US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1195

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001195 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
DEPT FOR EAP/TC 
 
FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, ECON, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Cross Strait Economics 
SUBJECT:  Southern Taiwan Reaction to Anti-Secession Law: 
Strong Political but Moderate Business/Academic Response 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
1. (SBU) In the political heartland of Taiwan's independence 
movement, Southern Taiwan political leaders have reacted 
strongly to Beijing's passage of the "Anti-Secession Law" 
(ASL), with acting Kaohsiung City Mayor, Chen Chi Mai and 
Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-hsing taking leading 
roles in mobilizing participants for the upcoming March 26 
rally in Taipei.  Local business leaders have been much more 
muted in their response.  While none are happy with the law, 
most do not expect a major impact on business.  Local 
academics likewise are uniformly unhappy with the law.  Thus 
far, however, the ASL has had no noticeable impact on cross- 
Strait academic exchanges.  End Summary. 
 
2.  (SBU) Southern Taiwan's reaction to Beijing's passage of 
the ASL has been uniformly negative, but thus far it appears 
to have had little effect outside of the political arena. 
Local politicians and pro-independence groups have denounced 
the ASL and urged followers to join political protests. 
However, the local business and academic communities thus 
far do not anticipate the ASL will have a major impact on 
cross-Strait business and academic ties.  Given that 
Southern Taiwan is the heartland of the pro-independence 
movement as well as the political base of the ruling 
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and Taiwan Solidarity 
Union (TSU), the overall negative reaction is not 
unexpected. 
 
Southern Taiwan Politicians Protest ASL 
--------------------------------------- 
 
3.  (SBU) Southern Taiwan political leaders reacted strongly 
and swiftly to Beijing's passage of the ASL.  The day of the 
ASL passage, Acting DPP Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-Mai, who is 
close to President Chen, coordinated a protest letter signed 
by all of Southern Taiwan's Magistrates and Mayors, 
including one KMT and one independent Magistrate.  Several 
Northern Taiwan officials also signed onto the protest 
letter, including Tao Yuan Magistrate Chu Li-lun, a member 
of the opposition KMT.   The statement entitled 
"Safeguarding Democracy and Peace, Opposing Military 
Annexation: An Objection to China's Secession Law" was 
published in English in the Taipei Times (one of the major 
local English papers).  The published protest letter, with 
signatures of all the Mayors and Magistrates, did not carry 
a by-line, but Kaohsiung Mayor Chen's office informed to 
AIT/K that Chen had initiated the document. 
 
4.  (SBU) All of the Southern Taiwan DPP Magistrates and 
Mayors are also actively urging supporters to participate in 
the March 26 protest planned in Taipei.  At a press 
conference the day following passage of the ASL, Kaohsiung 
Mayor Chen urged all people, and specifically Taipei KMT 
Mayor Ma Ying-jeou, to participate in the protest rally 
scheduled for 26 March.  Mayor Chen, along with Kaohsiung's 
DPP leadership, is working vigorously to mobilize 
participants for the rally, with the goal of filling 276 
forty-passenger buses.  The Mayor's office itself has 
committed to filling forty of the 276 buses. 
 
5.  (SBU) Kaohsiung County's DPP Magistrate, Yang Chiu- 
hsing, has also been publicly active to promote the protest 
rally.  On March 15 Yang held a press conference to protest 
China's "unilateral change to the status quo."  He has urged 
all Kaohsiung County government employees to attend the 
March 26 rally and asked them to help mobilize others to 
join.  Yang emphasized that the event is important not only 
to send a message to China, but also to communicate Taiwan's 
reaction to the international community.  Kaohsiung County's 
goal is to mobilize 130 forty-passenger buses for the March 
26 event. 
 
Local Businessmen See No Impact on Cross-Strait Interests 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
6.  (SBU) Reaction among Southern Taiwan's business 
community to the ASL has also been mostly negative. 
However, most business leaders do not anticipate the ASL 
will have a negative impact on their interests.  Secretary 
General of Kaohsiung's Importers and Exporters Association, 
almost all the members of which have Mainland China 
operations, told AIT/K that no Association members were 
likely to close or move their operations out of China 
despite the negative reaction to the ASL.  A few, he had 
heard, might look to other regional locations for future 
investments should they feel the risks in Mainland China are 
rising.  He cited one of his members, a Taiwanese carton 
manufacturer who had operations in Suzhou, Jiangsu Province, 
had just returned from China to Taiwan and told him that all 
the local Chinese people he had spoken to in recent days had 
been completely ignorant of the whole ASL issue.  As in 
Taiwan, he said, local Chinese people are mainly focused on 
making a living rather than politics. 
 
7.  (SBU) While other Southern business leaders also said 
they expected no major impact on cross-Strait business, they 
expressed support for the March 26 rally in order to "send a 
strong message to China."  Few local businesspersons have 
told AIT/K they plan to participate in the March 26 rally, 
however.  An exception is the Taiwan Deep Sea Tuna Boat 
Owners and Exporters Association.  Association President 
Wang Shun-long said he will lead a delegation of members to 
join the rally.  Wang added however that his Association had 
taken note of Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's proposal to allow 
Chinese fishermen to work on Taiwan's fishing fleet, an 
initiative that his Association would welcome. 
 
8.  (SBU) Local business leaders in Southern Taiwan's 
services industries are concerned that heightened cross- 
Strait tensions could impact investment and tourism in 
Taiwan.  However, most believed the ASL and Taiwan's 
response would create a temporary period of tension that 
would ease up quickly.  Kaohsiung Architecture and 
Investment Association President, Kuo Min-neng, told AIT/K 
that he believed the ASL marked a rock bottom point in cross- 
Strait relations and that, in particular, apprehension 
leading up to ASL passage had adversely impacted Taiwan's 
investment climate.  However, Kuo did not believe things 
would get any worse and that investors would quickly calm 
down and return to the market. 
 
9.  (SBU) Likewise, CEOs from Lucite, China Petrochemical 
Development Corporation, Lyondell, Taiwan Chlorine 
Industries Ltd., and Ho Tung Chemical Co., Ltd., all told 
AIT/K that the did not expect the ASL to have a serious 
impact on business.  Despite the political rhetoric, they 
did not see an increased risk of war.  They believed the 
initial drop in the Taiwan stock indexes had been very 
predictable, simply created a buying opportunity for those 
with ready cash, and would quickly rebound.  At a regular 
meeting of Kaohsiung's American Chamber of Commerce, members 
were vocal in criticism of Beijing's passage of the ASL, but 
all agreed it would have no impact on their companies' 
operations or plans, either in Taiwan or in Mainland China. 
Several noted that the ASL was meaningless as it simply 
restated Beijing's long-held positions and, in any event, 
they believed Beijing would take action toward Taiwan in 
whatever fashion it deemed appropriate, with or without an 
ASL. 
 
Academics - Unhappy with ASL, but Impact Likely Minimal 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
10.  (SBU) As with business leaders, Southern Taiwan 
academics told AIT/K they and all their colleagues are 
uniformly unhappy and angry about Beijing's passage of the 
ASL.  They noted that student reactions, however, were mixed 
with more politically active students having very strong 
negative reactions, but the majority relatively indifferent. 
Earlier this week, forty students at National Sun Yat-Sen 
University (NSYSU) staged a protest at the school and burned 
a PRC flag.  Small groups of students at other universities 
in Kaohsiung and neighboring Kaohsiung and Pingtung Counties 
have announced plans for a protest rally on March 20 at the 
Kaohsiung Cultural Center, site of the March 6 TSU protest 
against the ASL.  However, professors at NSYSU told AIT/K 
that most students remained apolitical, in part because of 
"burn-out" from Taiwan's contentious political campaigns and 
debates. 
 
11.  (SBU) Political Science Professor Liao Da-chi, who is a 
well-known and frequent television political commentator, 
told AIT/K that she is angry about the passage of the ASL 
which she sees as an unnecessary slap at Taiwan.  Liao, a 
"mainlander" who is a strong KMT supporter and activist, 
noted that even Pan Blue supporters in the South who were 
realistic about eventual reunification, such as herself, 
were unhappy with the ASL.   While she believed it would 
significantly increase negative feelings toward China among 
the Taiwan population, she did not expect it to set off a 
downward spiral in cross-Strait relations and will likely 
calm down after a month or two, provided Taiwan reacts in 
measured fashion. 
 
12.  (SBU) Another NSYSU Professor, Kuo Chih-Wen, who is a 
pro-TSU activist and member of the Southern Taiwan Society 
expressed a much stronger negative reaction.  He said that 
he and other "pro-independence" colleagues are fuming mad 
about the ASL and are demanding a strong response from the 
Taiwan Government.  However, he said that few of his "deep- 
Green" associates planned to attend the March 26 rally as it 
is too far away and many question its potential to have any 
impact.  He added that he does not believe President Chen 
should lead the rally, in order to retain flexibility for 
the government to respond, but he expected Chen would at 
least greet the protestors.  Kuo said the most important 
thing for President Chen was to raise the issue to the 
international community, especially the U.S., and ensure a 
strong international condemnation of Beijing's actions. 
Nevertheless, Kuo agreed with his colleagues that the ASL 
would not likely have a lasting impact and that tensions 
surrounding it would likely subside in a few months.  After 
all, he noted, nothing in the basic situation had actually 
changed - "Taiwan was an independent country and Beijing had 
no jurisdiction."  China was a major threat to Taiwan's 
democratic system and sovereignty before the ASL and 
continues to be so. 
 
Cross-Strait Academic Exchanges - Business As Usual 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
13.  (SBU) The International Affairs Office of NSYSU told 
AIT/K that the school had thus far received no orders from 
education authorities to cancel, suspend or slow any cross- 
Strait educational exchange programs.  They noted that plans 
were going ahead for two academic delegations from the 
Mainland to visit National Sun Yat-Sen University in late 
March.  The two groups include eight members from Sun Yat- 
Sen University in Guangzhou and 45 participants from 
Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.  The Guangzhou 
group had been invited to Taiwan by Shih Chien University, a 
private university located in Taipei, but would also visit 
NSYSU on March 31.  The Shanghai University of Finance and 
Economics Group was sponsored by the Taichung-based Feng 
Chia University and involved 40 students and five teachers 
from the music program of the school who would perform folk 
music throughout Taiwan campuses.  The group is scheduled to 
perform at NSYSU on March 24.  Separately, the National 
Kaohsiung University is also moving forward to implement a 
new MBA program in Kinmen, Taiwan, to provide classes to 
Taiwan businesspersons in Mainland China, via the "mini 
three links" (see septel). 
 
FORDEN 
 
PAAL