US embassy cable - 05OTTAWA860

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 OTTAWA 000860 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, SOCI, CA, Conservative Party, Stephen Harper 
SUBJECT:  CANADIAN CONSERVATIVES HIT A DOUBLE AT CONVENTION 
 
REF: QUEBEC 00035 
 
1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The Conservative Party of Canada held its 
biennial convention in Montreal March 17 to 19.  It was the 
party's first policy and leadership review convention since 
the merger of the Progressive Conservative and Canadian 
Alliance parties in December 2003.  On issues such as 
abortion and same-sex marriage, the party portrayed a 
reasonable balance between the staunch social conservative 
wing that wants to stand firm on principle and let the 
country move in its direction, and the more progressive 
moderates who believe a centrist position is the party's 
only hope of ever governing.  The Conservatives also managed 
a high-stakes issue that threatened to split the party 
during the constitutional session, and leader Stephen Harper 
passed his first leadership review with 84 percent approval. 
The convention will likely provide a slight bounce in the 
polls, but not the kind of breakthrough in urban Ontario and 
Quebec that the Tories needs to win an election.  The 
Conservatives have now established a strong base camp, but 
have a good deal of climbing ahead if they are to reach the 
summit.  END SUMMARY. 
 
At Last, a Policy Book to Call Our Own 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Having never had a policy convention, the 
Conservatives were at a disadvantage during the 2004 
election.  Their lack of a declared policy agenda allowed 
the Liberals to contend that the Conservatives were masking 
a "hidden agenda," particularly on issues such as same-sex 
marriage and abortion.  This convention was the first 
opportunity the Conservatives have had to clearly spell out 
the party's positions, while showing a united front between 
the merged factions.  By holding the convention in Montreal 
and having French-speakers prominent, they also hoped to 
make inroads in Quebec, and by having younger conservatives 
at the podium, hoped to make gains in urban Ontario. 
 
3. (SBU) The convention was held at the massive convention 
center (Palais de Congres) with a large Canadian flag as the 
wall centrepiece, and was a mix of caucuses, plenary 
decision meetings, and well-funded social gatherings.  The 
2,900 delegates came in scruffy western attire, urban chic, 
and bright yellow Harper t-shirts.  Poloff, PolFSN, and 
Montreal CG attended and met with dozens of delegates. 
Conservative Party leader Stephen Harper made the keynote 
address on March 18, and former Progressive Conservative 
leader Brian Mulroney was prominently featured in the video 
presentation that introduced the leader.  Harper listed a 
litany of "scandalous" conduct on the part of the governing 
Liberals, from the ad-sponsorship scandal, the gun registry, 
"strippergate" and others.  Harper turned the refrain of 
Prime Minister Martin's convention speech, "Promises Made, 
Promises Kept" to a lengthy review of "Promises Made, 
Promises Broken."  Harper dismissed the Bloc Quebecois as a 
political force, saying they were incapable of instituting 
change, even if the stayed around for another 100 years. 
 
4. (SBU) Media predictions that issues such as same-sex 
marriage and abortion would never make the floor in a 
tightly-scripted show were wrong - they did and were 
vigorously debated, in what in the end was a mix of center 
and rightist positions that accurately reflects the party's 
dilemma of how far to stray from its roots to attract new 
voters.  The willingness to compromise on social values 
comes from the sense that the party is finally moving in the 
direction of actually being able to win an election, and not 
just criticizing the governing Liberals.  The party wants to 
keep this momentum without losing its soul in the process. 
It causes a good deal of creative tension that was evident 
on the floor. 
 
5. (SBU) One key measure, a pledge that the party would not 
introduce new anti-abortion legislation, was passed by a 
very close margin, and its success was greeted with loud 
applause.  On same-sex marriage, however, appeals from 
moderate progressives such as Belinda Stronach that too 
strong a position would alienate the party from mainstream 
Canada were dismissed.  The party voted 75-25 in favor of a 
measure that affirmed the party's position that marriage is 
between one man and one woman.  The party also abandoned 
populist resolutions for recall rules for Members of 
Parliament, fixed-date elections and referendums on issues 
of national importance, all pillars of the earlier Canadian 
Alliance party.  Other noteworthy resolutions called to 
expand the Canadian Forces, cut taxes, repeal the federal 
gun registry, address the fiscal imbalance, and make the 
appointment of senior officials (Supreme Court, Auditor 
General, Ethics Commissioner, etc.) an accountable process. 
Though it was not a stand-alone policy resolution, Stephen 
Harper also referred to missile defense in his keynote 
address, stating that while the Conservatives would not sign 
up for an agreement they have not seen, they would return to 
the table on missile defense and other issues with the 
United States. 
 
Constitutional Conflict Overblown 
--------------------------------- 
 
6. (SBU) One of the most contentious issues faced by the 
party was a constitutional resolution forwarded by Ontario 
MP Scott Reid that would have tied the delegate selection 
process to the number of party members in a riding, allowing 
ridings with more party members (predominantly in the former 
Canadian Alliance West) to send more delegates.  Deputy 
leader Peter MacKay was livid over the idea, which he 
maintained violated a founding principle of the merger of 
the Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservatives that all 
ridings would be treated equally.  He was concerned that the 
move would alienate regions where the party was weak and 
thus destroy any potential these ridings had to develop 
through active participation.  The issue was the highlight 
of CBC's afternoon radio broadcast and the print media, and 
it trumped Harper's keynote speech, even though all the 
delegates we talked to insisted that the resolution was a 
non-issue and bound to fail, which it did handily. The 
coverage resulted in Conservative complaints of media bias. 
 
Don't Trust Anybody Under 30 
---------------------------- 
 
7. (SBU) The Conservatives were also narrowly split on 
whether to create a youth wing along the lines of the former 
Progressive Conservative Youth, or the current Young 
Liberals of Canada.  The confused process called for 
delegates to vote for one of three options, and the status 
quo (i.e. no youth wing) was selected.  Status quo advocates 
argued that if young people are interested, they will join 
the party and participate as regular members, and not be 
shunted off to a youth ghetto.  Youth wing advocates argued 
that the party needs to reach out to youth and provide a 
forum where they can better develop their issues and have 
their input valued.  It does not appear that either side of 
the debate is familiar with the Young Liberals of Canada, 
who have a deep policy agenda, great enthusiasm and energy, 
and demonstrated the highest level of organization of all 
commissions at the recent Liberal Party Convention.  Absent 
a youth wing, the Conservative Party will minimal presence 
on Canada's university campuses, and the party will not have 
access to the same ready-made, energetic and organized 
volunteers as the Liberals. 
 
Stephen Harper at the Helm 
-------------------------- 
 
8. (SBU) A key event was the referendum on Stephen Harper's 
leadership.  A small lobby handing out anti-Harper buttons 
and pamphlets early in the convention appeared to have 
little impact as Harper garnered an 84 percent approval 
rate.  One anti-Harper delegate tried to convince a group of 
colleagues on their way to vote after Harper's Friday night 
speech, but her argument amounted to "trust me, I know," 
something the delegates found amusing.  In reality there was 
no real alternative for a party trying to show unity and 
strength to sticking up for Harper.  To his credit, he has 
done a fine job of strengthening the party and bringing the 
various factions together.  Many party members at the 
Convention described his address Friday night as his best 
performance to date, and Montreal CG, Poloff and PolFSN in 
attendance saw a Harper who was secure and upbeat. In 
English and French, both the delivery and the message were 
fully on cue. 
 
9. (SBU) As it did at the Liberal convention, the media felt 
compelled to throw out names of possible Harper successors, 
but had a more difficult time doing so as there was no 
campaign, even behind the scenes, to develop an alternative 
to Harper's leadership.  Members of Parliament Peter MacKay 
and Belinda Stronach were mentioned, as was Premier of New 
Brunswick, Bernard Lord.  The latter would appear to be the 
most interesting.  Two delegates told Poloff that as much as 
they like Harper personally, until the party picks an 
Easterner as leader, the center of gravity will remain stuck 
in the West.  This would keep the party unable to penetrate 
essential ridings in voter-rich Ontario and Quebec. 
Stronach is also someone to watch; her three interventions 
on the floor (pro same-sex marriage, pro-US trade, and pro- 
youth wing) were clearly meant to establish her as the 
progressive, centrist alternative to the Western cul-de-sac, 
even though in the House of Commons she appears to play 
second fiddle to Alberta's Rona Ambrose. 
 
Quebec - The "Show Me" Province 
------------------------------- 
 
10. (SBU) According the Conservative MPs Jason Kenny and Jay 
Hill, the party selected Montreal as the location for its 
convention to garner attention in Quebec, as well as, 
indirectly, in southern, urban Ontario.  Several young 
Conservative delegates agreed that prior to the convention 
there was simply no coverage of the party in Quebec media. 
The Montreal venue would finally bring the party back into 
the provincial line-of-sight.  They also pointed out that it 
was clear from his speech that Harper's ability in French is 
rapidly improving.  Reftel provides views from Quebec City 
on how effective the party's outreach in the Province may 
have been. 
 
11. (SBU) COMMENT:  Only time, and public opinion polls, 
will tell if the Conservatives successfully managed the 
opportunity to define their polices and address the negative 
impressions the Liberals have thus far so successfully 
exploited.  They may have placed themselves on the radar in 
Quebec, but appear to lack the potential for a breakthrough 
they need to win an election.  As was the case with the 
Liberals, post-convention rhetoric is of high energy levels 
and confidence to face the polls.  It will take a federal 
election campaign (now rumored for next spring), however, to 
demonstrate whether they can take the foundation they built 
at the convention and use it to build a credible alternative 
to the Liberals.  END COMMENT.