US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1366

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: RICE'S BEIJING TRIP AND THE 
ANTI-SECESSION LAW 
 
Summary: The focus of the major Chinese-language Taipei 
dailies has shifted March 24 from China's Anti- 
Secession Law to local politics and the planned mass 
rally that will be hosted by the DPP this coming 
Saturday to protest the law.  Former AIT Chairman 
Richard Bush and incumbent Director of the Center for 
Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings 
Institute, out of concern for the cross-Strait 
situation, said in an op-ed piece in the centrist 
"China Times" that in response to the Anti-Secession 
Law, the exercise of restraint will best meet Taiwan's 
own interests and will win approval from the United 
States.  When commenting on U.S. Secretary of State 
Condoleezza Rice's recent trip to Beijing, Washington 
correspondent James Wang said in the pro-independence 
"Taiwan Daily" that Rice's decision not to repeat the 
sentence that "Washington does not support Taiwan 
independence" is the easiest way for the Bush 
administration to show its displeasure over China's 
hegemonic behavior.  A limited-circulation, pro- 
independence English-language "Taiwan News" editorial 
said the actual focus of Rice's greatest concern with 
regard to her trip to Asia was related to the PRC.  End 
summary. 
 
A) "It Would Be Best for Taiwan If It Does Not 
Overreact Too Much [to China's Anti-Secession Law]" 
 
Former AIT Chairman Richard Bush wrote to the centrist, 
pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 600,000] 
(3/24): 
 
" . Then how should Taiwan keep an appropriate balance 
between challenging Beijing's `Anti-Secession Law' and 
exercising self-restraint?  I believe it to be correct 
for the Taiwan authorities to exercise restraint by 
far.  Taiwan should avoid moves that would add oil to 
the fire, or it will be unable to adopt more positive 
steps when the atmosphere across the Taiwan Strait gets 
better. . 
 
"The third reason for Taiwan to exercise restraint has 
something to do with the role of the United States. 
Because the United States has a security commitment to 
Taiwan and the fact that Beijing might misjudge the 
impact of the clash of interests caused by Taiwan's 
moves, Washington and Taiwan need to deal with the 
situation adroitly through close negotiations.  The 
Bush administration has explicitly told Beijing that it 
opposes the Anti-Secession Law.  One day when the 
conditions for China to utilize `non-peaceful measures' 
are ready, Washington will make a detached judgment and 
take action.  No matter now or hereafter, the United 
States can take powerful action to constrain Beijing's 
moves if Taiwan can live up to Washington's 
expectations from the beginning to the end. 
 
"Lastly, if Taiwan maintains its self-control, it would 
be more easier to extend from the negotiations during 
cross-Strait charter flights for the Lunar New Year to 
positive development on bilateral relations.  It would 
suit Taiwan's needs to keep pushing for progress in a 
way with principles.  To show self-control for the time 
being can keep [alive] precious possibilities in the 
future.  Until then, Taiwan could also win approvals 
from the United States. 
 
"Maybe some people think Beijing will interpret 
Taiwan's self-control as showing weakness.  However, 
self-control in this case could strengthen Taiwan's 
position.  It would allow Taiwan to cultivate an 
internal consensus, which is rare, to cope with China's 
moves.  To keep self-control would not increase the 
chance for China's misjudgment, and could show to the 
international community that who the strength that 
maintains cross-Strait stability is.  Keeping self- 
control could consolidate the foundation of Taiwan's 
security, which is the relationship with the United 
States." 
 
B) "Rice Is Using the Measures to Counter Russia When 
Dealing with China" 
 
Washington correspondent James Wang commented in the 
pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 150,000] 
(3/24): 
 
". In her remarks [made in Beijing], [U.S. Secretary of 
State Condoleezza] Rice evidently avoided mentioning 
two sentences that Washington has constantly repeated 
in the past: `The United States does not support Taiwan 
independence' and `Disputes across the Taiwan Strait 
should be resolved by both sides using peaceful means.' 
It would be totally implausible if [we said] the fact 
that Rice skipped the sentence about not supporting 
Taiwan independence has nothing to do with China's 
arbitrary enacting of the Anti-Secession Law.  In the 
name of anti-Taiwan independence, the law attempts to 
annex Taiwan's sovereignty and deprive Taiwan people of 
the right to make a free choice.  If Rice made the 
remark that [the United States] does not support Taiwan 
independence in Beijing, it would be like giving verbal 
support to China to suppress Taiwan people's basic 
political rights - an act that is inconsistent with the 
Bush administration's `to create a balance of power 
that is favorable for freedom.'  [Rice's decision] not 
to repeat that sentence is the easiest way for the Bush 
administration to show its displeasure to the Chinese 
hegemonic behavior. . 
 
"Given the fact that China's future direction is yet 
unclear and it is attempting to intimidate Taiwan using 
the Anti-Secession Law, the possibility of a `peaceful 
resolution' to the cross-Strait issue does not exist at 
all, whether judged by reality or U.S. interests.  The 
United States itself does not want to see any 
alteration to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait; 
therefore, a `peaceful resolution' is a distant goal. 
What really concerns the United States is that neither 
side should use any words or actions to create tensions 
across the Taiwan Strait.  [Rice's] remarks have 
changed the injustice that has been done to Taiwan by 
the [criteria] of `Taiwan does not declare independence 
while Beijing does not use force against Taiwan. .' 
This is a favorable change for Taiwan created by the 
Anti-Secession Law. ." 
 
C) "Rice Visit Defines PRC as U.S. Worry" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" 
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (3/24): 
 
". On the surface, the focal point of [U.S. Secretary 
of State Condoleezza] Rice's hectic excursion, which 
took her through Pakistan, Japan and China, was still 
Washington's effort to resuscitate the dormant six- 
sided talks over the brewing crisis regarding the North 
Korea's apparent possession of nuclear weapons. 
However, the actual object of her greatest concern lay 
in the People's Republic of China. 
 
"Even before she arrived in Beijing, Rice had used a 
carefully crafted and orchestrated series of lectures 
and leaks to set the dominant theme of her visit, 
namely, at least for the next few years, Washington 
considered China as a national security threat instead 
of a `strategic partner. .' 
 
"Even when Rice was the National Security Adviser for 
U.S. President George W. Bush, she believed that the 
main danger to U.S. security in the Pacific region came 
from China. 
 
"Rice's prime concern is the defense of U.S. interests 
and security in the Pacific, not the defense of Taiwan. 
As far as Rice is concerned, China is the chief 
geopolitical rival of the U.S. in the Pacific region 
and is not simply one side or actor in the more narrow 
dispute over the Taiwan Strait. 
 
"The key tone set by Rice in her visit may well remain 
in effect and guide Washington's security and 
diplomatic strategy in Pacific area geopolitics for the 
remainder of Bush's term. ." 
 
PAAL