US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1187

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001187 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE PASS AIT/W 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2015 
TAGS: PREL, PGOV, ASEC, TW 
SUBJECT: ANNIVERSARY PROTEST OF MARCH 19 SHOOTING LARGELY 
SYMBOLIC 
 
REF: A. TAIPEI 00955 
 
     B. TAIPEI 01076 
 
Classified By: AIT Director Douglas Paal, Reasons: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
1. (C) Summary:  Pan-Blue officials have told AIT that the 
planned March 19 rally to protest the one-year anniversary of 
the shooting of President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President 
Annette Lu is primarily to placate KMT Chairman Lien Chan. 
Though there are widespread doubts among Pan-Blue -- and not 
a few Pan-Green -- supporters regarding last week's 
announcement by the Tainan Criminal Investigation Department 
(CID) of a breakthrough in the shooting investigation, the 
level of public reaction has been remarkably modest, given 
the week of angry, boisterous protest demonstrations last 
Spring.  The March 19 shooting investigation has stoked a 
year of conspiracy theories and deep suspicions about the 
timing of the CID announcement.  Nevertheless Pan-Blue 
officials maintain that many want to move on and that the 
rally is being held solely out of respect for KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan and his continuing bitterness over the election 
outcome.  On the other hand, James Soong, Chairman of the 
KMT's erstwhile coalition partner, People First Party (PFP), 
will not attend the rally, and PFP legislators planning to 
attend say they will do so only to appease constituents who 
support Lien.  News coverage of the investigation and the 
March 19 rally has been overshadowed by media focus on the 
PRC Anti-Secession Law and the planned "million-person" 
protest rally on March 26, which will probably reduce the 
number of March 19 participants substantially below the 
projected target of fifty thousand.  End summary. 
 
A Rally For An Embittered Lien Chan 
----------------------------------- 
 
2. (C) In private, Pan-Blue officials candidly admit to AIT 
that the rally planned on March 19 to protest the one-year 
anniversary of the shooting of President Chen and Vice 
President Lu is being organized on behalf of KMT Chairman 
Lien Chan and fringe elements of the KMT and PFP.  According 
to KMT spokeswoman Cheng Li-wen, organizers are expecting 
around 50,000 protesters with Lien, Taipei Mayor Ma 
Ying-jeou, and Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng in 
attendance.  However, KMT Organizational Development 
Committee Chairman Liao Fung-te privately told AIT that the 
KMT is organizing the rally just "to comfort Lien Chan."  He 
said that Lien firmly believes the shooting robbed him of the 
election and, since it is the anniversary of the shooting, 
out of respect for Lien, the party "has to do something." 
Liao told AIT that other than that reason, there is no 
significance to the rally and he is expecting no more than 
50,000 protesters. 
 
Doubts Over CID Investigation Breakthrough 
------------------------------------------ 
 
3. (C) There is widespread doubt among most Pan-Blue and many 
Pan-Green supporters over the March 19 shooting investigation 
breakthrough announced two weeks ago by the CID (Ref A).  KMT 
Chairman Lien Chan called the report an insult to the wisdom 
of the people of Taiwan and said the CID taskforce had left 
many questions unanswered.  The PFP called for CID to 
continue its investigation, with some PFP lawmakers reporting 
that almost no one in the LY believed CID's claims and 
evidence.  Even Vice President Lu and Premier Frank Hsieh 
expressed reservations about the alleged breakthrough.  Vice 
President Lu called on the CID to find more compelling 
evidence to convince the people, including herself, while 
Hsieh urged that prosecutors to disclose as many facts as 
possible for the sake of social and political stability. 
 
4. (C) The Taiwan public also is skeptical of the new 
evidence announced by the Tainan CID.  According to a poll 
conducted by the Blue-leaning China Times, 26 percent of 
those polled believed the CID's findings while 51 percent did 
not.  The United Daily News also conducted a poll with 57 
percent saying the evidence was not strong enough and only 22 
percent saying they accept it.  A neighbor of deceased 
suspect Chen Yi-hsiung told AIT that there were many holes in 
the government's claim that Chen was behind the shooting and 
that she did not believe he did it.  The neighbor asserted to 
AIT that the investigators were putting too much emphasis on 
the observation that Chen quickly left the scene of the 
shooting.  She said that he always walked at a brisk pace. 
The neighbor also hypothesized that the government is paying 
the family off to take the fall because the government has 
moved them out of their home to an undisclosed hotel. 
 
Fueling Conspiracy Theories 
--------------------------- 
 
5. (C) The CID shooting investigation's unanswered questions 
are fueling even more conspiracy theories about the shooting. 
 Professor Emile Sheng from Soochow University told AIT that 
he had heard from his sources that PFP Chairman Soong's 
reconciliation with President Chen was behind the CID 
breakthrough, which was announced only days before the one 
year anniversary of the assassination attempt.  Sheng said 
his sources believed that during Soong's recent meeting with 
President Chen, Soong asked Chen to order the CID 
investigation team to announce the investigation breakthrough 
so Soong could back out of the planned Pan-Blue protests and 
distance himself from Lien Chan.  (Note: PFP Policy Chief 
Vincent Chang, who accompanied Soong to his meeting with 
President Chen told AIT that Soong made no such request.  End 
Note)  Sheng also said that some in the Pan-Blue camp claim 
the investigation announcement was timed by the government to 
distract the public from Beijing's Anti-Secession Law. 
 
But Time to Move On 
------------------- 
 
6. (C) Officials from both camps say despite doubts over the 
investigation most voters want to move on and do not want 
continued political deadlock.  The PFP's Soong publicly 
stated that he respected the incredulity of Pan-Blue 
supporters, but that the PFP would not mobilize supporters to 
take part in the rally.  PFP Policy Chief Vincent Chang told 
AIT that Soong's attendance would not be constructive for 
efforts to mend political ties with the Pan-Green, 
particularly after Soong's recent public reconciliation with 
President Chen.  Chang added that the only reason some PFP 
legislators would be attending the rally was because some of 
their constituents still support Lien Chan.  Democratic 
Progressive Party (DPP) Secretary General Lee Yi-yang said 
the rally would not lead to further hostility between the 
Pan-Blue and Pan-Green because the people want to move on and 
that tensions have eased between both sides since last year's 
election. 
 
Comment: 3/19 Rally and Investigation Overshadowed 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
7. (C) There is considerable doubt among the Taiwan populace 
over the Tainan CID's March 19 shooting investigation 
breakthrough announcement.  However, despite questions about 
the evidence in the investigation, the planned rally is 
largely symbolic for all except Lien Chan and his most 
stalwart supporters, who remain deeply embittered over last 
year's presidential election results.  The Pan-Blue's 
expected 50,000 protesters is a small cry from the rallies of 
hundreds of thousands of protesters immediately following 
last year's presidential election.  Moreover, the current 
focus of media and public attention on Beijing's 
Anti-Secession Law and the planned March 26 "million-person" 
protest rally has overshadowed the planned March 19 shooting 
anniversary rally, suggesting that even this more modest 
expectation may not be realized. 
PAAL