US embassy cable - 02KATHMANDU924

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 000924 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
LONDON FOR POL/RIEDEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PTER, PGOV, ASEC, CASC, NP, Maoist Insurgency 
SUBJECT: Maoist Cease-Fire Claimed as Hoax; All-Party 
Rally for Peace 
 
REF: KATHMANDU 915 
 
Cease-Fire a Hoax, E-Mail Claims 
-------------------------------- 
 
1. (SBU) Two e-mails sent to local media outlets May 10 
claimed that the previous day's announcement (Reftel) of a 
unilateral cease-fire by Maoist leader "Prachanda" was a 
hoax.  Writing Nepali in the Roman script, the author, 
self-identified only as "Bikram," said he had intended the 
hoax to teach both the media and the Maoists a lesson. 
Journalists ought to verify their sources before 
publication, and the Maoists should take care to sign and 
authenticate their pronouncements, the e-mail read. 
 
Maoists May Have Floated Trial Balloon 
-------------------------------------- 
 
2. (SBU) Observers were quick to jump to the conclusion 
that the cease-fire offer had been a trial balloon to see 
how the government would react.  By preserving complete 
deniability, they would not have to lose face, one local 
editor speculated.  He added that Prachanda's statement 
announcing the cease-fire was apparently written by 
someone with a fine knowledge of English, but who also 
knows the Nepali media well.  Baburam Bhattarai, leader of 
the Maoists brain trust, might have been capable of 
writing such a message. 
 
3. (SBU) A journalist for a leading vernacular daily also 
thought the Maoists may have just wanted to test the 
government's reaction.  After the Prime Minister came back 
with an adverse response, they denied they ever made the 
statement. 
 
All-Party Rally for Peace Fizzles, Drips 
---------------------------------------- 
 
4. (U) Leaders of most of Nepal's political parties 
gathered in central Kathmandu's Ratna Park May 10 to rally 
for peace and against terrorism.  Premature monsoon rains 
turned the field to mud, and the orations, scheduled for 1 
p.m., did not get underway until three o'clock, according 
to an Embassy FSN in attendance.  Our local journalist 
contact expressed disappointment at the number of people 
at the rally, which he estimated at eight to nine 
thousand.  He had expected more, and felt on that count 
the rally was "not very successful." 
 
5. (U) Another local intellectual judged that even though 
the rally was widely viewed as anti-Prime Minister Deuba 
and anti-emergency - and each of the various organizers 
had their own separate agenda - it was important for 
people to get together to make a statement of unity 
against the Maoists. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
6. (SBU) Arguments could be made both for and against the 
"hoax" theory.  However, in recent weeks the Maoists have 
shown a willingness to issue flurries of press statements 
when it suits their interests.  Although in this case a 
certain amount of ambiguity serves the Maoists' interests, 
we would not be surprised if the Maoists issue a statement 
in coming days to counter Prime Minister Deuba's wholesale 
rejection of their offer. 
 
MALINOWSKI