US embassy cable - 05BANGKOK2087

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002087 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV, INR/B 
PACOM OF FPA (HUSO) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, TH, Political Parties, Southern Thailand, US-Thai FTA, BIO Info 
SUBJECT: THAILAND: AMBASSADOR CALLS ON NEW DEMOCRAT PARTY 
LEADER APHISIT 
 
REF: BANGKOK 1933 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY:  On March 21 the Ambassador met with 
newly installed Democrat Party (DP) leader Aphisit 
Wetchachiwa.  Aphisit spoke candidly about mistakes made by 
the DP during the election and discussed how he hoped to form 
the party into an effective opposition to Prime Minister 
Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party.  Acknowledging the 
seriousness of the situation in southern Thailand, Aphisit 
said the creation of a National Reconciliation Commission 
(NRC) offered the Thaksin administration a rare opportunity 
to change its current failing policy; but the DP was not 
convinced Thaksin would turn from populist calls for a 
continued hard-line approach.  Aphisit said Free Trade 
Agreements would continue to be the government's highest 
external priority.  Aphisit is young, smart, telegenic, 
articulate, and ambitious and could develop into a serious 
future challenger for Thaksin.  END SUMMARY 
 
AFTER THE ELECTION DISASTER, A NEW DEMOCRAT LEADER 
 
2.  (U)  On March 21 the Ambassador met with newly installed 
Democrat Party (DP) leader Aphisit Wetchachiwa at the party's 
headquarters.  Aphisit assumed leadership of the DP after 
Banyat Bantadtan stepped down (along with the entire DP 
Executive Board) on February 8, 2005 following the party's 
staggering defeat in the general election.  The DP's 96 seats 
in Parliament leave them unable to raise censure motions 
against Prime Minister Thaksin's ministers. 
 
3.  (U)  The DP, with more that 3.8 million registered 
members, is Thailand's oldest active political party and has 
deep roots in modern Thai democratic history (reftel). 
However, the party has struggled with its current role as the 
opposition party and has developed few successful approaches 
to confront Thaksin and the TRT.  During the election, the DP 
was unable to pose a strong alternative to Thaksin, offering 
policies that mimicked the TRT's while virtually conceding 
defeat more than a year in advance. 
 
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE DEMOCRATS IN THE ELECTION? 
 
4.  (SBU)  Discussing the recent election, Aphisit admitted 
the DP never offered a credible alternative to Thaksin and 
Thai Rak Thai (TRT).  He said the DP had "no clear message," 
and didn't offer policy ideas clearly different from 
Thaksin's populist measures.  Aphisit said the DP would not 
be an effective opposition party until they convinced the 
public that they could effectively govern the country.  He 
promised that the DP would start offering alternatives to 
Thaksin and TRT, instead of just criticizing from the 
sidelines. 
 
5.  (SBU)  Aphisit has indicated publicly that he is serious 
about restructuring the DP to be more pro-active and capable 
of dealing with the new style of politics that Thaksin has 
introduced.  He has also set a target of attracting at least 
14 million votes in the 2009 general election; almost double 
the votes the party received in February of this year. 
Aphisit told the Ambassador that the DP would learn from 
Thaksin and TRT's sophisticated campaign methods. 
 
BECOMING AN EFFECTIVE OPPOSITION 
 
6.  (SBU)  Aphisit agreed that Thai politics is evolving into 
a two party system.  However, the DP has a long way to go 
before it is a credible alternative to Thaksin's TRT. 
Aphisit said that the DP's goal was to establish a "shadow" 
cabinet within two years, and within four years to have 
developed enough credibility with the public to be viewed as 
a real alternative to TRT. 
 
WILLING TO WORK WITH THAKSIN ON THE SOUTH 
 
7.  (SBU)  The Democrats won decisively in southern Thailand, 
winning 52 of the region's 54 seats.  They did especially 
well in the three troubled provinces of Pattani, Yala, and 
Narathiwat, winning 10 of 11 seats -- including six held by 
TRT incumbents.  The DP's strong regional victory seems to 
indicate a popular backlash to the Government's heavy-handed 
security policy.  Following the election, Aphisit has 
traveled to the region, and has publicly discussed 
alternatives to Thaksin's policies. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Aphisit told the Ambassador the situation in 
Thailand's far south is a "national problem," and that he is 
willing to work with the Thaksin administration.  He said 
there had been some hopeful recent developments in the South, 
leading to a more conciliatory atmosphere.  Aphisit said as 
members of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) are 
publicly announced -- and as new policies were presented -- 
the DP would offer suggestions and would not be overly 
critical. 
 
9.  (SBU)  Aphisit opined that the creation of the NRC gave 
the government a small window of opportunity to change its 
approach to the problems of southern Thailand.  Aphisit said 
Anand Panyarachun, the universally respected former Prime 
Minister and designated Chairman of the NRC, will give the 
government good advice, and would not be unduly influenced or 
bullied by Thaksin.  Aphisit is worried, however, that 
Thaksin will "respond" to public opinion -- which clamors for 
a hard-line approach -- and end up ignoring the NRC's 
findings. 
 
10.  (SBU)  Aphisit blames Thaksin for the deteriorating 
situation in the south and the widening gap between the 
Buddhist and Muslim communities.  He cited Thaksin's decision 
to dissolve the combined civilian, military and police 
command (CMP-43), which had been successful in building trust 
among the local populace and coordinating security forces, 
and his insensitive statements about Muslims.  He said 
Thaksin's hard-line approach plays right into separatist 
hands by further alienating the population. 
 
U.S./THAI RELATIONS - FOCUS ON THE FTA 
 
11.  (SBU)  Turning toward the state of U.S./Thai relations, 
Aphisit noted that much of the public's perceptions of the 
U.S. would be influenced by developments in Iraq.  He said 
the government, however, is focused on the FTA.  Aphisit 
believes that Thaksin wants Thailand to become the first 
country to have an FTA with China, India, Japan, and the U.S. 
 He said that the FTA will be the focus of our bilateral 
relationship, and is correspondingly at the top of the DP's 
agenda. 
 
COMMENT 
 
12.  (SBU)  Aphisit is very articulate and speaks in a crisp 
English accent.  He has made for TV good looks, and appears 
even younger than his 40 years.  With his appearance, 
intellect, and experience, Aphisit could evolve into a 
formidable political presence.  However, he has yet to 
demonstrate a forceful personality needed to counter 
Thaksin's.  Aphisit also has a huge challenge in crafting the 
often fractious Democrats into a real opposition party, with 
national reach, that can stand up to Thai Rak Thai and 
recapture Government House.  END COMMENT 
 
BIOGRAPHIC NOTE 
 
13.  (U)  Aphisit was born on August 3, 1964, in Bangkok. 
His father, Dr. Atthasit Wetchachiwa, was Deputy Public 
Health Minister in the Anand Panyarachun Administration.  He 
completed junior and senior high school at Eaton College, 
England.  Aphisit continued his studies in England, receiving 
a bachelor's degree in Philosophy, Politics, and Economics 
(with First Class Honors) from Oxford University in 1986. 
Upon returning to Thailand he taught economics for two years 
at Chulachomklao Royal Military Academy, earning the rank of 
Army Sub-Lieutenant.  During this period he earned a LL.B. 
from Ramkhamhaeng University.  Aphisit then returned to 
England where he completed a master's degree in Economics at 
Oxford University, ranking first among 200 graduates. 
 
14.  (U)  Due to his extraordinary academic record Aphisit 
was admitted to the Economics Faculty of Thammasat University 
in 1990 without undergoing the normal written examination. 
During his two-year teaching stint at Thammasat he was well 
regarded by both colleagues and students.  During a one-year 
period after the 1991-coup d'etat Aphisit joined the 
well-known economist and TV commentator Dr. Choemsak Pinthong 
in running a political-oriented TV program "Mong Tang Mum" or 
"From Different Angles".  Aphisit was an active academic 
during this period, and publicly stood against the 
military-dominated regime. 
 
15.  (U)  Aphisit began his political career in March 1992 
when he won a close race over a Phalang Tham Party candidate 
to become the DP's only Bangkok MP.  His decision to enter 
politics came as no surprise to colleagues familiar with his 
political ambition.  He won successive elections in September 
1992, July 1995, and November 1996.  In the January 2001 and 
February 2005 elections, he was elected from the DP Party 
List. 
 
16.  (U)  Aphisit was Government Spokesman from 1992-1994, 
Deputy Secretary to the Prime Minister in 1995, Chairman of 
the House Standing Committee on Education during 1996-1997, 
and Minister attached to the PM's Office from 1997-2001 -- 
his first ministerial assignment.  At the DP's general 
meeting on April 20, 2003, he lost a bitter leadership 
contest to Banyat Bantadtan after former Prime Minister Chuan 
Leekpai stepped down as DP leader.  In that meeting, he was 
chosen as the first deputy party leader. 
 
17.  (U)  Following the TRT's landslide victory in the 
February 2005 general election, the DP General Assembly 
elected Aphisit as the new Party Leader with veteran southern 
MP Suthep Thuaksuban as the Party Secretary General. 
 
18.  (U)  Aphisit is married to Phimphen, the daughter of a 
political scientist of Chulalongkorn University, Phongphen 
Sakuntaphai, and a Bank of Thailand Assistant Governor, 
Praphaiphan.  They have 2 young children.  END BIOGRAPHIC NOTE 
BOYCE