US embassy cable - 05PARIS1936

C O N F I D E N T I A L PARIS 001936 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2015 
TAGS: PREL, TO, IV, CG, FR 
SUBJECT: CHIRAC'S AFRICA ADVISOR RELAXED ON TOGO, WORRIED 
ON COTE D'IVOIRE 
 
REF: A. LOME 280 
     B. LOME 289 
     C. LOME 290 
 
Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Josiah Rosenblatt 
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
1.  (C) SUMMARY:  According to President Chirac's Africa 
advisor, the situation in Togo is not worrisome.  He believes 
that the elections will produce a winner, probably Faure 
Gnassingbe, who will be accepted by the population.  In the 
case of an opposition win, ECOWAS will ensure that the 
military accept the result of the poll.  He expressed 
frustration about Ivoirian President Gbagbo and concern over 
ECOWAS plans to put pressure on the Ivoirian leader if he has 
not budged by the time his mandate expires.  END SUMMARY. 
 
TOGO 
 
2. (C) In a chance encounter on a Paris street March 22, 
Embassy Africa watcher met Michel de Bonnecorse, President 
Chirac's advisor on African affairs.  Responding to a query 
about his trip to Togo as President Chirac's personal 
representative at Gnassingbe Eyadema's funeral (FM Barnier 
was France's official representative), Bonnecorse offered 
that the situation in Togo was "not worrying,"  adding that 
whoever won the election would be accepted by supporters of 
the other candidate. 
 
3. (C) Without mentioning Interior Minister Akila-Esso Boko's 
concerns expressed to Ambassador Engle (Ref C), Africa 
watcher queried whether there was a risk that if Faure 
Gnassingbe won, there would be protests on the street, and if 
Emmanuel Akitani-Bob won, the army would refuse to accept the 
result.  Bonnecorse replied that ECOWAS was putting pressure 
on "the generals" to ensure that the latter scenario did not 
play out.  Without stating a preference for Gnassingbe (Ref 
A), Bonnecorse added that it was not certain that Akitani-Bob 
would win in any case. 
 
4. (C) Bonnecorse expressed interest in Gilchrist Olympio's 
meeting with Ambassador Engle (Ref B).  Africa watcher 
responded that it had appeared that Olympio and his UFC 
colleagues had expressed no strategy for the elections. 
Bonnecorse replied "as always!"  Bonnecorse added that 
Olympio's only platform was "TSF" (Tout Sauf Faure - Anyone 
Except Faure).  Continuing on Olympio, Bonnecorse said that 
Akitani-Bob, should he win the election, would stand aside 
and call new elections as soon as Olympio had met the 
constitutional residency requirement.  Asked whether the GoF 
anticipated that Olympio would return to Paris, Bonnecorse 
replied that the UFC leader would "come and go" between Paris 
and Lome for the foreseeable future. 
 
COTE D'IVOIRE 
 
5. (C) Bonnecorse told us that he had visited Mali following 
his attendance at Eyadema's funeral.  He told us that ECOWAS 
was planning to exert some kind of pressure (NFI) on Ivoirian 
President Gbagbo if he had not "budged" by the time his 
mandate expired in October.  This, according to Bonnecorse, 
created a dangerous situation as it was obvious that Gbagbo 
had no intention of budging.  In response to our suggestion 
that it was becoming increasingly obvious that elections 
would not take place in October, Bonnecorse agreed, saying he 
had believed until February that elections were possible, but 
not now. 
 
DRC and CONGO/B 
 
6. (C) Bonnecorse told us that following an Easter vacation, 
he would be traveling to Kinshasa and Brazzaville. 
 
7. (C) COMMENT:  Although the circumstances of the meeting 
did not allow for full discussion, we note that while 
Bonnecorse appeared to believe that Gnassingbe would win the 
Togolese elections, he admitted the possibility of an 
opposition win.  While Bonnecorse, consistent with dismissive 
remarks by other GoF officials who have described Olympio to 
us as a "has-been," was critical of the UFC leader, his 
interest in the UFC leader's meeting with Ambassador Engle 
suggests to us that, with the death of Eyadema, Bonnecorse 
considers that Olympio and the UFC may yet be a force to be 
reckoned with.  END COMMENT. 
Leach