US embassy cable - 02HANOI1181

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 HANOI 001181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: PREL, ETRD, PHUM, VM, KN, KS, DPRK 
SUBJECT:  GVN PRESIDENTIAL VISIT TO NORTH KOREA 
 
REF:  A.  01 HANOI 2967   B.  HANOI 932 
 
1.  (SBU)  SUMMARY.  PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG'S VISIT TO 
NORTH KOREA (DPRK) PROVIDED ANOTHER AT LEAST COSMETIC 
INDICATOR OF THE CONTINUING THAW IN BILATERAL RELATIONS. 
WHILE THE TWO COUNTRIES SIGNED A NUMBER OF AGREEMENTS, MOST 
APPEAR TO HAVE LITTLE PRACTICAL APPLICATION.  THE 
PROBABILITY OF ANY MAJOR GVN MEDIATION ROLE BETWEEN THE TWO 
KOREAS APPEARS LOW.  THE SUBJECT OF NORTH KOREAN DEFECTORS 
ARRIVING IN VIETNAM VIA CHINA REPORTEDLY WAS NOT RAISED WITH 
PRESIDENT LUONG.  CONDITIONS AROUND PYONGYANG APPEARED TO 
SOME IN THE DELEGATION AS MARGINALLY BETTER THAN TWO YEARS 
AGO.   END SUMMARY. 
 
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SEVERAL AGREEMENTS, BUT WHAT DO THEY MEAN? 
----------------------------------------- 
 
2.  (U)  VIETNAM'S PRESIDENT TRAN DUC LUONG VISITED THE DPRK 
MAY 2-5, WHERE HE MET WITH NATIONAL DEFENSE COMMISSION 
CHAIRMAN KIM JONG-IL AND THE PRESIDENT OF THE SUPREME 
PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY PRESIDIUM KIM YONG-NAM.  GVN FOREIGN 
MINISTER NGUYEN DY NIEN, DIRECTOR OF THE OFFICE OF THE 
PRESIDENT NGUYEN CANH DINH, AND JUSTICE MINISTER NGUYEN DINH 
LOC TOOK PART IN THE DELEGATION, ALONG WITH MINISTER OF 
AGRICULTURE AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT LE HUY NGO, CONSTRUCTION 
MINISTER NGUYEN MANH KIEM, AND TRANSPORT MINISTER LE NGOC 
HOAN.  SENIOR DPRK COUNTERPARTS INCLUDED FOREIGN MINISTER 
PAEK NAM-SUN AND TRADE MINISTER YI KWANG-KUN. 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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3.  (U)  LUONG'S VISIT FOLLOWED THE OCTOBER 15-19, 2001 
GVN/DPRK JOINT ECONOMIC, SCIENTIFIC, AND TECHNOLOGY 
COMMITTEE MEETING IN PYONGYANG (REF A), THE FIRST SINCE 
VIETNAM OPENED BILATERAL RELATIONS WITH SOUTH KOREA IN 1992, 
AS WELL AS A SERIES OF HIGH LEVEL VISITS IN 2000 AND 2001. 
THE INCREASED CONTACTS ARE IN LINE WITH VIETNAM'S GENERAL 
POLICY OVER THE PAST DECADE TO "BE FRIENDS WITH EVERYONE." 
 
4.  (U)  THE TWO SIDES SIGNED A NUMBER OF AGREEMENTS DURING 
THE VIST, INCLUDING: 
 
--A TREATY ON LEGAL COOPERATION IN CIVIL AND CRIMINAL CASES 
BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES; 
 
--AN AGREEMENT ON THE PREVENTION OF DOUBLE TAXATION AND 
INCOME TAX EVASION; 
 
--AN AGREEMENT ON MARITIME TRANSPORTATION; AND, 
 
--AN AGREEMENT FOR IMPROVING BILATERAL TRADE, INCLUDING 
BARTER TRADE. 
 
5.  (SBU)  LE VAN CU, MFA DEPUTY DIRECTOR FOR THE ASIA I 
DEPARTMENT (WHO ACCOMPANIED PRESIDENT LUONG TO THE DPRK), 
TOLD POLOFF ON MAY 10 THAT THE AGREEMENTS SIGNED DURING THE 
"LANDMARK" VISIT REFLECTED THE "STRONG AND TRADITIONAL" 
BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP.  CU ADMITTED THAT THE ECONOMIC 
AGREEMENTS MIGHT NOT HAVE "MUCH VALUE NOW, BUT WILL SERVE AS 
A PATH TO FUTURE COOPERATION."  WHEN PRESSED, CU WAS UNABLE 
TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC BILATERAL TRADE FIGURES, BUT ADMITTED 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
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TWO-WAY TRADE IS "NEGLIGIBLE."  CU NOTED THAT VIETNAM HAD 
ALSO DONATED 5,000 TONS OF RICE TO NORTH KOREA, A "SMALL, 
SYMBOLIC" AMOUNT EQUIVALENT TO WHAT VIETNAM HAD DONATED LAST 
YEAR.  CU SAID VIETNAM WOULD LIKE TO DONATE MORE, BUT "WE 
ARE ALSO A POOR COUNTRY."  HE ADMITTED THE DPRK STILL OWES 
USD 10 MILLION TO VIETNAM FOR A 1996 RICE "SALE."  CU SAID 
HE DID NOT KNOW WHEN THE DPRK WOULD REPAY THIS DEBT, DUE TO 
ITS "DESTITUTE" ECONOMIC SITUATION.  HOWEVER, CU CLAIMED 
THAT THE VIETNAMESE PEOPLE "UNDERSTOOD THE HARD SITUATION IN 
THE DPRK" AND ARE "FULLY SYMPATHETIC." 
 
6.  (SBU) ACCORDING TO ONE ROK EMBOFF, THE ECONOMIC 
AGREEMENTS ARE "QUITE MEANINGLESS," SINCE THE DPRK HAS 
"NOTHING TO OFFER VIETNAM."  THE EMBOFF ALSO SAID THE IDEA 
OF "BARTER TRADE" IS "UNREALISTIC" FOR THE SAME REASON.  HE 
DISCOUNTED  REPORTS OF SOME CEMENT AND/OR COAL COMING INTO 
VIETNAM FROM THE DPRK.   HE STRESSED THAT LUONG'S VISIT, OR 
THE THAWING TREND IN GVN/DPRK RELATIONS IN GENERAL, WOULD 
NOT HAVE ANY NEGATIVE IMPACT ON VIETNAM'S "STRONG" 
RELATIONSHIP WITH SOUTH KOREA. 
 
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SUBSTANTIVE GVN MEDIATION ROLE UNLIKELY 
--------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (SBU)  AS NOTED IN REF B, THE GVN HAD INDICATED NEW 
WILLINGNESS TO ACT AS A NORTH-SOUTH MEDIATOR DURING THE ROK 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
                           UNCLASSIFIED     PTQ0121 
 
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ACTION EAP-00 
 
INFO  LOG-00   NP-00    AID-00   AMAD-00  ACQ-00   CA-01    CEA-01 
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      TEST-00  TRSE-00  T-00     USIE-00  R-00     PMB-00   DSCC-00 
      PRM-00   DRL-02   G-00     NFAT-00  SAS-00     /016W 
                  ------------------AD7BCB  130743Z /38 
R 130733Z MAY 02 
FM AMEMBASSY HANOI 
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6424 
INFO AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 
AMEMBASSY SEOUL 
AMEMBASSY BEIJING 
AMEMBASSY TOKYO 
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA// 
SECDEF WASHDC//ISA/ABLAGG// 
 
UNCLAS SECTION 02 OF 02 HANOI 001181 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 02        HANOI  01181  02 OF 02  130742Z 
 
PRESIDENT'S RECENT VISIT; PRESS REPORTS HAD ALSO SPECULATED 
ON SUCH A POTENTIAL ROLE FOR VIETNAM.  THE ROK EMBOFF AND CU 
SEPARATELY DOWNPLAYED THIS LIKELIHOOD, HOWEVER.    ACCORDING 
TO THE EMBOFF, VIETNAM, AS A SOCIALIST COUNTRY, IS "PROBABLY 
NOT SUITABLE" TO BECOME SERIOUSLY INVOLVED IN SUCH AN 
EFFORT, OTHER THAN TO "PASS MESSAGES" BETWEEN THE TWO SIDES. 
THE MFA'S CU SAID THAT HE VIEWED AN ACTIVE MEDIATION ROLE AS 
"IMPROBABLE."  HOWEVER, HE NOTED THAT PRESIDENT LUONG HAD 
INDEED PASSED A MESSAGE TO HIS HOSTS FROM SOUTH KOREA'S 
LEADERSHIP CONCERNING THE ROK'S DESIRE FOR "PEACEFUL 
NEGOTIATIONS" ON THE ISSUE OF KOREAN REUNIFICATION, A GOAL 
THAT VIETNAM "FULLY SUPPORTS," CU EMPHASIZED. 
 
----------------------- 
CONCERN OVER DEFECTORS? 
----------------------- 
 
8.  (SBU)  PRESS REPORTS HAVE SUGGESTED THE LEGAL 
COOPERATION AGREEMENT MAY HAVE BEEN A REACTION TO AN 
INCREASING NUMBER OF DPRK DEFECTORS COMING THROUGH THE PRC 
ATTEMPTING TO USE VIETNAM AS A TRANSIT POINT TO SOUTH KOREA. 
THE ROK EMBOFF ACKNOWLEDGED THIS INCREASE IS "PROBABLY A 
CONCERN TO THE DPRK," ALTHOUGH HE WAS UNABLE TO PROVIDE 
SPECIFIC NUMBERS.  THE MFA'S CU CLAIMED, HOWEVER, THAT THE 
ISSUE OF POTENTIAL NORTH KOREAN DEFECTORS ENTERING VIETNAM 
DID NOT COME UP DURING LUONG'S VISIT AND THAT THE GVN DID 
NOT CONSIDER THIS ISSUE IMPORTANT. 
 
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UPCOMING VISITS 
                       UNCLASSIFIED 
 
PAGE 03        HANOI  01181  02 OF 02  130742Z 
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9.  (U)  THE MFA'S CU SAID PRESIDENT LUONG HAD INVITED KIM 
JONG IL TO VISIT VIETNAM, WHILE KIM INVITED COMMUNIST PARTY 
OF VIETNAM GENERAL SECRETARY NONG DUC MANH TO VISIT THE 
DPRK.  CU SAID THE RESPECTIVE INVITATIONS WERE ACCEPTED 
"HAPPILY," ALTHOUGH NO DATES HAVE BEEN DETERMINED FOR EITHER 
VISIT. 
 
---------------------------- 
CONDITIONS MARGINALLY BETTER? 
----------------------------- 
 
10.  (SBU)  CU, WHO LIVED IN THE DPRK FOR 12 YEARS AND HAS 
MADE NUMEROUS TRIPS THERE THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS, SAID 
CONDITIONS APPEARED "A LITTLE BETTER" SINCE 2001.  THERE 
WERE A FEW MORE LIGHTS BURNING AT NIGHT, COMPARED TO A VISIT 
HE MADE IN 2000 WHEN THE STREETS WERE NEARLY DARK AFTER THE 
SUN SET.  WHILE HE DID NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO WALK AROUND, HE 
NOTICED A FEW VERY SMALL MARKETS, APPARENTLY NEW.  BURGHARDT 
 
                       UNCLASSIFIED