US embassy cable - 05TAIPEI1185

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001185 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/RSP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - 
ROBERT PALLADINO 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC, KMDR, KPAO, TW, Cross Strait Politics, Foreign Policy 
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: CHINA'S ANTI-SECESSION LAW 
 
1. Summary: Major Chinese-language newspapers in Taiwan 
continued March 18 to report on China's Anti-Secession 
Law by focusing on the U.S. House of Representatives' 
successful passage of a resolution Thursday demanding 
that the Bush administration express grave concern 
about the Anti-Secession Law, and on Taiwan's reaction 
to the House of Representatives' move.  Taiwan's 
largest daily, the pro-independence "Liberty Times," 
ran a page-two article that said, in the sub-headline: 
"The House passed the resolution by an overwhelming 
margin of 424 to 4 votes.  The Senate will follow suit. 
[The resolution] will provide a substantive foundation 
for [U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza] Rice when she 
visits and negotiates with China."  Both the pro- 
independence "Liberty Times" and "Taiwan Daily" 
reported on page two that Taiwan's Foreign Minister 
Mark Chen said his ministry is initiating proposals to 
bring the issue of the Anti-Secession Law to the United 
Nations with help from Taiwan allies.  The "Liberty 
Times" also had an article on page two headlined: 
"Taiwan will find an opportunity to ask the United 
States to review the Taiwan Relations Act."  The 
centrist "China Times," in a story on page thirteen, 
quoted Taiwan's Cabinet Spokesman Cho Jung-tai as 
saying that Rice's visit will bring pressure from the 
international community to bear on China since the U.S. 
government and its congress have taken a firm and 
determined position toward China's Anti-Secession Law. 
 
2. A "China Times" editorial urged the Chen Shui-bian 
administration to use a democratic approach to respond 
to Beijing's `non-peaceful' Anti-Secession Law.  An op- 
ed piece in the limited-circulation, pro-independence 
English-language "Taipei Times" noted that Chinese 
President Hu Jintao's new four-point guideline of March 
4, when taken together with the Anti-Secession Law and 
the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty, reveals a clear picture 
for Taiwan -- i.e. Washington and Beijing will work 
together to prevent Taiwan from claiming independence, 
and Washington and Tokyo will join hands stop China 
from taking Taiwan by force.  The limited-circulation, 
pro-unification English-language "China Post" 
editorial, however, presented Taiwan's role in the 
region as part of an emerging strategic competition 
between the United States and its allies and China to 
control the future of the Asian region.  End summary. 
 
A)" Using a Democratic Approach to Respond to `Non- 
Peaceful' [Means] Is a Right Thing to Do!" 
 
The centrist, pro-status quo "China Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] editorialized (3/18): 
 
". The Beijing authorities may find it difficult to 
understand why many Taiwan people mind that the word 
`non-peaceful' appears in the articles [of the Anti- 
Secession Law] since [in Beijing's view,] it has 
included many goodwill gestures in the law.  The reason 
is very simple.  The people of Taiwan, given many years 
of cultivating democracy, believe that any dispute can 
be worked out using a peaceful, rational and democratic 
approach.  Beijing maybe cared a great deal about the 
calls for a new constitution and name changes for 
Taiwan during last year-end's Legislative Yuan 
elections.  But didn't Taiwan voters already [make a 
choice and] offer an answer with their votes?  Without 
the results of last year-end's elections, we would not 
see the direct cross-Strait charter flights for the 
Lunar New Year in January, nor would there be a ten- 
point joint statement announced by [President] Chen and 
[PFP Chairman James] Soong in February.  Beijing's Anti- 
Secession Law, on the other hand, gives many Taiwan 
people the impression that no matter how hard they have 
tried to demonstrate the wisdom of `maintaining the 
status quo' in the Taiwan Strait, they are still 
haunted by the shadow of `non-peaceful' treatment [by 
Beijing.] 
 
"By the same token, the Taiwan authorities should not 
misinterpret the antipathy of the majority of Taiwan 
people toward the Anti-Secession Law and think that 
public opinion in Taiwan has turned to the other side 
again.  [The truth is that] the same high percentage of 
Taiwan people also disagree with having Chen personally 
join and stand at the front line of the mass rally [in 
protest of the Anti-Secession Law] -- one of the major 
examples that demonstrates the wisdom of the public. 
In other words, members of the public naturally support 
Taiwan articulating its dissatisfaction toward the 
Beijing authorities, but this does not mean that they 
support having cross-Strait relations totally moving 
backwards. This is another reason showing the value of 
democracy. ." 
 
B) "Does China Need a Law to Wage War on Taiwan?" 
 
Freelance writer Ku Er-teh noted in an op-ed piece in 
the pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" 
[circulation: 30,000] (3/18): 
 
". What we need to take note of is that on March 4, Hu 
spoke of his four-point guideline on Taiwan in response 
to President Chen Shui-bian's `four noes and one not.' 
This is very different from Jiang's `listen to what 
[Chen] says and observe what he does' policy. 
 
"If Hu's new four-point guideline is taken together 
with the Anti-Secession Law and US-Japan Security 
Treaty, what looms ahead of Taiwan is very clear:  The 
US and China prevent Taiwan form claiming independence, 
the US and Japan work together to stop China taking 
Taiwan by force, and the US pushes both sides to 
negotiate. 
 
"Hu's remarks revealed that Chen's `four noes and one 
not' is the bottom line acceptable to both sides, and 
that he expects Chen to conform to the `one China' 
principle. ." 
 
C) "Taiwan's Role in Struggle for Strategic Dominance 
in Asia" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language 
"China Post" [circulation: 30,000] observed in an 
editorial (3/18): 
 
"Taiwan is caught up in a bigger game than a simple 
assertion of the self-governing island's right to 
decide its own future.  Taiwan is part of an emerging 
strategic competition between the U.S. and its allies 
and mainland China to control the future of the Asian 
region. . 
 
"The U.S. is growing impatient with Taiwan.  The 
opposition controlled Legislature is dragging its feet 
on passing a budget for a multi-billion dollar arms 
package from the U.S., which is mainly focused anti- 
submarine warfare. . The U.S. has signaled that Taiwan, 
which it has regarded as a strategic asset, without a 
substantial rearming may now become a strategic 
liability. 
 
"In all, the U.S. will expect its allies to aid in 
containing Beijing's military ambitions.  China sees 
Taiwan as a part of it [sic] territory and its 
unification would break down the U.S. lines of 
communication and would further isolate Japan. . 
 
"So far, the emerging strategic competition can't 
properly be called a new Cold War in the sense of the 
old United States-Soviet Union conflict, but the 
military realignment is sure to promote China's 
paranoia of `encirclement.'  Taking over Taiwan, and 
putting it out of the equation, is a long term 
strategic objective that Beijing will achieve by force 
if necessary." 
 
PAAL