US embassy cable - 05ROME1012

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ROME 001012 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2015 
TAGS: PREL, SO, IT 
SUBJECT: SOMALIA - ITALY REQUESTS USG VIEWS ON SITUATION; 
IGAD AMENDED PEACE PLAN 
 
REF: A) STATE 47850 B) ROME 00950 
 
Classified By: Pol M/C Thomas Countryman for reasons 1.4 
(b) and (d). 
 
1.  (U)  This cable includes a request for guidance. See 
paragraph 6. 
 
2.  (C)  Summary. According to the MFA, U.S. and 
international concerns regarding frontline state 
participation in IGASOM (ref A) had been heeded by IGAD.  An 
unofficial draft report (paragraph 7) on the March 22 core 
group (Italy, UK, Sweden, EC) meeting outlines divisions 
among the Somalis and presents the core group,s suggestions 
on how to move the peace process forward.  End Summary. 
 
3.  (C)  MFA Somalia Desk Officer Stefano Dejak told PolOff 
March 23 that the amended IGAD plan specifies that initial 
troop deployment will be undertaken by Uganda and Sudan with 
remaining IGAD countries (frontline states (FLS)) providing 
logistics, equipment, emergency assistance and training. 
Dejak expressed Italian and core group satisfaction that 
concerns regarding frontline state troop deployment had been 
heeded by IGAD.  He also stated that, although there are 
divisions, the Somalis generally responded favorably. 
According to Dejak the amended plan will be approved by IGAD 
and the AU Peace and Security Council and will come to the 
UNSC for approval "sooner than expected." 
 
4.  (C)  Dejak remains concerned over disagreements within 
the Somali TFG, exemplified by President Yusuf's rejection of 
the Assembly's vote endorsing IGAD deployment without FLS 
troops. Italy hosted a core group meeting March 22 to discuss 
the situation and to develop a plan of action.  Dejak 
provided PolOff with an unofficial draft readout (text in 
paragraph 7) from the meeting. 
 
5.  (C)  Dejak expressed concern that if the peace process 
fails, fundamentalist groups will thrive and could work to 
transform Somali society much like the Taliban did in 
Afghanistan.  With the likely approval of the amended IGAD 
plan and the possible relocation of the TFG this summer, 
Dejak stated that "developments are coming to a head8 and 
that therefore the core group and the U.S. must make a 
concerted effort to move the peace process forward. 
 
6.  (C)  Dejak expressed great satisfaction with the recent 
USG public statement and demarche on Somalia, but added that 
Italy and the core group countries want to ensure that they 
and the U.S. are &on the same page strategically and 
tactically.8  He stated that &Italy and the core group want 
to work in an integrated manner with the U.S. Mission in 
Nairobi and are eager to know the USG,s frank analysis on 
recent developments.8  Specifically, Dejak requested 
feedback on the USG,s reaction to the amended IGAD plan and 
wanted to know if the USG would support approval of the plan 
at the Security Council. 
 
7.  (C)  Rough Draft of core group report on latest 
developments in Somalia.  Note internal numbering. 
 
Begin Text: 
 
"Following the decree issued by Yusuf late Sunday rejecting 
the parliamentary vote on FLS on legal grounds, and pressure 
on the Speaker to vacate his residence at the Regency Hotel 
in Nairobi (suspected political pressure from Kenya), the 
Speaker made it known that he and a 
considerable number of MPs (suspected to be around 100) would 
leave (their Hotels) to Mogadishu immediately according to 
the Charter (Moga Capital). Gedi moved during yesterday to 
counter this attempt by mobilising authority to him from the 
Council of Ministers to decide on where the TFIs should 
relocate inside Somalia. A stormy and divisive 
discussion apparently ensued in the cabinet meeting resulting 
into a walk-out by some 10 Hawiya (powerful) Ministers. The 
remaining members of the council (some 64 ministers, 
assistant ministers and ministers of state) voted unanimously 
in favour of establishing Baidoa and 
Jowhar as operational sites until the issue of the capital is 
adequately addressed. Gedi announced this in a press 
conference late in the afternoon. The Hawiya leaders also 
contested the continued lack of procedures in cabinet 
meetings (yesterday's was the first in two months; no written 
procedures have been developed or approved; and Council is 
attended unconstitutionally by assistant ministers and deputy 
ministers with equal voting rights). 
 
 
At the same time, Italy hosted an informal meeting in the 
morning of yesterday to discuss the fast deteriorating 
situation (present: IT, UK, SW, UN, EC later joined by US). 
The meeting agreed that immediate informal visits to the 
Speaker and Gedi should be rushed calling for restraint and 
cessation of reactionary statements with the view to 
de-escalate the situation and provide an environment for 
dialogue. 
 
The group made the same points to both leaders: 
 
That: 
 
Only a lose - lose situation will result from a division in 
the institutions with the IC not recognising either of the 
two sides; 
 
Inclusivity and reconciliation remain the two pillars for the 
peace process and its success and must be restored 
immediately as the institutions are transitional in nature 
and decisions must remain consensual derived on the basis of 
reconciliation and compromise; 
 
Both legal and political issues are the cause of the 
division, and that focus should be established on the 
political angle of the problem leaving aside the legal issues 
since all parties are guilty of respecting rules and 
resolution will not be to the satisfaction of all parties; 
 
The IGAD Council communiqu did provide new space and fresh 
grounds upon which new proposals could be built for the 
parliament to debate away from the divisive issue of FLS 
deployment; 
 
All efforts must go to restoring the image of the TFI after 
the unacceptable confrontation that ensued on 18th March. 
 
The Speaker accepted to consider an opportunity for 
reconciliation, but wanted to avoid, under every 
circumstance, a return to debate in Parliament on the FLS 
issue as this will again become a scene of division. Gedi had 
a difference story: he told via his Planning Minister (an 
influential cabinet Minister highly connected to the 
President) that the most powerful leaders among the 
Mogadishu-based Hawiya have become too arrogant, rejecting 
compromise on "operational sites" (Baidoa and Jowhar in 
addition to Mogadishu) even after the Council approved the 
inclusion of the Mogadishu Plan into the TFG relocation 
plans; willingness to appoint a special monitoring committee 
for Mogadishu; and allow adequate time for its implementation 
(90 to 120 days). The contention came over the need to move 
the TFIs to sites other than Mogadishu during this period 
Gedi informed. The PM said that it was 
clear that these Hawiya leaders were not going to accept any 
compromise allowing TFIs to operate in any location inside 
Somalia other than Mogadishu and for any reason, preferring 
Nairobi instead. The Hawiya kept on stating that Mogadishu is 
named as capital in the charter and only the parliament can 
make changes to this issue. Gedi wanted to 
rest that authority (for naming operational sites other 
than Moga) with him. 
 
The international informal group will today meet the Hawiya 
leaders who abandoned the session yesterday. 
 
Observations: 
 
Senator Raffaelli identified three issues require address 
after achieving a temporary stand-down agreement for 
dialogue: 
 
1.   Constructing a new proposal using the opportunity IGAD 
provided (phase one no FLS deployment). 
 
a.   The proposal will have to credit viable parts of the 
Mogadishu Plan into the national TFG relocation plans to 
avoid giving the impression that Mogadishu is a clan 
property/issue. 
 
b.   Phase One should be allowed adequate duration 
accommodating the implementation of reconciliation in 
sensitive parts of Somalia and progress in Mogadishu. 
 
c.   Commencing planning for ceasefire and disengagement on 
countrywide basis. 
 
2.   Identifying the approaches to be employed for dialogue 
 
 
among the divided parties on this new plan, with the view of 
taking it to parliament for fresh debate having secured 
agreement on a compromise vote. 
 
3.   Consolidating transparency and accountability in the 
procedures of conduction of dialogue and decision-making 
process in both Parliament and Council of Ministers 
interaction to the satisfaction of all parties."   End Text. 
 
 
8. (U) Khartoum Minimize Considered. 
 
SEMBLER 
 
 
NNNN 
 2005ROME01012 - Classification: CONFIDENTIAL