disagree 
with a colleague of his who wondered out loud whether visits 
by Pakistanis from across the LOC might cause them to think 
twice about "which country offers more."  JKLF leader Yasin 
Malik considered the family unification dimension positive, 
but expressed bitterness that New Delhi and Islamabad had 
chosed to freeze Kashmiris out of their dialogue. 
 
17.  (C) The moderate Hurriyat leaders have confirmed to us 
their interest in travelling on the bus, but said they would 
wait until the second or third trip in May or later, partly 
to allow divided families which have no other opportunity to 
travel to go first, but also to see how the process unfolds, 
as well as to allow arrangements for such trips to be made. 
"We are not interested in going to Pakistan for tourism," the 
Mirwaiz stated. 
 
Opponents Continue to Whine 
--------------------------- 
 
18.  (C) Not all reaction has been positive, with criticism 
continuing to come from assorted hardline separatists, Hindu 
nationalists, Kashmiri Pandit groups, and intellectuals. 
Hardline, pro-Pakistan separatist SAS Geelani has called the 
bus a "non-issue," "part of the Indian agenda," and "merely a 
toy to pacify Indian slaves."  In fact, Geelani has become so 
angry with Pakistan that he has begun to criticize President 
Musharraf, accusing him of "sprinkling salt on our wounds" 
and "giving a burial to our prolonged struggle for 
self-determination."  Geelani boycotted the high profile 
Pakistan National Day Reception in New Delhi on March 23 for 
the first time since 1989 in protest. 
 
19.  (C) The "Panun Kashmir" Pandit group has commented that 
the road will do nothing to improve their continued plight. 
The Hindu nationalist RSS has termed the bus "insane" and 
"fraught with serious consequences for the country's 
security," highlighting New Delhi's compromises over 
documentation and the potential for terrorist infiltration. 
Mufti has dismissed these concerns, observing tartly that 
terrorists have not traditionally crossed over to J&K 
legally. 
 
20.  (U) Even liberal commentators on Kashmir and 
well-wishers of Indo-Pak amity like the Mumbai-based writer 
AG Noorani have joined the criticism, although their focus is 
more on flaws in the procedure than opposing the bus itself. 
Calling the bus "sheer symbolism," Noorani has highlighted 
the logistical difficulties for the rural, poor Kashmiris who 
live in border areas or in the Jammu region when they apply 
for permits and seats on the bus.  Noorani has also attempted 
to diminish the significance of including Gilgit and 
Baltistan to the list of areas Kashmiris can visit, on the 
grounds that they will have to travel via Abbottabad in the 
NWFP.  He also complains that visitors to Mirpur will have to 
visit via the International Border, because the old 
Muzaffarabad-Mirpur road no longer exists. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
21.  (C) This is no ordinary road, and no ordinary bus; it is 
one of the biggest Kashmir stories in many, many years. 
Although it is important to filter out the media hype, the 
enthusiasm in J&K and elsewhere in India for this development 
is genuine, palpable, and has done much to keep interest in 
the fledgling Indo-Pak peace process alive, despite the 
absence of other major achievements in the Composite 
Dialogue.  The symbolic and political significance of the bus 
has reinforced the stakes India and Pakistan have in its 
success. 
 
22.  (C) Although it does not deal directly with the "core 
issue" of Kashmir, the bus has the potential to begin a new 
era in intra-Kashmir relations.  Those who continue to 
dismiss it as a diversion or otherwise flawed sound 
increasingly cranky and out of touch with the march of 
history.  The matter of more frequencies and more routes will 
depend on the larger Indo-Pak relationship, but there is no 
doubt about the popularity of such steps in the state.  One 
of the few things that could affect the bus negatively is 
terrorism, but even a spectacular attack would be 
self-defeating, given the potential for causing a backlash 
among Kashmiris.  With public views so positive, it will be 
difficult for either government to stop this bus. 
MULFORD