US embassy cable - 05PARIS1968

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PARIS 001968 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR INR/R/MR; IIP/RW; IIP/RNY; BBG/VOA; IIP/WEU; AF/PA; 
EUR/WE /P/SP; D/C (MCCOO); EUR/PA; INR/P; INR/EUC; PM; OSC ISA 
FOR ILN; NEA; WHITE HOUSE FOR NSC/WEUROPE; DOC FOR ITA/EUR/FR 
AND PASS USTR/PA; USINCEUR FOR PAO; NATO/PA; MOSCOW/PA; 
ROME/PA; BRUSSELS/PA; USVIENNA FOR USDEL OSCE. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, FR 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION REPORT - SYRIA-LEBANON 
ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
PARIS - THURSDAY, MARCH 24, 2005 
 
 
(A) SUBJECTS COVERED IN TODAY'S REPORT: 
 
SYRIA-LEBANON 
ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
 
B) SUMMARY OF COVERAGE: 
 
THE BOLKEINSTEIN DIRECTIVE AND PRESIDENT CHIRAC'S APPEAL TO 
THE PEOPLE OF FRANCE TO BACK THE EU CHARTER ARE TODAY'S MAJOR 
FRONT PAGE AND EDITORIAL STORIES. CATHOLIC LA CROIX DEVOTES 
ITS LEAD TO THE DECISION BY EUROPE'S BISHOPS TO BACK THE EU 
CONSTITUTION. LA CROIX ALSO CARRIES A DECLARATION BY MOHAMED 
BECHARI, SECRETARY OF EUROPE'S ISLAMIC CONFERENCE, CALLING FOR 
EUROPE'S MUSLIM POPULATION TO VOTE IN FAVOR OF THE 
CONSTITUTION. 
 
THE LATEST BOMBING IN BEIRUT LEADS COMMENTATORS TO WARN 
AGAINST A NEW CYCLE OF VIOLENCE AND RENEWED DISSENSION BETWEEN 
LEBANON'S RELIGIOUS FACTIONS. IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE 
POINT, COLUMNIST PIERRE BEYLAU ANALYZES FRANCE'S PAST STANCE 
TOWARDS LEBANON, AND ITS PRESENT "LIMITED" ALIGNMENT WITH 
WASHINGTON'S ATTITUDE TOWARDS HEZBOLLAH AND SYRIA. (SEE PART 
C) 
 
A REPORT IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR 
ANALYZES THE FEASIBILITY OF PRESIDENT BUSH'S "DEMOCRATIZATION 
OF THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST." (SEE PART C) 
 
LEFT-OF-CENTER LE MONDE CARRIES AN INTERVIEW WITH PAUL 
WOLFOWITZ ON HIS NOMINATION TO THE WORLD BANK. LEFT-OF-CENTER 
LIBERATION DEVOTES A TWO-PAGE PROFILE OF PAUL WOLFOWITZ, 
ANNOUNCED ON THE FRONT PAGE: "A HAWK AT THE WORLD BANK'S 
DOOR." PASCAL RICHE CONTENDS THAT "WOLFOWITZ, THE WARMONGER, 
WASHINGTON'S LEAD HAWK WHO IS ESSENTIALLY ONLY INTERESTED IN 
KEEPING AMERICA'S POWER ON TOP, DOES NOT HAVE THE PROFILE FOR 
THE JOB." IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT, WASHINGTON 
CORRESPONDENT HELENE VISSIERE COMMENTS IN A TWO-PAGE REPORT ON 
PAUL WOLFOWITZ: "LIKE RUMSFELD, WOLFOWITZ PROVED INCAPABLE OF 
ANTICIPATING THE POST-WAR INSURRECTION AND OF PLANNING FOR 
IRAQ'S RECONSTRUCTION. HOW WILL HE BE ABLE TO MANAGE AN 
INSTITUTION THAT DISTRIBUTES 20 BILLION DOLLARS IN CREDITS A 
YEAR, WHEN HE DID SUCH A POOR JOB OF ANTICIPATING THE 
FINANCIAL AND HUMAN COST OF THE WAR IN IRAQ?" 
 
A POLL CONDUCTED IN EUROPE ON EUROPE'S EXPANSION AND REPORTED 
IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO INDICATES THAT IN FRANCE, 58 
PERCENT OF THOSE POLLED FAVOR UKRAINE'S EU MEMBERSHIP, WHILE 
ONLY 37 PERCENT FAVOR TURKEY. 
 
(C) SUPPORTING TEXT/BLOCK QUOTES: 
 
SYRIA-LEBANON 
 
"DAMASCUS RETAINS ABILITY TO DO HARM" 
GEORGES MALBRUNOT IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER LE FIGARO (03/24): 
"FORCED TO LEAVE ITS PRIVATE HUNTING GROUND, SYRIA RETAINS THE 
ABILITY TO DO HARM. THE SYRIANS DO NOT NEED TO BE PHYSICALLY 
PRESENT IN LEBANON. THEY CAN COUNT ON THE PRO-SYRIAN LEBANESE 
WITHIN THE POLITICAL CLASS AND THE LEBANESE ARMY. FOR THE TIME 
BEING HEZBOLLAH HAS RESISTED THE PROPONENTS OF LEBANON'S 
DESTABILIZATION. BUT HOW LONG WILL IT BE ABLE TO OPPOSE ITS 
SYRIAN AND IRANIAN BACKERS? AFTER THIS SECOND ATTACK AGAINST 
THE CHRISTIAN OPPOSITION, CHANCES FOR REPRISAL EXIST, 
ESPECIALLY IF GENERAL AOUN RETURNS TO BEIRUT. SINCE HARIRI'S 
ASSASSINATION, LEBANON'S OLD DEMONS HAVE RETURNED. IN A 
COUNTRY WHERE RELIGIOUS IDENTIFICATION IS STRONGER THAN 
NATIONAL UNITY, THE FRENCH AND AMERICAN PROMOTERS OF 
RESOLUTION 1559 MAY HAVE PROVED TO BE INCAUTIOUS. AS ONE 
EXPERT PUT IT, `WE MAY BE PLAYING WITH FIRE HERE.'" 
 
"A BELATED `DISCOVERY.'" 
PIERRE BEYLAU IN RIGHT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE POINT (03/24): "ONE 
DAY, LO AND BEHOLD, CHIRAC DISCOVERED THAT THE SYRIAN ARMY WAS 
OCCUPYING LEBANON. UNTIL RECENTLY EVERYONE SEEMED TO ACCEPT 
LEBANON'S SYRIAN OCCUPATION, FOR FEAR OF A WAR. ONLY LAST YEAR 
DID FRANCE BEGIN TO OPEN ITS EYES. EAGER TO NORMALIZE 
RELATIONS WITH WASHINGTON, FRANCE BEGAN TO LEAD IN UN 
RESOLUTION 1559. LEBANON THUS BECAME THE PRIVILEGED GROUNDS 
FOR RECONCILIATION BETWEEN THE FRENCH AND THE AMERICANS. BUT 
ONLY TO A POINT. BECAUSE PARIS, CONTRARY TO WASHINGTON, 
BELIEVES IT IS DANGEROUS TO EXCLUDE HEZBOLLAH FROM LEBANON'S 
POLITICAL ARENA. AND MOST IMPORTANTLY, FRANCE HAS NO DESIRE TO 
GET INVOLVED IN SYRIA'S INTERNAL AFFAIRS. IN OTHER WORDS, IT 
DOES NOT WANT TO GET INVOLVED IN ENCOURAGING A CHANGE OF 
REGIME IN DAMASCUS. THESE ARE TWO YELLOW LINES WHICH DELINEATE 
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN FRANCE AND WASHINGTON'S POSITIONS ON 
THE LEBANESE QUESTION." 
 
"A WELL-PLANNED BOMBING" 
DOMINIQUE BROMBERGER ON GOVERNMENT-RUN FRANCE INTER RADIO 
(03/24): "THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE DECISIVE IN THE 
CONFRONTATION BETWEEN THE PRO-SYRIAN MOVEMENT AND THE LEBANESE 
OPPOSITION. THE SYRIANS WOULD BE DELIGHTED IF IT WERE PROVEN 
THAT WITHOUT THEIR PRESENCE TO IMPOSE LAW AND ORDER, THE 
LEBANESE ARE INCAPABLE OF LIVING IN PEACE. BESIDES THE COMING 
ELECTIONS, ANOTHER FACTOR THAT WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IS 
THE REPORT THAT KOFI ANNAN HAS REQUESTED ON THE ASSASSINATION 
OF HARIRI. DEPENDING ON WHETHER DAMASCUS IS FINGERED OR NOT, 
THE REPORT WILL PLAY AN INFLUENTIAL ROLE IN THE BALANCE OF 
POWER. LEBANON'S AFFAIRS ARE BEING FOLLOWED VERY CAREFULLY IN 
THE ARAB WORLD. A VICTORY OF DEMOCRACY HERE WOULD HAVE 
CONSIDERABLE IMPACT IN OTHER NATIONS IN THE REGION." 
 
ARAB SPRING - GREATER MIDDLE EAST 
 
"TOMORROW, DEMOCRACY?" 
RENE BACKMANN IN LEFT-OF-CENTER WEEKLY LE NOUVEL OBSERVATEUR 
(03/24): "THE AMERICAN INTERVENTION IN IRAQ HAS TURNED THAT 
COUNTRY INTO A NEW POWDER-KEG OF ISLAMIC TERRORISM, WHILE ALSO 
TRIGGERING A MOVEMENT FOR REFORMS AND DEMOCRATIC ASPIRATION 
FROM EGYPT TO SAUDI ARABIA AND LEBANON. BUT HOW FAR CAN THIS 
ARAB SPRING GO..? IS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION DOING WHAT IT 
NEEDS TO DO TO BE CREDIBLE IN ARAB COUNTRIES, WHERE THE 
POPULATION PERCEIVES WASHINGTON'S POLICIES AS IMPERIALISTIC? 
AMERICA'S DESIGNS FOR DEMOCRACY IN THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST ARE 
ALSO ENCOUNTERING DIFFICULTIES FROM EUROPE, AND ESSENTIALLY 
FROM FRANCE, WITH THE WARNING THAT IN THE ARAB WORLD, 
WEAKENING THE REGIMES COULD GENERATE CHAOS, AS WAS THE CASE 
WITH IRAQ. IS DEMOCRATIZATION OF THE MIDDLE EAST REALISTIC, IF 
THE U.S. AND ITS EUROPEAN PARTNERS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIVERGING 
VIEWS ON THE GOALS AS WELL AS THE MEANS?" LEACH