US embassy cable - 05ASUNCION405

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ASUNCION 000405 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
 
FOR DS/IP/ITA, DS/IP/WHA, POSTS FOR RSO 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2030 
TAGS: PTER, ASEC 
SUBJECT: ASUNCION - SETL RESPONSE 
 
REF: STATE 23078 
 
Classified By: TED R. CARPENTER, RSO: REASON 1.4 (C)(D)(G) 
 
------------------ 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE 
------------------ 
 
1.  (U) DEMONSTRATIONS 
 
 
A:  (SBU) Are there any ethnic or religious communities in 
country capable of carrying out significant anti-American 
demonstrations? Yes.  Ethnic groups with foreign influences, 
i.e. Lebanese Hizbollah, Palestinian radical groups. That 
said, there has not been a history of protests by these 
groups. 
 
B.  (SBU) Have there been any anti-American demonstrations in 
the country within the last 12 months?  Yes.  On August 13, 
at approximately 1915 hours, a group of approximately 50 
demonstrators approached the Embassy to protest U.S. policy 
in Venezuela.  The protesters consisted mainly of leftist 
university students and members of a campesino organization 
(MCNOC). The leader of the group was an individual named LUIS 
((AGUAYO)).  The protesters stated that they would hold the 
USG responsible for any attack or incident against President 
Hugo Chavez during the "referendum" to be held August 15 in 
Venezuela.  They also shouted that the Ambassador should 
leave Paraguay. 
 
C.  (SBU) Have demonstrations taken place near or in front of 
U.S. diplomatic facilities? 
Yes. See above. 
 
D.  (SBU) What is the average size of an anti-American 
demonstrations? 50. 
 
E.  (SBU) Are demonstrations usually triggered by U.S. 
foreign policy initiatives, military actions, or by domestic 
issues? U.S. foreign policy initiatives. 
 
F.  (SBU) Are demonstrations generally violent or peaceful? 
Peaceful. 
 
G.  (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrations resulted in 
damage to USG property or injuries to USG employees? No. 
 
H.  (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrators ever penetrated 
our perimeter security line? 
No. 
 
I.  (SBU) Have there been any anti-government demonstrations 
in the country within the last 12 months? Yes. Demonstrations 
are common in Paraguay.  In March 2004, the Cooperatives' 
Union and the mechanized farmers, led by the Agricultural 
Coordination of Paraguay (CAP), led 5,000 protesters and a 
fleet of more than 500 vehicles on a march through downtown 
Asuncion to denounce the GOP's proposed tax hikes.  On June 
4, over 15,000 students marched through downtown Asuncion to 
the Congressional building to call for new measures to combat 
violence against young Paraguayans. The march was a response 
to two specific incidents, the first was a murder of an 
18-year old high school student, targeted by two muggers for 
his cell phone, and the other was an 11-year old girl in a 
small town outside Asuncion who was raped and murdered by a 
man in his early twenties.  In August 2004, several weeks of 
protests were carried out by campesino groups protesting the 
GOP's land policy. They blocked roads, occupied properties, 
and marched on Government ministries and the Congress. 
 
J.  (SBU) Have demonstrations taken place near or in front of 
U.S. diplomatic facilities? Yes, within a mile of the U.S. 
Embassy. 
 
K.  (SBU) What is the average size of an anti-government 
demonstration? Up to several thousand participants. 
 
L.  (SBU) Are these demonstrations generally violent or 
peaceful? Peaceful but with potential for violence.  Violent 
confrontations are usually limited to protesters clashing 
with police. 
M.  (SBU) If violent, have any demonstrations resulted in 
damage to USG property? No. 
 
2.  (U) MACRO CONFLICT CONDITIONS 
 
A.  (SBU) Is the host country engaged in an interstate or 
intrastate conflict?  (This may include battles between 
organized and violent drug cartels).  Drug 
cartels/organizations have engaged in violent conflict in 
Paraguay.  Additionally, there are active campesino movements 
tied to the landless movement (MST) in Brazil which conduct 
regular land invasions. 
 
B.  (SBU) If an intrastate conflict, is it an insurgency that 
is limited to a specific region or a country wide civil war? 
Drug trafficking violence is predominantly limited to regions 
bordering Brazil and Argentina. 
 
C.  (SBU) If limited to a specific region, are any U.S. 
diplomatic facilities located in this region? No. 
 
D.  (SBU) Have any of the factions involved in these 
intrastate conflicts signaled or demonstrated an 
anti-American orientation? No. 
 
3.  (U) HOST COUNTRY CAPABILITIES 
 
A.  (SBU) Are law enforcement agencies professional and well 
trained? In general, the National Police are poorly trained, 
badly equipped and lack professionalism. 
 
B.  (SBU) Have they been trained by U.S. agencies? Some 
specialized units have been trained by U.S. agencies. DS/ATA 
courses have been provided in Crisis Management, VIP 
Protection, etc. 
 
C.  (SBU) Are law enforcement agencies confronted with 
serious widespread corruption inside their agencies? Yes. 
 
D.  (SBU) Are the intelligence services professional and 
capable of deterring terrorist actions?  Paraguay does not 
have national level intelligence service.  Post receives 
excellent cooperation form the anti-terrorist unit of the 
Paraguayan National Police. 
 
E.  (SBU) Have the intelligence services been cooperative 
with U.S. Embassy request for information and support? Yes. 
It has convicted and sentenced three individualsThe 
Paraguayan government has been very responsive to drug and 
counterterrorism efforts. 
 
F.  (SBU) Have host country security services scored any 
major anti-terrorism successes? Yes. It has convicted and 
sentenced three individuals implicated in terrorism financing 
to prison on charges of tax evasion. 
 
G.  (SBU) Has host country been responsive (re: timeliness 
and allocation of resources) to Embassy requests for 
protective security? Yes. 
 
H.  (SBU) How does the Embassy assess the overall security at 
major airports in the country (Excellent, very good, 
good/average, poor)? Poor. 
 
I.  (SBU) How effective are customs and immigration control 
agencies? Ineffective. 
 
J.  (SBU) How effective are border patrol forces? Ineffective. 
 
-------------------- 
INDIGENOUS TERRORISM 
-------------------- 
 
4.  (U) ANTI-AMERICAN TERRORIST GROUPS 
 
A.  (SBU) Are there indigenous anti-American terrorist groups 
in country? No 
 
B - H. (U) Not applicable. 
 
5.  (U) OTHER INDIGENOUS TERRORIST GROUPS 
 
A.  (SBU) Are there other indigenous terrorist groups (not 
anti-American) in country? No. 
 
B-E. (U) Not applicable. 
----------------------- 
TRANSNATIONAL TERRORISM 
----------------------- 
 
6.  (U) TRANSNATIONAL TERRORIST INDICATORS 
 
A.  (S/NF) Are there any foreign terrorist groups that have a 
presence in country? Yes.  Lebanese Hizballah, Hamas, AMAL, 
Al-Gama'at and the FARC. 
B.  (S/NF) How does the EAC asses this presence? Is it an 
operation cell? Financial cell? Support Cell? Propaganda 
cell?  In the case of Islamic Radical Groups, the EAC 
assesses the presence as financial support and propaganda 
cells. FARC connection to a high profile kidnapping in 
Paraguay was only recently uncovered.  It appears at the very 
least the FARC provided trainging to Paraguayan leftist party 
(Patria Libre) that carried out the kidnapping. 
 
C.  (S/NF) Is the host country sympathetic to these groups? 
No. 
 
D.  (S/NF) Are there suspect non-governmental organizations 
(NGOs) in the country that have a relationship with any of 
these groups? It is not clear the relationship that the FARC 
may have to campesino groups such as FNC or MCNOC,  and to 
what extent the FARC has assumed a role in recent peasant 
demonstrations and land invasions. 
 
E.  (S/NF) Are there any ethnic or religious communities in 
country that are sympathetic to these groups? Yes. 
 
F.  (S/NF) How does the EAC assess the level, intent, and 
scope of hostile intelligence services in country relative to 
potential anti-American terrorist acts? Low. Iran has 
diplomatic presence in Brasilia with officials making 
occasional trips to the tri-border region. 
 
G.  (S/NF) How does the EAC assess the availability of 
weapons and explosives in country or from nearby countries 
for hostile terrorist elements? Readily available. 
 
 
 
 
KEANE