US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2185

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PHUM, ENRG, PTER, IN, BM, BD, India-Burma 
SUBJECT: MEA DEFENDS RECORD ON BURMA AHEAD OF FM SINGH TRIP 
 
REF: A. STATE 42847 
     B. 03 NEW DELHI 6983 
     C. NEW DELHI 1426 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Geoffrey Pyatt, for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Joint Secretary (SE Asia I) Mitra Vashishta 
defended India's policies in Burma in a March 17 meeting with 
PolCouns and Poloff, suggesting that progress on democratic 
reforms was dependent on engagement with the Burmese body 
politic, and warning that the USG focus on Aung San Suu Kyi 
(ASSK) could backfire.  Foreign Minister Natwar Singh leaves 
for a four-day visit to Burma on March 24, but MEA contacts 
tell us not to expect significant new developments, despite 
press reports speculating about the reopening of the 
"Stilwell Road."  Vashishta did not believe Bangladesh would 
cooperate on a potential gas pipeline from Burma to India, 
suggesting that the project will remain hypothetical.  End 
Summary. 
 
GOI and USG Policies 
-------------------- 
 
2.  (C) In a wide-ranging discussion with PolCouns and Poloff 
about GOI and USG policies toward Burma, outgoing Joint 
Secretary Vashishta defended Indian engagement with and plans 
 
SIPDIS 
for Burma.  Pressed on the apparent contradiction between 
India's new doctrine of active support for democracy in the 
region (Ref C) and its policy toward Rangoon, the Joint 
Secretary averred that more time was needed for GOI policies 
 
SIPDIS 
to bear fruit.  Drawing a parallel to the current Indian 
pressure on Nepal, she suggested that the GOI was waiting for 
a time when its influence across Burmese society would 
increase to the point where the regime would listen to Indian 
demands for democracy. 
 
3.  (C) Responding to the USG push for a resolution on Burma 
in the Commission on Human Rights (UNCHR) (Ref A), Vashishta 
doubted the effectiveness of any such action.  There was not 
enough international involvement in Burma for outside 
pressure to have an effect, she argued, adding that the US 
and European policy of isolation will not work because 
China's support allows Burma to get away with ignoring 
international pressure. 
 
4.  (C) The Joint Secretary warned that the US and European 
preoccupation with imprisoned leader ASSK could be 
counterproductive.  While ASSK's status was important, it was 
not the only issue.  Pondering the "cost of getting her out," 
she cautioned that international pressure focused only on 
freedom for ASSK might let the junta "get away with more" in 
return for freeing the detained democracy activist. 
Vashishta repeated the GOI's view that ASSK is less relevant 
to democracy promotion than increased engagement with the 
society (Ref B). 
 
No Blank Check 
-------------- 
 
5.  (C) Vashishta acknowledged that India's current policy 
could be construed as giving a blank check to the junta, but 
replied that the GOI was following the best policy for 
dealing with Than Shwe.  She acknowledged that the GOI needed 
to do a much better job of describing publicly its support 
for democratic forces in Burma, in order to refute 
perceptions of a morally vacant approach.  The regime would 
not respond to isolation or sanctions, she argued, because 
that would cause it to lose face.  While India was trying to 
engage Burma to gain influence with the junta, US policy had 
nothing positive to offer the regime.  She added that India's 
previous USG-approved disdain for the regime in Rangoon had 
let China gain influence in Burma at India's expense. 
 
Foreign Minister to Visit Rangoon 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C) Foreign Minister Singh will visit Rangoon March 
24-27, another stop on his tour of India's neighbors in his 
first year in office.  MEA Undersecretary (South-East Asia) 
Pooja Kapoor told Poloff that the FM is expected to meet with 
Than as well as the Burmese Prime Minister and Foreign 
Minister, where he will raise India's concern for democracy, 
political reforms, and treatment of the political opposition. 
 Although noted strategic commentator C Raja Mohan has 
speculated that the GOI is discussing reopening the "Stilwell 
Road" linking India, China and Burma, Kapoor stated that no 
new announcements would come out of the meetings. 
 
7.  (C) While democracy may be on the agenda, the GOI is more 
concerned with insurgent groups operating across the border 
between Burma and Manipur state in India, MG (ret) Ashok 
Mehta, a noted Burma expert, told Poloff.  Mehta suggested 
that Natwar's priorities will be encouraging Burmese military 
action against insurgents, and reiterating GOI proposals made 
during Than's October 2004 New Delhi visit for defense 
cooperation and equipment sales.  Although India has not 
conducted joint military operations with Burma, Mehta 
asserted that two Indian Army brigades are currently 
operating against insurgents in Manipur on the Burmese 
border, a line we have also heard from other security 
contacts. 
 
Gas Pipeline Unlikely 
--------------------- 
 
8.  (C) Vashishta predicted that the proposal for a gas 
pipeline from Burma to India via Bangladesh would collapse 
because of obstacles placed by Dhaka, lamenting the 
"obstructionist" attitude and internal disputes between 
Bangladeshi leaders.  There was no will among the politicians 
in Bangladesh to make it work, she complained, and Burma and 
India had no influence over them. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
9.  (C) The Foreign Minister's visit to Rangoon is a routine 
stop on his calendar, but is incongruous coming during the 
meeting of the UNCHR and following Foreign Secretary Saran's 
February 14 speech in which he stated that India would always 
stand with democratic elements in neighboring countries (Ref 
C).  The GOI shows no signs of fading in its belief that 
further engagement across the society, rather than isolation, 
is the best way to induce democratic reform in Burma. 
Conveniently, GOI engagement with the junta also furthers 
India's own strategic interests in cracking down on 
insurgents in Manipur, exploring new options for energy 
supplies, and countering the rise of Chinese influence in 
India's periphery. 
MULFORD