US embassy cable - 02HANOI1199

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HANOI 001199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PHUM, SOCI, VM, DPOL 
SUBJECT:  ELECTIONEERING IN THE PROVINCES 
 
REF:  A.  HANOI  1058    B.  HANOI 997 
 
1.  (U) SUMMARY.  WELL-ORGANIZED CAMPAIGN RALLIES IN 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01199  01 OF 03  140856Z 
PROVINCES DURING THE WEEK OF MAY 6 OFFERED CANDIDATES AN 
OPPORTUNITY TO STATE THEIR VIEWS TO VOTERS AND HEAR LOCAL 
VIEWS AND DESIRES.   STABILITY, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, 
LOCAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, HEALTH AND EDUCATIONAL ISSUES, AND 
EVEN AGENT ORANGE ARE AMONG THIS YEAR'S CONCERNS.  ALL THOSE 
UNDER DETENTION, EVEN BEFORE HAVING HAD A COURT HEARING OR 
SENTENCE, ARE BARRED FROM VOTING, ALONG WITH ALL IN PRISON 
AND OTHERS WHO HAVE "LOST THEIR POLITICAL RIGHTS."  MENTALLY 
ILL ARE SIMILARLY BARRED.  VOTER TURN-OUT IS EXPECTED TO BE 
CLOSE TO 100 PCT, AIDED BY ACTIVE PERSUASION CAMPAIGNS BY 
LOCAL OFFICIALS.  THE NEW DECLARATIONS OF ASSETS SEEM TO BE 
PUBLICIZED OR NOT AT THE DISCRETION OF PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL 
OFFICIALS.  END SUMMARY. 
 
2.  (U)  POL/C AND FSN VISITED NAM DINH AND THAI BINH 
PROVINCES, SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, MAY 7-8 TO OBSERVE ONGOING 
NATIONAL ASSEMBLY CAMPAIGNS AND PREPARATIONS, AND TO MEET 
WITH PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS.  DESPITE THE 
SUPPORT OF THE MFA, SIMILAR REQUESTS BY POLOFFS FOR 
PROVINCIAL VISITS WERE DENIED BY PROVINCIAL OFFICIALS IN BAC 
KAN AND THAI NGUYEN PROVINCES, CLAIMING THEY WERE "TOO BUSY" 
WITH ELECTION PREPARATIONS. 
 
ON THE ELECTION TRAIL 
--------------------- 
 
3.  (U)  OUR VISIT COINCIDED WITH A WEEK OF STAGED CAMPAIGN 
RALLIES OFFERING A CHANCE FOR DIRECT CONTACT BETWEEN THE 
CANDIDATES AND AT LEAST SELECTED VOTERS.  NAM DINH ELECTION 
OFFICIALS SAID THAT THE PROVINCE'S 16 CANDIDATES (THREE OF 
THEM APPOINTED BY CENTRAL AUTHORITIES) WOULD SPEND MAY 6-10 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01199  01 OF 03  140856Z 
IN THE PROVINCE APPEARING AT LEAST ONCE AT A RALLY IN EACH 
OF THE FIVE CONSTITUENCIES (EACH OF WHICH COVERS TWO 
DISTRICTS).  A RALLY IN NAM DINH TOWN ON THE MORNING OF OUR 
VISIT REPORTEDLY ATTRACTED 200 VOTERS; THE QUESTION AND 
ANSWER PERIOD ELICITED INQUIRIES ON THE CANDIDATES' PROGRAMS 
ON PROMOTION OF LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, HEALTH CARE 
PROVISION FOR THE ELDERLY, AND EMPLOYMENT GENERATION.  EACH 
OF THE CANDIDATES HAD AN OPPORTUNITY TO PRESENT HIS "PROGRAM 
OF ACTION," WHICH WILL ALSO BE POSTED AT THE EACH VOTING 
STATION IN THAT CONSTITUENCY. 
 
4.  (U) ELECTION OFFICIALS AT NAM DINH'S CONSTITUENCY #2 
SAID THAT ABOUT 140 PEOPLE HAD ATTENDED A MAY 7 MORNING 
RALLY THERE.  THE PRIMARY FOCI OF QUESTIONING WERE ON PLANS 
TO INCREASE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND EXPAND EDUCATIONAL 
OPPORTUNITIES.  THE THREE HOUR SESSION DEVOTED ABOUT HALF OF 
ITS TIME TO Q&A; LOCAL OFFICIALS CLAIMED THAT VOTERS WERE 
"VERY INTERESTED" IN THE CAMPAIGN THIS YEAR, MUCH MORE SO 
THAN IN THE PREVIOUS NA ELECTIONS IN 1997. 
 
5.  (U)  THAI BINH CANDIDATES WERE HOLDING A PARALLEL SET OF 
RALLIES MAY 8-15.  ACCORDING TO THE PROVINCIAL PEOPLE'S 
COMMITTEE VICE CHAIRMAN, THE PRIMARY CONCERN OF VOTERS IS ON 
"STABILITY," WITHOUT WHICH NEITHER FAMILY NOR NATIONAL LIFE 
CAN PROGRESS.  ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT WAS A SECONDARY CONCERN, 
CLEARLY DEPENDENT ON STABILITY, HE STRESSED.  OTHER PRIMARY 
CONCERNS OF THE VOTERS IN THIS YEAR'S ELECTIONS ARE ON 
POVERTY REDUCTION, HEALTH CARE FOR CHILDREN, COMBATING 
NARCOTICS, AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION.  THE SECRETARY OF 
THE PROVINCIAL ELECTION COMMITTEE SEPARATELY HIGHLIGHTED 
"STABLE POLITICS" AS A MAIN CONCERN AMONG VOTERS, ALONG WITH 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  01199  01 OF 03  140856Z 
LOCAL ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, SECURITY, AND "CULTURE AND 
EDUCATION."  AN ELECTION OFFICIAL IN THAI BINH'S 
CONSTITUENCY #3 CLAIMED THAT VOTERS HAD EXPRESSED CONCERN 
ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF AGENT ORANGE AND WHAT MORE COULD BE 
DONE TO HELP ITS VICTIMS. 
 
6.  (U)  OFFICIALS IN BOTH PROVINCES ADMITTED IN RESPONSE TO 
QUESTIONS THAT MANY, IF NOT MOST, OF THOSE WHO ATTENDED THE 
CAMPAIGN RALLIES WERE INVITED AS REPRESENTATIVES OF THE 
VARIOUS MASS ORGANIZATIONS UNDER THE VIETNAM FATHERLAND 
FRONT (WOMEN, YOUTH, VETERANS, FARMERS, ETC.).  OFFICIALS 
UNIFORMLY STRESSED, HOWEVER, THAT ALL RALLIES WERE "OPEN TO 
THE PUBLIC" AND WERE PUBLICIZED IN THE LOCAL MEDIA AS WELL 
AS AT THE VARIOUS VOTING STATIONS.  THEY CLAIMED THAT ALL 
AGENCIES WERE "REQUIRED" TO RELEASE ANY VOTERS FROM WORK IN 
ORDER TO ATTEND THESE MEETINGS, BUT DID NOT EXPLAIN HOW THIS 
WOULD APPLY TO DAY LABORERS OR PRIVATE SECTOR EMPLOYEES. 
(NOTE:  HANOI ELECTION COMMITTEE OFFICIALS FAILED TO RESPOND 
EVEN TO OUR REQUESTS FOR INFORMATION ABOUT THE LOCATION AND 
TIMING OF CAMPAIGN RALLIES IN THE CAPITAL, IN PARTICULAR 
THOSE INVOLVING COMMUNIST PARTY GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC 
MANH -- A CANDIDATE IN CONSTITUENCY #1 --  MUCH LESS OUR 
REQUEST FOR PERMISSION TO OBSERVE AT LEAST ONE SUCH RALLY. 
END NOTE) 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ3989 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  01199  02 OF 03  140857Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    ED-01    FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00 
      HHS-01   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PER-00   PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------AE19E3  140857Z /38 
R 140846Z MAY 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6437 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 03 HANOI 001199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
7.  (U)  POLOFFS VIEWED THE MAY 7 PRIME TIME TELEVISION 
COVERAGE IN THAI BINH OFFERING RESUMES OF THE VARIOUS 
CANDIDATES AND A SHORT ADDRESS BY ONE CANDIDATE (APPARENTLY 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01199  02 OF 03  140857Z 
ONE PER EVENING).  CANDIDATES ARE ALSO FREE TO GO STUMPING 
ON THEIR OWN, BUT OFFICIALS ADMITTED THAT THIS WAS NOT A 
USUAL PRACTICE, AND NOTED THAT THERE WAS NO BUDGET FOR SUCH 
ACTIVITIES. 
 
WHO CAN AND CAN'T VOTE 
---------------------- 
 
8.  (U)  THE LOCAL AND PROVINCIAL ELECTION COMMITTEES, SET 
UP USING BUDGETS PROVIDED BY THE NA, HAVE THE 
RESPONSIBILITIES TO "PROPAGANDIZE" ABOUT ELECTION PROCEDURES 
AND ABOUT THE "RIGHT AND DUTY" OF ALL VOTERS TO VOTE, AS 
WELL AS TO PREPARE THE ELECTORAL ROLLS AND THE SPECIAL VOTER 
IDS THAT ALL VOTERS MUST TAKE TO THE VOTING STATION ON MAY 
19.  VOTERS MUST HAVE BEEN BORN ON OR BEFORE MAY 18, 1984. 
EACH CONSTITUENCY IS DIVIDED INTO VOTING UNITS OF BETWEEN 
300-1000 VOTERS, SOMETIMES REPRESENTING A SINGLE VILLAGE OR 
NEIGHBORHOOD.  OFFICIALS STRESSED THAT, IN THIS WAY, EACH 
POTENTIAL VOTER WAS IN FACT PERSONALLY KNOWN TO OFFICIALS, 
OBVIATING THE POSSIBILITY OF VOTER FRAUD. 
 
9.  (U)  ELECTION LAW PROHIBITS CERTAIN CATEGORIES OF PEOPLE 
FROM VOTING, MOST NOTABLY THE MENTALLY CHALLENGED.  ABOUT 
3,000 OF NAM DINH'S 1.16 MILLION VOTERS ARE BARRED ON THESE 
GROUNDS;  IN PRINCIPLE, LOCAL HEALTH WORKERS MUST PROVIDE A 
NEGATIVE CERTIFICATE TO THE LOCAL ELECTION COMMITTEE.  (667 
OF NAM DINH'S CONSTITUENCY #2'S 230,000 VOTERS ARE 
INELIGIBLE ON THESE GROUNDS.)  IN THAI BINH, THERE ARE MORE 
THAN 4,500 PEOPLE INELIGIBLE AMONG THE 1.2 MILLION VOTERS, 
PRIMARILY ON THIS GROUND.  (791 OUT OF 244,000 VOTERS IN 
THAI BINH'S CONSTITUENCY #3 WERE MENTALLY CHALLENGED AND NOT 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01199  02 OF 03  140857Z 
ON THE VOTER ROLLS.) 
 
10.  (U)  IN ADDITION, OFFICIALS CONFIRMED THAT ANYONE UNDER 
DETENTION -- EVEN BEFORE TRIAL OR SENTENCE -- AUTOMATICALLY 
LOSES HIS RIGHT TO VOTE.  ALL PRISONERS IN PROVINCIAL AND 
LOCAL PRISONS ARE EQUALLY BARRED FROM VOTING, AS ARE CERTAIN 
OTHER INDIVIDUALS WHO MAY HAVE LOST THEIR "POLITICAL RIGHTS" 
AS A RESULT OF AN EARLIER SENTENCE OR TRIAL.  PUBLIC 
SECURITY OFFICIALS ARE REQUIRED TO PROVIDE A LIST OF THESE 
INDIVIDUALS TO LOCAL ELECTION OFFICIALS.  NAM DINH 
PROVINCIAL OFFICIALS DID NOT PROVIDE OVERALL STATISTICS ON 
THESE POPULATIONS, BUT IN ITS CONSTITUENCY #2, THERE ARE 24 
PEOPLE UNDER TEMPORARY DETENTION AND 68 PRISONERS WHO WILL 
NOT BE VOTING THIS YEAR.  IN THAI BINH'S CONSTITUENCY #3, 
361 PEOPLE ARE SIMILARLY BARRED ON THESE GROUNDS, INCLUDING 
BOTH THOSE IN TEMPORARY DETENTION AND IN PRISON. 
 
11.  (U)  IN CONTRAST, SOLDIERS STATIONED IN THESE PROVINCES 
VOTE LOCALLY RATHER THAN IN THEIR HOME DISTRICTS, ACCORDING 
TO OFFICIALS.  THIS IS IN LINE WITH STANDARD PRACTICE 
(DESCRIBED IN REF B) OF VOTERS CASTING BALLOTS IN THE 
CONSTITUENCY WHERE THEY ARE PHYSICALLY PRESENT ON MAY 19, 
USUALLY USING A "LETTER OF INTRODUCTION" ISSUED BY THEIR 
HOME DISTRICT OFFICIALS, RATHER THAN BEING ABLE TO VOTE AT 
HOME VIA ABSENTEE BALLOT. 
 
12.  (U)  ILLITERATES -- WHO ARE NOT NUMEROUS GIVEN 
GENERALLY WIDESPREAD EDUCATION AT LEAST A PRIMARY AND JUNIOR 
HIGH SCHOOL LEVELS, OFFICIALS SAID -- MAY VOTE, WITH 
ASSISTANCE. 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 04        HANOI  01199  02 OF 03  140857Z 
VOTER TURN-OUT EXPECTED TO BE NEAR-UNIVERSAL 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
13.  (U)  OFFICIALS CONSISTENTLY PREDICTED TURN-OUT RATES OF 
WELL OVER 90 PCT OF ELIGIBLE VOTERS -- EXCLUDING THOSE 
CATEGORIES DESCRIBED ABOVE -- AT THIS YEAR'S ELECTION.  THAI 
BINH OFFICIALS SAID THAT THEIR 1997 TURN-OUT RATE FOR THE NA 
ELECTION HAD BEEN 97.8 PCT; THIS YEAR MIGHT BE HIGHER, THEY 
OPINED, SINCE THE MAY DATE WAS MORE CONVENIENT THAN THE 
PREVIOUS ELECTION DURING THE RAINY SEASON.  OFFICIALS AT 
LOCAL POLLING STATIONS DESCRIBED HOW THEY WOULD LITERALLY GO 
DOOR-TO-DOOR IF NECESSARY TO "CONVINCE" -- NOT "FORCE" -- 
VOTERS TO TURN UP.  IF NEED BE, I.E., FOR THE SICK AND 
ELDERLY, THEY WILL TAKE A VOTING BOX TO THE HOME OR 
HOSPITAL. 
 
14.  (U)  MANY LOCAL VOTERS WITH WHOM POL/C SPOKE PRIVATELY 
INDICATED THAT THEY DEFINITELY PLANNED ON VOTING, IF FOR NO 
OTHER REASON THAN THEY DID NOT WANT ANY "TROUBLE" WITH LOCAL 
AUTHORITIES, WHO WERE INTENT ON A HIGH TURN-OUT.  WHILE SUCH 
A PRACTICE IS PROHIBITED BY LAW, SOME INDICATED THAT THEY 
WOULD ASK A PARENT OR NEIGHBOR TO CAST BALLOTS ON THEIR 
BEHALF; OFFICIALS ROUTINELY TURN A BLIND EYE TO SUCH 
PRACTICES, THEY CLAIMED.  (NOTE:  A NATIONAL ASSEMBLY 
OFFICIAL SEPARATELY INFORMED POLOFFS THAT SUCH "PROXY" 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ3990 
 
PAGE 01        HANOI  01199  03 OF 03  140857Z 
ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  CIAE-00  DODE-00  DOEE-00 
      SRPP-00  DS-00    EB-00    ED-01    FBIE-00  UTED-00  VC-00 
      HHS-01   H-01     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   L-00 
      VCE-00   AC-01    NSAE-00  NSCE-00  OIC-02   OMB-01   OPIC-01 
      PA-00    PER-00   PM-00    PRS-00   ACE-00   P-00     SP-00 
      STR-00   TEST-00  TRSE-00  USIE-00  IIP-00   PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /011W 
                  ------------------AE19E9  140857Z /38 
R 140846Z MAY 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6438 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY PHNOM PENH 
AMEMBASSY VIENTIANE 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 03 OF 03 HANOI 001199 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/BCLTV 
 
VOTING HAD NEVER BEEN "DOCUMENTED," BUT IMPLIED THAT IT WAS 
A COMMON PRACTICE. END NOTE)  LITERALLY NONE OF THE LOCALS 
WITH WHOM POL/C SPOKE RANDOMLY COULD IDENTIFY THEIR LOCAL 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01199  03 OF 03  140857Z 
CANDIDATES OR HAD READ THEIR PROGRAMS, ALTHOUGH ONE 60ISH 
FARMER WHO WAS PRESENT AT THAI BINH'S CONSTITUENCY #3 DURING 
OUR SITE VISIT APPEARED WELL-INFORMED. 
 
NEW THIS YEAR 
------------- 
 
15.  (U)  ELECTION OFFICIALS VARIOUSLY STRESSED HOW THE 2001 
CHANGES IN THE ELECTION LAW HAD ADDED THE REQUIREMENT THAT 
ALL CANDIDATES BE ABLE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A MORE "DEMOCRATIC" 
SOCIETY, AND HOW THIS HAD WEIGHED HEAVILY AGAINST SOME 
POTENTIAL CANDIDATES IN THE LENGTHY DECISION-MAKING PROCESS 
(REF B).  SOME OFFICIALS EXPLAINED THE FACT THAT THERE WERE 
NOT MORE CANDIDATES TO DIFFICULTY IN MEETING THIS CRITERION 
(AS WELL AS THE OTHERS) AT NEIGHBORHOOD/WORK PLACE MEETINGS. 
 
16.  (U)  FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER, ALL CANDIDATES WERE 
REQUIRED TO FILL OUT A RUDIMENTARY ASSETS DECLARATION, 
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON PERSONAL POSSESSION OF FAMILY HOUSES, 
LAND, AND VEHICLES.  NAM DINH OFFICIALS SAID THAT THESE 
DECLARATIONS WERE PART OF THE CANDIDATES FILES HELD BY THE 
PROVINCIAL VFF; IF VOTERS WISHED TO EXAMINE THE DOCUMENTS, 
THEY WOULD HAVE TO GO TO THE PROVINCIAL VFF OFFICE.  THAI 
BINH OFFICIALS, HOWEVER, PLEDGED THAT THESE DECLARATIONS 
WOULD BE POSTED AT ALL VOTING STATIONS.  WHEN POLOFFS 
VISITED ITS CONSTITUENCY #3, THE DECLARATIONS WERE INDEED 
POSTED AND WE WERE ABLE TO VIEW COPIES.  NONE OF THE 
CANDIDATES REPORTED ANY ASSETS IN ANY BANK, AND THE THREE 
CANDIDATES' SOLE ASSETS APPEARED TO BE PRIVATE HOUSING 
(APARTMENT OR HOUSE). 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01199  03 OF 03  140857Z 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
17.  (U)  THIS YEAR'S ELECTION -- WHICH OFFICIALS ROUTINELY 
CHARACTERIZED AS PARTICULARLY IMPORTANT AS THE FIRST MAJOR 
VIETNAMESE ELECTIONS NOT ONLY OF THE DECADE BUT OF THE 
MILLENNIUM -- WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AGAIN PRODUCE EXTREMELY HIGH 
TURN-OUTS AND OFFER VOTERS A CHANCE TO ELIMINATE AT LEAST 
ONE (TWO IN LARGER CONSTITUENCIES) CANDIDATE AMONG THEIR 
DELEGATES.  DESPITE APPARENT VOTER APATHY, MOST VIETNAMESE 
FOLLOW THE PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGNS WELL ENOUGH TO UNDERSTAND 
THAT THEIR "RIGHT AND DUTY" TO VOTE MAKES IT INCUMBENT UPON 
THEM TO SHOW UP -- OR AT LEAST SEND SOMEONE IN THEIR PLACE - 
- TO CAST THEIR BALLOTS ON MAY 19. 
BURGHARDT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED