US embassy cable - 05NEWDELHI2140

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 NEW DELHI 002140 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/21/2015 
TAGS: CVIS, PREL, PHUM, PGOV, KIRF, IN, Indian Domestic Politics 
SUBJECT: MODI CASE REFLECTS DOMESTIC POLITICAL DIVIDE 
 
REF: A. NEW DELHI 2095 
     B. NEW DELHI 2094 
     C. NEW DELHI 2090 
     D. NEW DELHI 2081 
 
Classified By: DCM Robert O. Blake, Jr. for Reasons 1.4 (B, D) 
 
1.  (C) Summary: Aside from limited and localized protests in 
Gujarat and scattered nationalist editorial comment, BJP 
efforts to build a domestic political issue out of the Modi 
visa revocation seem to be dissipating.  Few outside the 
Sangh Parivar have risen to the bait and responded to BJP 
calls to make this into an India/USA confrontation.  In 
private conversations with us, Indians have expressed 
overwhelming support for the US decision.  Initial shock at 
the denial is now turning to embarrassment.  Modi harmed 
himself by making vitriolic anti-American statements that are 
not resonating well.  With Modi's political fortunes fading, 
the BJP leadership may decide at the appropriate time to 
quietly cast him aside.  The big loser could be Party 
President LK Advani, who may have been too quick and too 
outspoken in his support of Modi.  We will address BJP 
internal politics septel.  End Summary. 
 
Deep Divide in Gujarat 
---------------------- 
 
2.  (C) Gujarat CM Narendra Modi has been teetering on the 
edge of political ignominy for at least a year.  In 2004, 
then Prime Minister Vajpayee, with the concurrence of many 
within his party, pushed for Modi's dismissal, but lacked 
sufficient determination to deliver the final blow.  Just 
prior to the flap over Modi's visa denial, 60 members of the 
BJP parliamentary party in Gujarat called on him to step 
down, and the numbers were growing daily (Mumbai Septel). 
The BJP dissidents argued that Modi's dictatorial and 
arbitrary style of functioning was hurting the BJP in 
Gujarat, which could lose the next election there if Modi 
were not dismissed. 
 
3.  (U) Initial press reports had claimed that the visa 
incident bought Modi a reprieve from his opponents in 
Gujarat.  The "Hindustan Times" argued that, "the dissidents' 
campaign against Modi is bound to be weakened, at least for 
some time."  One dissident noted that, "Modi has proven to be 
lucky one again," as we "will have to lie low."  Another 
maintained that, "Now that Mr. Modi has been denied a US 
visa, he has again become a hero in Gujarat...this has come 
as a reprieve for him." 
 
4.  (U) Even though the visa controversy is only days old, 
the dissidents are already coming back in strength. 
Dissident leader Vallabh  Kathiria indicated on March 19, 
that Modi's reprieve would prove short-lived, as the 
dissidents were in no mood to give up their agitation, noting 
that, "People will not remember this forever.  There's no 
pro-Modi tempo in Delhi.  Our campaign is slow and steady. 
It may just take a little longer." 
 
BJP Turns to America Baiting 
---------------------------- 
 
5.  (U) Among the BJP's national leadership, no figure is 
more closely connected with Modi than Party President and 
former DPM LK Advani, who quickly came to Modi's defense.  At 
a Modi rally in Ahmedabad on March 20, Advani was the most 
outspoken, charging the USG with treating India as a 
"pushover," and warning that "this is not the end, but just 
the beginning of the battle for vindicating the self respect 
of the country."  Advani urged Indians to hold similar 
pro-Modi rallies across the country to "awaken the nation, so 
that one ever dares to treat it as a pushover." 
 
6.  (U) At the rally, Modi launched new anti-American attacks 
on the USG in Advani's presence, claiming that the USG 
revoked his visa at the behest of an anti-Hindu lobby in the 
US upset over Gujarat's passage of an anti-conversion law. 
Modi further claimed the USG denied him a visa to prevent 
Gujarat from working with Iran to bring a gas pipeline to 
India, as "the US was afraid this would lead to Gujarat and 
in turn India, becoming an economic power."  Although not as 
outspoken as Advani, other BJP/NDA leaders also pledged 
support to Modi, including George Fernandes, BJP General 
Secretary Arun Jaitley, and Manohar Joshi. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
Deep Divides Between the BJP and Congress 
----------------------------------------- 
 
7.  (U) The United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government was 
largely silent after presenting a formal protest on March 18 
(Ref B).  The BJP was quick to thank the GOI for its 
"support" of Modi, with Advani expressing gratitude to PM 
Manmohan Singh for his "bold stand" against a "powerful 
country like the US against hurting India's pride."  Congress 
Spokesman Anand Sharma quickly pointed out that the GOI 
protested the treatment of "a duly elected chief minister who 
holds a constitutional post," but this "does not dilute its 
opposition against the BJP leader."  Sharma also declined to 
"condemn" the US action or characterize it as an "insult" to 
India.  Separately, a senior party strategist close to Sonia 
Gandhi contacted PolCouns on March 20 to make sure we 
understood the UPA was just "doing what it had to" in 
demonstrating support for Modi, and to ensure this would not 
detract from Secretary Rice's successful visit.  The Congress 
agenda, our contact added, is to make this issue disappear 
from public view as quickly as possible. 
 
8.  (C) The Modi incident comes at a time when the political 
divide between Congress and the BJP is deep and growing.  The 
two parties are fiercely contesting state governments in Goa, 
Bihar, and Jharkhand, and Parliament has almost ceased to 
function due to BJP obstructionism.  The BJP has refused to 
cooperate with Congress on economic measures even when they 
are endorsed by both parties, including the new Patent Law 
(Ref D), and a BJP threat not to execute the Value Added Tax 
system scheduled for implementation on April 1. 
 
The Secular/Communal Divide 
--------------------------- 
 
9.  (C) Modi and his followers within the BJP have been 
attempting to use nationalism to rally mass support around 
Modi, painting his visa revocation as, "against all 
principles of democracy and human rights," "an "insult to the 
Constitution of India, which infringes on India's 
sovereignty," and an "audacious step that has been taken 
specifically for deriding and insulting India."  Media 
reports indicate, however, that these arguments are having 
little impact outside Modi's core supporters within the BJP 
and Sangh Parivar. 
 
10.  (C) A broad spectrum of "secular" groups, including 
political parties, NGOs and newspapers, have failed to take 
the bait, condemning Modi and applauding the USG move, 
despite the risk of being blamed "unpatriotic."  The 
Rashtriya Janata Dal, for example, stated that, "Mr. Modi is 
an Indian, so we have no choice but to tolerate his presence 
here, but other sovereign nations do not have to allow 
religious bigots to enter."  The leader of the Congress 
delegation in the Gujarat State Assembly suggested that his 
Chief Minister, "refrain from going abroad," as he "remained 
constantly surrounded by controversy." 
 
11.  (C) The GOI has also come under criticism for its rush 
to support visa issuance to Modi.  Press reports indicate 
that "at least 35" groups representing overseas Indians 
appealed to the PM "to look at this not through a 
nationalistic lens or as a violation of protocol, but to 
consider the larger issues involved."  Most editorials 
pointed out that sovereign nations have the right to deny 
visas to human rights abusers, and that India should have 
resolved this issue, the Indian legal system should have 
prosecuted Modi, the BJP leadership should have dismissed 
him, and the UPA failed to push for quick prosecution of riot 
related cases after coming to power in New Delhi. 
 
12.  (C) BJP and Sangh Parivar calls for Indians to rally 
around Modi have not cowed his opponents, who continue to 
demand his dismissal.  The generally anti-America "Hindu" 
characterized the visa episode as "an additional setback" for 
Modi, predicting that he is "in for a long hot summer." 
While the "Times of India" urged the BJP to "realize that it 
can't shield its poster boy of hate under the pretext of 
electoral mandate," and leading Indian columnist Pankaj Vohra 
urged the party to "seize the opportunity and replace Modi 
before he causes any further embarrassment." 
 
13.  (U) Private comments by a wide range of Indians to 
Embassy officers show there has been strong support by most 
Indians for the USG's decision.  One former director of the 
Central Bureau of Investigation, for example, told DCM that 
"Nine five percent of India stands with you." 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
14.  (C) Modi's political problems continue to grow, and his 
options narrow.  The BJP initially hoped to use Modi's visa 
problems to overcome deep internal divisions and rally public 
support.  Any gains are likely to be short-lived, as Modi's 
continued presence as a BJP leader exacerbates party 
divisions.  Rather than silencing his critics, the visa case 
is providing them with ammunition, sullying the BJP's 
reputation and keeping it on the defensive at a time when it 
hoped to make political gains against Congress.  Within 
Gujarat, emotions are currently running high, and Modi has 
won a reprieve, but it is likely to be short-lived.  As 
attention shifts from the visa issue, his opponents will 
re-emerge. 
 
15.  (C) The UPA government having "gone through the motions" 
by protesting the USG decision, is unlikely to ratchet up the 
pressure further.  Congress has long viewed Modi as a 
vulnerable target and will, at the appropriate time, use the 
visa incident as further ammunition against him.  Both 
Congress and the BJP particularly value the US-India 
relationship and Modi's America bashing has made many 
nervous.  Both parties will likely move to ensure that the 
negative impact on the relationship from this incident is 
minimal.  With Modi's position deteriorating, the BJP 
leadership could decide to quietly push him aside at the 
appropriate time.  This could become a further liability for 
Advani, who the senior party leader most visibly supporting 
Modi. 
MULFORD