US embassy cable - 05PORTAUPRINCE796

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PORT AU PRINCE 000796 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
STATE FOR WHA AND USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, HA, Elections 
SUBJECT: HAITIAN ELECTIONS: UPDATE ON PRESIDENTIAL 
CANDIDATES 
 
REF: PORT-AU-PRINCE 404 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  With the publication of the electoral 
law, the campaign season has unofficially begun in Haiti. 
There have been a handful of presidential candidacy 
announcements, most notably that of KID's Evans Paul.  We 
expect several more over the next few months.  By June and 
July, most candidates will have either run out of money or 
faced the reality that their candidacy is too weak to have a 
chance. We may see a last minute candidate, which is how 
former priest Jean Bertrand Aristide ran in 1990, and 
eventually won.  End Summary. 
 
The Major Players 
----------------- 
 
2.  (U)  One of Haiti's larger parties, United Democratic 
Convention (KID, Konvansyon Inite Demokratik) held its second 
national convention Sunday, March 20 in Port-au-Prince. 
Approximately 4,000 people attended (including Interim Prime 
Minister Latortue) and heard former Port-au-Prince mayor 
Evans Paul accept his party's nomination as candidate for 
President. Paul spoke of the party's readiness to join 
several parties in an alliance (septel) including MRN, 
Reponse, Tet Ansemn and Popular Party to Renew 
Haiti/Generation 2004.  (Note: While KID enjoys strong 
support in the capital, its presence in the rural areas would 
benefit from an alliance. End Note.) 
 
3.  (SBU)  Perennial presidential candidate professor Leslie 
Manigat was the first to formally announce his candidacy at a 
February 7 press conference hosted at the offices of the 
European Union.  Manigat is the leader of the Assembly of 
Progressive National Democrats (RDNP) and was constitutional 
president during February-June 1988 (when Interim Prime 
Minister Latortue was Foreign Minister). He said he would 
maintain a low profile "so as not to attract too much 
debate." Manigat was presumably referring to his chairmanship 
of the National Commission Celebrating the Bicentennial, 
which has traveled throughout the country holding seminars 
and events in Haitian history and independence. Rivals have 
charged that Manigat is campaigning at the expense of the 
Haitian taxpayer and point to Prime Minister Latortue's ties 
to his former boss. 
 
4.  (SBU)  We expect Serge Gilles to publicly announce his 
candidacy as the Social Democrats presidential candidate 
during the party's April 15 national convention. We have 
heard there may be some within the fusion parties (PANPRA, 
KONAKOM and Ayiti Kapab) who would challenge his candidacy, 
but most of the parties' leaders have confided to us that 
Gilles would be the candidate. 
 
5.  (SBU)  The other major parties that have not decided on a 
presidential candidate are OPL (Struggling People's 
Organization) and Fanmi Lavalas.  Within OPL, there appears 
to be jockeying between the Executive Committee's Secretary 
General (and former senator) Edgard Leblanc, Jr., and 
Spokesperson (and former senator) Paul Denis to be the 
party's pick.  Former Prime Minister Rosny Smarth is the 
party's national coordinator for training and could also be a 
viable candidate due to his national name recognition. 
 
6.  (SBU) Fanmi Lavalas is still trying to find its way out 
from under Aristide's shadow and while some moderates have 
told us they will participate in the elections, it is unclear 
who would represent Lavalas as a presidential candidate. 
There are other well-known leaders, including GREH's Himmler 
Rebu (who has long supported the reconstitution of the army), 
GFCD's Hubert DeRonceray (who ran unsuccessfully in 1990) and 
MODEREH's Prince Sonson who could announce candidacies for 
president if their respective parties do not a pursue 
political alliance. 
 
The Longshots & Unknowns 
------------------------ 
 
7.  (SBU)  There have been a handful of other presidential 
candidacy announcements, albeit without as much fanfare as 
the major candidates.  Chevannes Jeune-Jean of the National 
Union of Christians for the Reconstruction of Haiti (UNCRH) 
is a pastor and prominent evangelical leader.  The UNCRH 
recently announced an alliance with MOCHRENA, the Protestant 
party led by Luc Mesadieu that has a large following in the 
south. It remains to be seen which leader will emerge as the 
alliance's presidential candidate, but both harbor those 
ambitions. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Samir Mourra of the Mobilization for Haiti (MPH) 
has already held rallies in Gonaives and Cap-Haitien touting 
his candidacy. He formed the party in November 2004, but has 
told us he has had problems registering it with the Ministry 
of Justice. Mourra is the ex-brother-in-law to former Haitian 
dictator Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier.  The 49-year old 
American citizen faces an uphill battle to even get his name 
on the ballot since the Haitian constitution does not 
recognize dual-citizenship, nor allow a non-Haitian to run 
for president. 
 
9.  (SBU) Paul Arcelin of CRIH publicly announced his 
candidacy for the presidency earlier this month. Arcelin was 
the Haitian Ambassador (under Prosper Avril) to the Dominican 
Republic while his brother Yves was the Haitian Ambassador to 
Canada. Since 2003, Arcelin has been the Democratic 
Convergence's spokesperson in Santo Domingo and last year 
described himself as the political lieutenant to FRN's Guy 
Phillipe. 
 
10.  (U)  Dr. Gregoire Eugene, Jr. heads the Social Christian 
Party of Haiti (PSCH), founded in 1979 by his father.  Eugene 
is a 51-year old medical doctor based in Ft. Lauderdale, 
Florida. 
 
11.  (U)  Level Francois is the leader of the National 
Committee for the Development of Haiti (KNDA). He was 
educated in the U.S. and runs a micro-financial lending 
institution. 
 
12.  (U)  Dominique Joseph is the presidential candidate of 
the Committee for Reconciliation and National Union (KRUNA). 
Joseph is the director of OCODE, a developmental NGO. OCODE 
has prominent signs throughout the capital with motivational 
phrases such as "Working Together Leads to Development". 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
13.  (SBU)  We expect several more announcements of 
candidacies over the next few months.  Most will announce 
their candidacies publicly following the respective party 
national conferences taking place in April and May.  All 
candidates must formally register in August.  As the campaign 
gets into full swing in June and July, many candidates will 
have either run out of money or face the reality that their 
candidacy is too weak to have a chance. What we could also 
see is the last minute candidate, in the manner that former 
priest Jean Bertrand Aristide ran, and eventually won, in 
1990. If Fanmi Lavalas decides to field a candidate we expect 
they will pursue this strategy again.  End comment. 
FOLEY