US embassy cable - 05QUEBEC35

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 QUEBEC 000035 
 
SIPDIS 
 
WHA/CAN FOR TERRY BREESE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV, PINR, CA, Stephen Harper, Elections 
SUBJECT: HARPER FACES STEEP UPHILL BATTLE IN QUEBEC 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED 
 
1.  (SBU)  Summary:  In the fall of 2003, the federal Canadian 
Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties merged and Stephen 
Harper beat out Stockwell Day for the new Conservative Party 
leadership.   In the federal election following that merger the 
Conservatives failed to elect anyone in Quebec province. 
Today, Harper is desperate to pick up seats in Quebec but his 
chances are slim at the moment.  Political pundits tell us that 
Harper would need to win at least 10 seats in Quebec to win 
nationally.  Hence, it is no coincidence that the party's first 
national convention is being held in Montreal, March 17-19.  As 
the Quebec Tories convene in Montreal, Harper is still 
struggling to gain support in French-speaking Canada, where 
Conservative Party values are not widely shared. End summary. 
 
2.  In 1984, no one would have predicted the Brian Mulroney wave 
that swept Quebec in which the Tories won 55 of a total 75 
seats.  Harper is asking Quebecers to remember the "beau risque" 
proposed by PQ premier Rene Levesque at that time, which helped 
Brian Mulroney's Conservatives defeat the federal Liberals. 
(Levesque urged Quebecers to vote for the Conservatives in the 
hopes of negotiating a new constitutional deal.)  So far, 
however, Stephen Harper and his party have so far been unable to 
establish any strong footing in Quebec province. 
 
3.  (SBU) CG and Pol/Econ Asst recently had lunch with Harper's 
lieutenant for Quebec, Josee Verner.  Verner ran and lost in the 
Quebec City riding of Louis St-Laurent in June 2004 but managed 
to collect the highest level of support in the province with 31% 
of the votes in her riding, behind the Bloc candidate Bernard 
Cleary.   (The average support for conservative candidates in 
the other provincial ridings was only 8%.)  Although Verner did 
not win her constituency, Harper took the unusual step of naming 
her to his shadow cabinet as his Quebec lieutenant and chair of 
the Quebec caucus.  (Bio note: Josee Verner is a native of 
Quebec City, is married, and has three children.  Verner worked 
for Quebec Liberal Premier Robert Bourassa from 1986-1992 and 
campaigned for the right-of-center Action Democratique de Quebec 
(ADQ) party in the last provincial campaign. End note.) 
 
4.  (SBU)  Josee Verner told us her party has everything to win 
and nothing to lose in Quebec.  They are vigorously building 
support here and Quebec is the party's number one priority.  She 
is the face and look of the party in the province and her job, 
she said, is to plant roots.  The party has been increasingly 
present over the past months and Harper has come to Quebec on 
numerous occasions since the June election.  Verner confidently 
predicted that the Tories would form the next government. 
 
5.  (SBU)  The politics, she pointed out, are simple.  Outraged 
by the corruption of the federal Liberals, Quebecers decided to 
vote for the Bloc Quebecois.   However, by electing 54 Bloc MPs, 
voters helped the Liberals return to power.  The Bloc Quebecois 
picked up the maximum number of seats last year and can only 
lose constituencies now.  Paul Martin, she said, has proven to 
be a major disappointment to voters and the Gomery Commission 
has disclosed the corruption of the previous Chretien 
government.  Comparatively, Tory leader Stephen Harper's strong 
points are honesty, integrity and transparency; he is squeaky 
clean, she said.  The Conservatives are working very hard on the 
ground and they are ready organizationally and financially for 
an election, she assured us. 
 
6.  (SBU)  Others we spoke with agree that the Conservatives 
need to win in Quebec, but are skeptical that this can be done 
with Harper at the helm.  Michel Rivard, another Conservative 
party organizer here, told us the Conservatives would need to 
win ten seats in Quebec to win nationally.  But Rivard believes 
Harper's focus on moral conservatism, especially gay marriage, 
is losing him support in Quebec.  He, like other conservatives 
in Quebec, believe that there will need to be a Conservative 
party leadership change before Quebecers vote conservative in 
significant numbers. 
 
7.  (SBU)  Separately, the Ambassador and CG met with ADQ leader 
Mario Dumont.  (Dumont's party is the provincial equivalent of 
Harper's Conservative Party and many of Harper's organizers in 
Quebec, including Verner, are also local ADQ party organizers.) 
Dumont also felt that the chances of the Conservatives under 
Harper in Quebec are slim.  Dumont believes that had Bernard 
Lord assumed the leadership of the Conservative Party, the 
entire political picture would be different for the 
Conservatives in Quebec.  With Harper, the challenge of the 
Conservatives in Quebec is simply to exist.  Harper represents 
moral conservatism which is unpopular in Quebec.  Dumont's 
bottom line:  Harper is not the right candidate to win votes in 
Quebec. 
 
8.  (SBU)  Comment:  Despite Verner's optimism, recent polls 
show no clear trend in Quebec voting intentions favoring Harper 
and his party.  Harper's high-profile stance opposing gay 
marriage left many Quebec Tory organizers scrambling to explain 
their party's moral conservatism.  Verner tried to limit the 
damage by highlighting Harper's decision to allow Conservative 
MPs (and supporters) to vote their conscience on the matter. 
But we believe she has not succeeded in overcoming what is now 
seen in Quebec as the Conservative Party's defining 
characteristic: moral conservatism.  Finally, Harper's efforts 
to overhaul his Quebec organization by bringing in new faces, 
including Verner, has triggered infighting which is likely to 
surface at the Party congress this weekend.