US embassy cable - 05BOGOTA2728

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 002728 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
DEPT FOR INL, WHA/AND 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: SNAR, KCRM, PTER, CO 
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA: COCA CULTIVATION ESTIMATES 
 
Ref: A) Lima 1288  B) USGAO Report GAO 03-319R Drug Control: 
Coca Cultivation and Eradication Estimates in Colombia 
 
1. (SBU) Summary: The geographic expanse of Colombia, 
adverse meteorological conditions, relocation of cultivation 
to non-traditional growing areas, and the lag between the 
capture of overhead imagery and analysis combine to 
frustrate the estimation of coca cultivation in Colombia. 
Estimates provided by the Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC) 
are useful as a point of departure for gathering more 
focused imagery that is the basis for aerial eradication 
mission planning.  However, as "official" estimates of the 
quantity of coca under cultivation and, by extension, 
Colombia's cocaine production potential, CNC estimates are 
subject to misinterpretation and misuse that undermine the 
tenuous political base of our eradication program.  End 
summary. 
 
2. (SBU) The USG's official estimates of coca and opium 
poppy cultivation in Colombia (and elsewhere - see ref B), 
as compiled by the Crime and Narcotics Center (CNC), are 
politically controversial.  The surveys undertaken are 
indicative of probable cultivations, but as a measure of 
actual coca under cultivation these estimates are of 
questionable practical value (Ref B).  CNC's indications are 
analyzed locally and used as the basis for focused 
overflights by intelligence aircraft equipped with Multi- 
spectral digital Imaging System (MDIS) equipment.  The 
detailed and extensive imagery collected by MDIS aircraft is 
then analyzed and used to map out specific aerial 
eradication missions. 
 
3. (SBU) In compiling its estimates, CNC primarily targets 
areas of known cultivation - the traditional growing areas. 
We have found, however, that the illicit narcotics 
cultivation industry often relocates new fields to areas 
less subject to detection/eradication, i.e., to non- 
traditional growing areas and/or to areas where 
meteorological conditions make detection and eradication via 
aerial spray operations more difficult.  For example, in 
recent years we have detected significant coca cultivations 
in Colombia's national parks and protected indigenous areas 
where aerial spraying is not currently authorized.  Because 
we have not sprayed there, CNC has not previously included 
these areas in its surveys and most of the coca there was 
not included in CNC estimates.  On the basis of our 
observations we estimate that these areas probably contain 
as much as 10 percent of all coca under cultivation in 
Colombia. 
 
4. (SBU) In response to our requests, CNC included selected 
national parks in the 2004 survey.  So while much of this 
coca certainly existed prior to 2004, its inclusion in the 
2004 survey results in a direct increase in official 
estimates of total area under cultivation.  To a large 
extent, where you find coca and how much you find depends on 
where you look.  Capturing "new" coca in official surveys 
does not mean that there is more coca, only that more coca 
is detected and included in official estimates. 
 
5. (SBU) As noted, the CNC's indications of significant 
amounts of coca are a useful basis upon which to conduct 
more detailed imagery gathering and analysis.  But as a 
basis for estimating the actual amount of coca present in 
any region or the country as a whole, CNC estimates have 
little practical value.  For example, for 2003 the CNC 
estimated there were 5700 hectares of coca in Narino 
Department, though we ultimately sprayed in excess of 31,000 
hectares there.  In the 2004 Colombia Presentation the CNC 
indicates 6900 hectares under cultivation in Narino, though 
since January 1 we have already sprayed over 39,000 hectares 
and have missions planned to spray even more.  Such 
disparities are in part a reflection of CNC's sampling 
techniques and inability to adjust data to incorporate the 
ongoing results of a dynamic aerial eradication program. 
But differences so profound inevitably call into question 
the underlying methodology and objectives of CNC's 
estimation techniques.  As the basis for projections of 
Colombia's cocaine production potential, CNC data have 
almost no practical value. 
 
6. (SBU) Comment: Not all aspects of the organization and 
functioning of the illicit narcotics industry are well 
understood.  Official estimates of cultivation, eradication, 
interdiction, etc, are examined closely.  Several interests 
seize upon every opportunity to "prove" the inefficiency, 
ineffectiveness, and overall futility of our eradication 
program.  CNC cultivation estimates for specific regions and 
our actual spray results are but two data points employed in 
the development of what we view as a highly effective 
eradication program.  In the absence of a more complete 
context, the discrepancies between these data can be held up 
as evidence of a lack of scientific basis for our 
eradication program.  End comment. 
 
WOOD