US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1188

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001188 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, CH, TW, Cross Strait Politics 
SUBJECT: SECRETARY'S BEIJING VISIT: TAIWAN HOPES FOR MIX OF 
HARD AND SOFT MESSAGES 
 
REF: TAIPEI 865 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reason: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (S) Summary: National Security Council (NSC) Secretary 
General Chiou I-jen asked AIT March 18 that Secretary Rice 
deliver a firm message to PRC leaders over the recent 
enactment of the Anti-Secession Law during her upcoming visit 
to Beijing.  At the same time, Chiou hoped the Secretary 
would urge Beijing to offer modest, but substantive, goodwill 
gestures to Taipei in order to nudge cross-Strait relations 
back on a more stable course.  Chiou said that Taipei is 
willing to fully resume cross-Strait opening measures within 
a matter of weeks, if Beijing refrains from further negative 
actions.  However, Chiou said Taipei has received recent 
information suggesting Beijing plans to take additional 
legislative measures aimed at Taiwan in the coming months. 
Chiou asserted that clear paired private and public markers 
over the Anti-Secession Law could discourage Beijing from 
going down this path.  Chiou added that a firm public line by 
the Secretary in Beijing that includes a reference to U.S. 
commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act will also reduce 
political pressure in Taiwan for a harder response by the 
Chen administration.  End Summary. 
 
Taipei's Hopes and Expectations 
------------------------------- 
 
2. (S) On March 18, NSC Secretary General Chiou I-jen asked 
the AIT Deputy Director to convey Taipei's request that 
Secretary Rice reinforce recent USG statements over the 
 
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Anti-Secession Law during her upcoming visit to Beijing. 
Chiou said that Taipei hopes the Secretary will deliver two 
messages during her visit: 1) inform PRC leaders that the USG 
will abide by its commitments under the TRA if Beijing uses 
"non-peaceful measures" in the Taiwan Strait; and 2) 
encourage Beijing to consider goodwill gestures on economic 
and political contacts to minimize damage from fallout over 
the Anti-Secession Law.  Chiou acknowledged that it may not 
be appropriate for the Secretary to deliver a strong public 
warning while on PRC territory.  However, he said that if the 
Secretary could add a rejoinder about the TRA's language on 
 
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the U.S. commitment to maintain stability in the Taiwan 
Strait in the context of her public recitation of the U.S. 
One China Policy and three communiques, it would send a 
subtle but strong message to both sides.  Chiou noted that 
such a message would be equally effective if delivered 
publicly during her March 19-20 stay in Tokyo.  The important 
thing for Taipei, Chiou added, is that the Secretary say 
something that goes beyond what has already been said by the 
State Department and White House Spokesmen. 
 
The Cup Half Full... 
-------------------- 
 
3. (S) Chiou expressed concern that PRC cross-Strait policy 
may be at crucial juncture, and urged the USG to press 
Beijing to take the more moderate path.  Chiou noted that 
there are different theories over why Beijing went ahead with 
the Anti-Secession Law despite the recent thaw in 
cross-Strait relations.  Some have assessed that Hu Jintao 
used the law to either influence or buy-off hard-liners in 
the People's Liberation Army (PLA).  Others suggest that 
Beijing was reacting to events before and after the March 20, 
2004 presidential election and, due to its internal 
policymaking mechanism, was unable to reverse decisions made 
during that more tense period.  Chiou said that he hopes that 
some combination of these explanations is accurate.  If they 
are, Chiou stressed that Secretary Rice should let Beijing 
know that Taipei does not plan to sever future contacts just 
because of this one "mistake." 
 
4. (S) In this context, Chiou said that it would be helpful 
for the Secretary to encourage PRC leaders to consider 
President Chen Shui-bian's recent "the results of the 1992 
Hong Kong talks" formulation as a possible way to bridge the 
current "one China" barrier to cross-Strait political 
dialogue (Reftel).  Chiou added that he has instructed the 
Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) to respond positively if the 
PRC side offers a gesture on Taiwan's proposal for direct 
cross-Strait cargo flights during the Secretary's visit. 
Chiou noted that while Taipei may not immediately accept such 
an overture so soon after Beijing's enactment of the 
Anti-Secession Law, it would certainly respond within a 
matter of weeks.  NSC Senior Advisor Lin Jin-chang offered 
his personal view, however, that if Beijing wants to make a 
positive economic gesture, it should wait until after the 
planned March 26 Taipei mass rally in order to avoid seeing 
the overture rejected by the Taiwan media and public as 
insincere. 
 
Or Empty 
-------- 
 
5. (S) Chiou warned that, even as Taipei stands ready to 
reciprocate goodwill gestures on Beijing's part, Washington 
would be well advised to lay down some firm markers in case 
the motives behind the Anti-Secession Law were not as benign 
as observers may hope.  Chiou said that Taipei has picked up 
a number of recent indications that the PRC is preparing for 
further legal steps aimed at Taiwan.  According to Chiou, the 
head of the Xinhua News Service branch in Macau told Taiwan 
officials this week that Beijing is preparing to act on more 
than a dozen legislative measures that will fall under the 
broad framework of the Anti-Secession Law.  He added that 
Taipei has also received multiple reports that the PRC is 
planning to revise the National Emergencies Act (Guojia Jinji 
Zhuangkuang Fa) to authorize the mobilization of military and 
para-military forces in a Taiwan Strait crisis.  Chiou warned 
that if the world community, and especially the United 
States, were seen as tacitly accepting the Anti-Secession 
Law, Beijing may conclude that it can afford to take further 
legislative actions to pressure Taipei. 
 
6. (S) MAC Chief Secretary Jan Jyh-horng subsequently 
contacted AIT to provide further details on the Xinhua 
information.  Jan said that National People's Congress (NPC) 
Chairman Wu Bangguo announced during his March 9 work report 
that the National Emergencies Act, which authorizes the 
government to declare martial law among other measures to 
respond to major natural and civil disasters, is to be 
revised by the end of the year.  Jan added that the Xinhua 
Macau source told Taipei that the other legislation Chiou 
referred to would likely include implementing and 
administrative measures tied to different articles of the 
Anti-Secession Law.  Jan noted that the Xinhua source told 
Taipei officials that many in Beijing took Secretary Rice's 
reference to the "unfortunate timing" of the Anti-Secession 
Law as a signal that the USG may have only objected to the 
timing of the bill, and not its substance. 
 
Domestic Reaction 
----------------- 
 
7. (S) Chiou noted that a firm statement by the Secretary in 
Beijing will also ease domestic pressure on President Chen 
Shui-bian to take more forceful actions in the coming weeks. 
Chiou remarked that President Chen appears to be effectively 
in control of the situation at home, adding that the planned 
March 26 mass rally in Taipei has thus far pre-empted action 
on such things as a referendum or Anti-Annexation Law.  Chiou 
cautioned, however, that if the U.S. is seen as tolerating 
the Anti-Secession Law this time, Taiwan may be under 
considerably greater pressure to take stronger actions if 
Beijing follows up with further legislative steps.  Chiou 
noted that elements of the Taiwan media have asserted that 
Washington has taken a much milder tone with Beijing over the 
Anti-Secession Law than it took with Taipei over the 
referendum and constitutional reform issues.  While 
personally disputing this characterization, Chiou said that 
this line of analysis could re-emerge after the Secretary's 
Beijing trip if "it looks like just another routine 
ministerial visit." 
 
Comment: Seeking Help to Stay the Course 
---------------------------------------- 
 
8. (S) Chiou's request was considerably more restrained and 
nuanced than similar messages AIT has received from MAC Chair 
Joseph Wu and other contacts in Taiwan in the days leading up 
to the Secretary's Beijing visit.  Many officials are clearly 
reacting to Taiwan media reports portraying the USG reaction 
over the Anti-Secession Law as "weak."  Nevertheless, Chiou's 
assertion that Chen "has control" of his own base appears to 
be accurate.  Even though much of the public commentary from 
the government has been barbed and emotional, the President 
has managed to keep the door open to returning to the 
moderate course set earlier in the year.  In light of this 
fact, it would be useful to remind Beijing that underneath 
the heated rhetoric and mass rallies, Taipei appears willing 
to put cross-Strait contacts back on an even keel. 
PAAL