US embassy cable - 05WELLINGTON237

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WELLINGTON 000237 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/ANP 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, NZ 
SUBJECT: NEW ZEALAND LABOUR PARTY STAKES ITS CLAIM FOR 2005 
ELECTIONS; RUFFLES SOME FEATHERS 
 
REF: A. WELLINGTON 70 
     B. WELLINGTON 58 
 
Classified By: Political and Economic Counselor Katherine B. Hadda, 
For Reasons 1.4(B,D) 
 
1. (C) Summary. New Zealand's governing Labour party released 
its list of Members of Parliament, which outlines the rank by 
which MPs will enter Parliament after the 2005 election.  The 
list reveals Labour's confidence in the face of an upcoming 
election, with almost all sitting MPs receiving high 
rankings.  Shifts in ranking versus the 2002 list, however, 
reflect the concerns of Maori MPs, who received higher ranks 
after expressing concern over the Maori Party challenge in 
their constituencies.  MP George Hawkins, the embattled 
Police Commissioner, pulled out of the List immediately after 
it was released when he was ranked 25th - the lowest spot for 
sitting members of Cabinet.  In addition, MP John Tamihere, 
who remains under a cloud despite being cleared of actual 
financial impropriety, has not put forth his name for a List 
seat.  Instead, Tamihere says, he will either stave off his 
Maori Party opponent in a run for an electoral seat or retire 
from Parliament.  Labour supporters Shane Jones, David Ching, 
an 
d Maryan Street have scored high list rankings - the first 
two above a number of sitting MPs.  Labour's List assumes an 
increase in their overall Parliamentary representation, 
demonstrating the party does not believe the Opposition's 
attacks on the Government's health, education, and crime 
policies poses any real threat.  End summary. 
 
Maori MPs Grab Higher Ranks 
--------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) New Zealand's governing Labour party released its 
list of Members of Parliament on March 21.  Under MMP, voters 
have two votes - one for a constituent MP, and one for a 
Party.  The List nominates individuals to fill seats based on 
the Party vote in the 2005 election (ref A.) The list reveals 
Labour's confidence in the face of an upcoming election, with 
almost all sitting MPs receiving high rankings.  Shifts in 
ranking versus the 2002 list, however, reflect the concerns 
of Maori MPs, who received higher ranks as a reward for 
remaining loyal through the foreshore and seabed conflict of 
2004 that resulted in the creation of the Maori Party.  Many 
Maori MPs had expressed concern over the Maori Party 
challenge in their constituencies, and a high ranking assures 
their return to Parliament.  One noticeable absence from the 
List is Nanaia Mahuta, a Maori MP who threatened to sink 
Labour's controversial foreshore and seabed legislation in 
2004, but ultimately toed the party line. Mahuta was 19th on 
the 2002 list, but may have decided to follow fellow Maori MP 
John Tamihere's example and rely on winning her constituent 
seat. 
 
3. (U)  John Tamihere is another obvious omission from the 
Labour list.  Suspected of financial misconduct over his 
dealings with a Maori trust (ref B), Tamihere was cleared by 
the Serious Fraud Office of any wrongdoing, but an 
investigation into the dealings of two of his previous 
employees is ongoing.  In what could be seen either as an act 
of defiance or an act of principle, Tamihere has declined a 
place on Labour's list, stating that he will either ward off 
challenges by the Maori party for his Tamaki Makaurau 
electorate seat or be content not to enter Parliament at all. 
 Tamihere has been unusually quiet in public statements, only 
rarely displaying the straight talk and temper that are his 
hallmarks as the "red blooded male" of the Labour Party.  He 
has been angling for a return to his Cabinet portfolios, but 
press reports claim PM Clark will not allow him to return to 
Cabinet before the election. 
 
What's In A Number? 
------------------- 
 
4. (U) Minister of Police George Hawkins, recently the target 
of effective Opposition attacks on the state of emergency 
police responses, pulled out of the List after it was 
announced, protesting his ranking as 25th - the lowest ranked 
member of Cabinet.  (Note: Hawkins is ranked 11th within 
Cabinet.)  Despite this move, Hawkins is likely to again win 
his Manurewa seat, which he won by almost 13,000 votes in 
2002.  Labour supporters Shane Jones, Maryan Street, and 
David Ching have scored high list rankings - the first two 
above a number of sitting MPs.  Shane Jones has distinguished 
himself as the Waitangi Fisheries Tribunal Chairman, and 
Maryan Street is an Employment Relations Manager as well as a 
former Labour Party President. Labour President Mike Williams 
said Chinese New Zealander Steven Ching's inclusion reflected 
"the changing face of New Zealand," noting that Ching's 
placement as number 42 on the list "should assure the 
business leader a seat in the House." 
 
7. (C) Comment: While careful leaks indicated which fresh 
faces were to be added to the List, Labour may have ruffled 
some feathers internally with its final ranking of sitting 
MPs.  Clark's prowess at damage control, however, should 
insure that there is no long-term damage to the party's 
support.  She has already bluntly stated the party line that 
the ranking of Maori MPs was due to their seniority, and not 
pressure from the nascent Maori Party.  By putting forth a 
list that by its nature assumes an increase in Labour's 
representation after the election, Labour appears to believe 
it has fended off successfully Opposition attacks on 
education, health and crime policies, and has begun to 
consolidate its plan of attack. 
Swindells