US embassy cable - 02ROME2340

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ROME 002340 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NAIROBI FOR KHARTOUM 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, EAID, XI, IT, UN 
SUBJECT:  NORTH AFRICA:  OUTLOOK FOR DEMOCRACY SUBJECT OF 
BOLOGNA CONFERENCE 
 
1.  SUMMARY: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY AND THE UNIVERSITY OF 
BOLOGNA PRESENTED A CONFERENCE MAY 3-4 ON STRATEGIES FOR A 
PLURALISTIC FUTURE IN NORTH AFRICA.  ACADEMICIANS AND 
PRACTITIONERS FROM THE UNITED STATES, EUROPE, AND NORTH 
AFRICA PRESENTED THE HISTORICAL AND PRESENT-DAY CONTEXT IN 
WHICH DEMOCRATS STRUGGLE FOR RULE OF LAW, POLITICAL 
PARTICIPATION, AND FREEDOM FOR CIVIL SOCIETY.  PROMINENT 
THEMES INCLUDED THE ANTI-COLONIAL LEGACY'S HINDRANCE OF 
DEMOCRACY; INTERNAL AND FOREIGN FEARS THAT ELECTIONS COULD 
BRING ISLAMISTS TO POWER; THE IMPACT OF POLITICAL PARTIES ON 
ACCOUNTABILITY; WHETHER PATRIARCHY AFFECTS DEMOCRATIZATION; 
THE RELEVANCE OF OIL, TRIBALISM, AND MILITARISM; AND THE 
IRRELEVANCE OF ISLAM AND CULTURE AS FACTORS IMPEDING 
DEMOCRACY IN THE MUSLIM WORLD.  AREAS IN WHICH DONOR SUPPORT 
WAS CITED AS ONLY MARGINALLY EFFECTIVE OR EVEN 
COUNTER-PRODUCTIVE INCLUDED HUMAN RIGHTS TRAINING, PREMATURE 
DEVELOPMENT OF MULTI-PARTY SYSTEMS, AND MILITARY AID. 
PRESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED STRENGTHENING THE PRIVATE SECTOR, 
ENCOURAGING THE EMERGENCE OF INDEPENDENT MEDIA, AND BEING 
LESS FEARFUL OF THE POSSIBILITY OF UNDESIRABLE SHORT-TERM 
ELECTORAL OUTCOMES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  THE JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY BOLOGNA CENTER, UNIVERSITY 
OF BOLOGNA (UB) FACULTY OF LAW'S CENTER FOR CONSTITUTIONAL 
STUDIES AND DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT, AND UB'S "KING ABDULAZIZ" 
INTERNATIONAL CENTER OF ISLAMIC STUDIES SPONSORED A 
CONFERENCE IN BOLOGNA MAY 3-4.  ENTITLED, "STRATEGIES FOR THE 
FUTURE OF NORTH AFRICA: THE CHANGING DIMENSIONS OF LAW, 
POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND CIVIL SOCIETY," THE MEETING 
BROUGHT TOGETHER ACADEMICIANS, PRACTITIONERS, DIPLOMATS, AND 
STUDENTS FOR A CLOSE LOOK AT A REGION THAT HAS RESISTED THE 
DEMOCRATIZATION TREND THAT HAS SWEPT OVER EASTERN EUROPE AND 
LATIN AMERICA.  THE MOST PROMINENT SPEAKER WAS WILLIAM 
QUANDT, VICE PROVOST FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS AT THE 
UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA AND FORMER NSC STAFF MEMBER UNDER THE 
NIXON AND CARTER ADMINISTRATIONS.  THE FOLLOWING REPORT IS A 
COMPILATION OF THE VIEWS EXPRESSED. 
 
FACTORS IMPEDING DEMOCRACY IN NORTH AFRICA--OR NOT 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
3.  TRIBALISM.  IN ARAB SOCIETIES, PARTICULARLY BEDOUIN ONES, 
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC SOLIDARITY AND POWER HAS TRADITIONALLY 
BEEN RELATED TO FAMILY AND TRIBAL GROUPINGS.  MEMBERS OF 
POWERFUL FAMILIES OR TRIBES BENEFIT FROM THIS UNDEMOCRATIC 
SYSTEM AND HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE TO CREATE A SYSTEM THAT 
APPLIES THE LAWS EQUALLY TO EVERYONE.  IN THIS CONTEXT, A 
FORM OF DEMOCRACY THAT PROVIDED FOR SOME POWER SHARING ALONG 
TRIBAL LINES MIGHT BE APPROPRIATE. 
 
4.  THE ANTI-COLONIAL LEGACY.  MOST OF THE LEADERS AND ELITES 
IN NORTH AFRICA ARE VETERANS OF THE BITTER STRUGGLE AGAINST 
EUROPEAN COLONIALISM.  THE CONSTITUTIONS THEY WROTE WERE 
PRIMARILY INTENDED TO EMPOWER THEIR STATES TO FIGHT THE 
COLONIAL POWER.  CITIZENS' RIGHTS WERE SECONDARY. 
FURTHERMORE, THE CONCEPT OF DEMOCRACY ITSELF WAS CONSIDERED 
HYPOCRITICAL BECAUSE IT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH EUROPEAN 
COUNTRIES WHOSE BEHAVIOR IN NORTH AFRICA TOOK LITTLE ACCOUNT 
OF THE POPULATIONS' WISHES. 
 
5.  MILITARISM.  THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT HAS BEEN USED AS 
AN EXCUSE TO POSTPONE DEMOCRACY.  IT IS TRUE, HOWEVER, THAT 
ARAB GOVERNMENTS HAVE STRENGTHENED THEIR MILITARIES IN ORDER 
TO DEFEND THEIR INTERESTS AGAINST A HEAVILY MILITARIZED 
ISRAEL.  THESE MILITARIES HAVE EITHER SEIZED POWER AND 
MAINTAINED DICTATORSHIPS OR DEFENDED AUTOCRATIC MONARCHIES. 
 
6.  RENTIER STATES.  THE PROMINENT ROLE THAT OIL AND GAS PLAY 
IN THE ECONOMIES OF ALGERIA AND LIBYA MAKE THEM "RENTIER 
STATES."  IN EGYPT, U.S. AID CAUSES A SIMILAR EFFECT.  SINCE 
TAXES PAID BY CITIZENS DO NOT FILL GOVERNMENT COFFERS, THE 
PUBLIC HAS LITTLE LEVERAGE TO DEMAND GOVERNMENT 
ACCOUNTABILITY AND RESPONSIVENESS.  THE RESULT IS OFTEN 
CORRUPTION AND ABUSE OF CITIZENS' RIGHTS. 
 
7.  FEAR OF ISLAMIST GOVERNMENT.  BOTH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL 
ACTORS FEAR THAT ISLAMISTS COULD INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE 
THROUGH AN EXPANSION OF FREEDOM OR DEMOCRACY.  WHEN ALGERIA'S 
ISLAMIC SALVATION FRONT (FIS) SWEPT FIRST-ROUND ELECTIONS IN 
1991, NOT ONLY THE ARMY BUT ALSO COMPONENTS OF CIVIL SOCIETY 
DECIDED TO ANNUL THE RESULTS.  THE THEORY WAS THAT THE FIS 
WOULD NOT HOLD DEMOCRATIC ELECTIONS IN THE FUTURE, DESPITE 
THEIR ASSURANCES.  TODAY WESTERN GOVERNMENTS ARE LESS AFRAID 
OF ISLAMIST RULE THAN THEY WERE IN 1991, AND THE CIVIL WAR 
THAT THE ANNULMENT SPARKED HAS MADE MANY PEOPLE RECONSIDER 
HOW BAD FIS RUL WOULD REALLY HAVE BEEN. 
 
8.  ISLAM.  ONE SPEAKER STATED THAT THERE IS NO FULLY 
DEMOCRATIC STATE WITH A MAJORITY MUSLIM POPULATION ANYWHERE. 
NOTE:  SENEGAL IS AN EXCEPTION.  END NOTE.  HOWEVER, THIS 
LACK OF DEMOCRACY CANNOT BE ATTRIBUTED TO RELIGION.  NOTHING 
IN ISLAMIC TEXTS IS UNFAVORABLE TO DEMOCRACY, NOR IS ANYTHING 
IN CHRISTIAN TEXTS FAVORABLE TO DEMOCRACY.  INTERPRETATION 
AND PRACTICE ARE KEY.  SINCE MANY NON-MUSLIM COUNTRIES ARE 
ALSO UNDEMOCRATIC, OTHER FACTORS MUST EXPLAIN THE LACK OF 
DEMOCRACY.  FURTHERMORE, AT ONE TIME, THE LACK OF DEMOCRACY 
IN PLACES LIKE LATIN AMERICA AND FASCIST SPAIN AND ITALY WAS 
ATTRIBUTED TO CATHOLIC CULTURE.  HISTORY HAS PROVEN THAT THE 
"PATRIARCHAL"--EVEN "DICTATORIAL"--NATURE OF CATHOLICISM DOES 
NOT IMPEDE DEMOCRACY. 
 
9.  CULTURE.  MANY WESTERNERS BELIEVE THAT ARAB CULTURE MUST 
BE INIMICAL TO DEMOCRACY, BUT RESEARCH SHOWS THAT DEMOCRATIC 
VALUES ARE EQUALLY WIDESPREAD AMONG MUSLIMS AND WESTERNERS. 
SURVEY DATA SHOW SIMILAR ATTITUDES AMONG MUSLIMS AND 
WESTERNERS ON THE IMPORTANCE OF DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS AND 
PRACTICES, PREFERENCE FOR STRONG LEADERS, AND THE ROLE OF 
RELIGIOUS LEADERS IN THE POLITICAL ARENA. 
 
ISLAM, PATRIARCHY, AND DICTATORSHIP: DIVERGENT VIEWS 
 
10.  SO DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE TO PROSPECTS FOR DEMOCRACY 
THAT ARAB CULTURE IS LARGELY PATRIARCHAL AND THAT 
SHARI'A-BASED FAMILY LAW CODES DISCRIMINATE AGAINST WOMEN IN 
MATTERS OF INHERITANCE AND JUDICIAL TESTIMONY?  THIS WAS THE 
MOST CONTROVERSIAL SUBJECT AT THE CONFERENCE.  SOME SCHOLARS 
STATED THAT SINCE THE FAMILY IS THE BASIC UNIT OF SOCIETY, 
THE AUTHORITARIAN FAMILY MODEL--IN WHICH THE HUSBAND IS 
UNQUESTIONABLE--CONDITIONS CITIZENS TO ACCEPT DICTATORSHIP. 
HOWEVER, OTHERS NOTED THAT WOMEN'S LIBERATION IS NOT 
NECESSARILY A PREREQUISITE FOR DEMOCRACY.  IN THE WEST, 
DEMOCRACY WAS INTRODUCED (ALBEIT IN A LIMITED FORM) BEFORE 
WOMEN WERE ENFRANCHISED.  FINALLY, DESPITE THE COMMON 
STEREOTYPES, ARAB WOMEN ARE NEITHER POWERLESS IN THE FAMILY 
NOR NECESSARILY OPPOSED TO ISLAMIST PARTIES AND CAUSES. 
 
MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY NOT NECESSARY THE IDEAL 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
11.  A PARTY-LESS OR WEAK PARTY SYSTEM MAY ACTUALLY BE 
PREFERABLE TO A MULTI-PARTY SYSTEM, SINCE THE HEAD OF STATE 
IS LESS ABLE TO DOMINATE THE LEGISLATURE THROUGH CONTROL BY 
HIS OWN PARTY.  INSTEAD OF PROMOTING PARTY DEVELOPMENT IN A 
TOP-HEAVY SYSTEM, INTERNAL ACTORS NEED TO CREATE 
CONSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES THAT PROVIDE FOR INDEPENDENCE OR 
CHECKS AND BALANCES BETWEEN THE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT AND 
CIVIL SOCIETY. 
 
HOW DONORS WASTE MONEY IN NORTH AFRICA 
-------------------------------------- 

12.  DONORS HAVE GIVEN LITTLE ATTENTION TO DEMOCRATIC 
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH AFRICA.  MOST OF THE FOREIGN AID GIVEN 
GOES TO EGYPT'S MILITARY.  SPEAKERS RECOMMENDED THAT THE USG 
INCREASE ITS CONTRIBUTIONS TO DEMOCRATIZATION PROJECTS AND 
REDUCE MILITARY AID.  HUMAN RIGHTS TRAINING FOR POLICE AND 
ELECTION COMMISSIONERS, HOWEVER, MAY BE OF LITTLE USE IN 
SYSTEMS THAT STILL DEPEND ON REPRESSION--NOT LEGITIMACY--FOR 
SOCIAL CONTROL. 
 
OPPORTUNITIES TO HELP 
--------------------- 
 
13. POLITICAL OPENING COMES ABOUT THROUGH INTERNAL CHANGE, 
AND EXTERNAL ACTORS' ROLES ARE MARGINAL.  HOWEVER, DONORS 
SHOULD LOOK TO ENCOURAGE THREE PROMISING TRENDS: THE 
IMPROVEMENT IN LOCAL MEDIA, SOME NEW ENTREPRENEURISM, AND THE 
SEA CHANGE IN ATTITUDES TOWARDS DEMOCRACY.  USING HISTORY AS 
A GUIDE, THEY SHOULD LOOK FOR OPPORTUNITIES FOR 
TRANSFORMATION.  THIS CAN HAPPEN WHEN COMPETING SOCIAL FORCES 
ARE EXHAUSTED BUT NEITHER SIDE IS DOMINANT, FOR EXAMPLE WHEN 
A CIVIL WAR ENDS.  ALTERNATIVELY, A SOCIAL PACT CAN BE 
CONSTRUCTED WHEN THERE ARE SEVERE DIVISIONS WITHIN AN 
AUTOCRACY AND CREDIBLE PARTIES ON BOTH SIDES (E.G., 
GOVERNMENT AND OPPOSITION) THAT ARE ABLE TO DELIVER. 
 
A VISION FOR THE FUTURE 
----------------------- 
 
14.  IN SPITE OF THE MANY CHALLENGES FACING THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF DEMOCRACY IN NORTH AFRICA, ONE SPEAKER--AN ITALIAN--STATED 
THAT NORTH AFRICA IS MORE PROPERLY PART OF EUROPE THAN 
AFRICA.  WITH THIS IN MIND, CAN WE IMAGINE THAT THIRTY YEARS 
FROM NOW NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES WILL BE SO ECONOMICALLY AND 
POLITICALLY DEVELOPED THAT THEY COULD ASPIRE TO BECOME 
MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN UNION?  IN THE MEANTIME, NORTH AFRICA 
COULD LEARN FROM THE DEMOCRACY LESSONS OF MUSLIM DEMOCRACIES 
LIKE SENEGAL AND EVENTUALLY TIP THE BALANCE ON THE AFRICAN 
CONTINENT TOWARD PEACEFUL POLITICAL PLURALISM. 
SEMBLER