US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1229

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001229 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/22/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, PREL, TW 
SUBJECT: MARCH 19 RALLY ATTACKS CHEN, SOONG, AND MA 
 
REF: TAIPEI 01187 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason(s): 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  The KMT's March 19 rally was more 
significant for the drama behind the scenes than what 
unfolded on stage.  Although originally organized to protest 
the DPP government's handling of last year's election eve 
shooting of President Chen and VP Lu, the rally deteriorated 
into a pair of mudslinging matches between People First Party 
(PFP) Chairman James Soong and the KMT on one hand, and 
between Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng and 
Taipei Mayor Ma Ying-jeou on the other hand.  KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan used the rally to call for a second commission to 
investigate the March 19, 2004 shooting and blamed the DPP 
government's pro-independence activities for increasing 
cross-Strait tensions and for inciting Beijing to enact the 
Anti-Secession Law.  Although the KMT announced it would 
mobilize 100,000 participants, Taiwan police estimated that 
only around 20,000 attended the parade and rally.  End 
Summary. 
 
Self-Inflicted Wounds 
--------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) The KMT had originally organized the March 19 parade 
and rally to protest the DPP government's investigation of 
last year's election eve shooting of President Chen Shui-bian 
and VP Annette Lu in Tainan.  The rally itself, however, was 
overshadowed by the media focus on the PRC Anti-Secession Law 
and on intra-Pan-Blue rivalries.  Moreover, the media image 
of the rally was of a pair of mudslinging matches between 
People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong and the KMT on 
one hand, and between Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang 
Jin-pyng and Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou on the other hand. 
 
Conspicuous Absence and Presence 
--------------------------------- 
 
3. (C) Many of the participants interviewed by the media 
during the March 19 rally focused their wrath more on James 
Soong's absence from the protest than Chen Shui-bian's 
presence in the Presidential Office.  Although Soong decided 
to stay away from the March 19 rally, a sizable number of PFP 
legislators marched with the demonstrators.  PFP Policy Chief 
and Legislator Vincent Chang (Hsien-yao) both publicly and 
privately dismissed media reports that Soong had instructed 
PFP members to avoid the rally.  Chang told AIT that there 
were no such orders and that PFP members were free to attend 
the rally as individuals.  At least ten PFP legislators, 
including Chou Hsi-wei, Lee Yong-ping, Sun Ta-chien, Lee 
Ching-hua, and Chiu Yi, were present at the march and rally. 
(Comment:  This would fit Soong's SOP.  He usually will not 
get involved in a fight he cannot win.  In this case, it was 
clear that some PFP members would march regardless of what 
Soong said.  Given that, Soong most likely refrained from 
issuing futile instructions.  End Comment) 
 
4. (SBU) While Lien Chan spoke of unity within the Pan-Blue 
camp, New Party Chairman Yok Mu-ming told the crowd to 
"forget about the people who have left and support those who 
are united."  Several leading PFP politicians publicly 
criticized their Chairman for failing to show.  During the 
rally, an elderly member of the Concentric Patriotism 
Association of the Republic of China suddenly ran to the 
front of the crowd and pulled out a knife in an apparent 
attempt to commit ritual suicide by gutting himself.  After 
he was forcibly halted, the protester told reporters that he 
wanted to express his discontent with Soong for betraying the 
Pan-Blue alliance by his joint statement with Chen. 
 
Turning the Guns on Ma 
---------------------- 
 
5. (C) In the lead-up to March 19, Soong attempted to deflect 
criticism by blaming Ma for the Pan-Blue defeat in the 2004 
presidential race.  Soong told the media that it was Ma who 
advised canceling all campaign rallies on the eve of the 
election after the shooting took place.  At the March 19 
rally, Wang Jin-pyng repeated Soong's insinuations against Ma 
by stating that it was a mistake for the KMT to have canceled 
the rallies that were scheduled to take place on the night of 
the shooting.  Wang said that the rallies would have boosted 
the morale of the Pan-Blue supporters.  "By canceling the 
rallies," he continued, "the media focused instead on the 
shooting, distracted the public, and consequently, Lien and 
Soong lost the election."  PFP Legislator Hwang Yih-jiau told 
AIT that Soong blames Ma for more than just canceling the 
election eve rallies.  Hwang said that many Pan-Blue insiders 
now believe that Ma deliberately sabotaged the entire 
Lien-Soong presidential campaign effort to advance his own 
presidential ambitions. 
 
Meanwhile, Back at the Rally 
---------------------------- 
 
6. (C) The March 19 rally itself was far smaller than 
organizers had promised.  KMT Organizational Development 
Chairman Liao Fung-te had told AIT that the party planned to 
mobilize 50,000 Pan-Blue supporters.  In an effort to 
increase turnout, the KMT later announced it expected 100,000 
to attend.  Initially, broadcast media reported a turnout of 
300,000 and Wang Jin-pyng claimed to AIT a turnout of 
150,000.  Taiwan police, however, estimated the number of 
participants at 20,000.  KMT/New Party Legislator Joanna Lei 
(Chien) told AIT that the rally was largely a New Party 
effort.  She said that weeks prior to March 19 she was 
shocked to learn that the KMT headquarters had nothing 
planned.  Lei said that she and her New Party colleagues 
provided behind-the-scene guidance and support, and asked the 
KMT to provide funding and resources.  She also remarked that 
New Party members merely wanted to see action and results, 
and that in the future they will gladly provide backstage 
support but allow the KMT organization to take the credit. 
 
7. (SBU) In his speech to the crowd in what was billed as the 
"March 19 Democracy, Peace, and Truth" rally, KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan pledged that "the search for truth will not stop 
until the truth is found," and urged opposition lawmakers to 
rush through legislation to create a second March 19 Truth 
Investigation Committee.  Lien also blamed the DPP's 
pro-independence activities for the worsening of cross-Strait 
relations, saying that "as long as we do not declare Taiwan 
independence, China will not attack Taiwan."  Wang Jin-pyng 
and Ma Ying-jeou echoed Lien's call for a second 
investigation committee and for peaceful cross-Strait 
relations.  Criticizing President Chen for threatening 
cross-Strait peace, Ma claimed that China passed the 
Anti-Secession Law because of the DPP government's plans to 
deviate from the Republic of China Constitution and Chen's 
failure to abide by his "four noes" pledge. 
 
8. (SBU) Speaking in Tainan on the same day, President Chen 
offered to discuss the creation of a "constitutionally 
consistent" March 19 investigation commission, and suggested 
that Lien Chan and James Soong co-chair the commission. 
 
Comment: Stage Directions 
------------------------- 
 
9. (C)  The KMT's March 19 rally was more significant for the 
political backbiting that took place on its margins than what 
unfolded on stage.  Just as the KMT had allowed its coalition 
partner PFP to drive policy in the heyday of their alliance, 
the KMT now permits the New Party faction (four legislators 
and a handful of party members) to act as the engine of the 
rump Pan-Blue alliance.  Playing to the crowd, Ma and Wang 
each stood by Lien's side and reiterated Lien's message in an 
attempt to cast himself as his preferred heir apparent.  The 
absence of Soong and the presence of a significant number of 
his PFP colleagues at the rally suggest that there may be 
more "Pan-Blue" unity than PFP unity (Septel). 
PAAL