US embassy cable - 05LAGOS435

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000435 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/W 
STATE FOR EB/ESC/IEC/ENR 
STATE FOR DS/IP/AF 
STATE FOR INR/AA 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2015 
TAGS: KDEM, KJUS, NI, PGOV, PINS, PREL 
SUBJECT: OBASANJO'S NEMESIS: LAGOS STATE GOVERNOR TINUBU 
 
 
Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for Reasons 1.4 (d) and (e) 
 
1. (SBU) Summary.  On February 23, the Ambassador met Lagos 
State Governor Bola Tinubu who said that the federal 
government's withholding of approximately USD 135 million of 
accrued local government allocations for Lagos still has 
disproportionately affected children, health care delivery, 
transportation, and the environment.  The federal government 
has ignored a Supreme Court ruling to release these funds, 
demonstrating contempt for the rule of law, said the 
Governor.  Tinubu scorned the National Political Reform 
Conference, and said most delegates are "tools" of the 
Obasanjo regime.  Looking ahead to 2007, Tinubu predicted a 
fracturing of the PDP and subsequent realignment between the 
AD and other parties.  Tinubu was unbridled in his criticism 
of President Obasanjo -- his role in rigging the 2003 
elections, the fallout from his peacekeeping activities, the 
use of religion for political gain, and the North-South 
divide that threatens national stability.  In contrast, the 
Governor proclaimed Lagos State an example of modernism, 
capable of initiating pilot programs to encourage 
transparency and foreign investment.  End Summary. 
 
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Lagos State Battles the Federal Government 
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2. (C) In April, 2004, the Lagos State government increased 
the number of local government councils from 20 to 57. Tinubu 
said Lagos' population size justified the increase.  Why 
should states with much lower populations have the same 
number of local councils as Lagos, and receive comparable 
revenues, he queried.  (Comment: The increase in local 
government councils was politically popular in Lagos. 
However, it is questionable whether the state followed the 
procedure for establishing new local councils as provided for 
in the constitution.  In short, Lagos may have attempted to 
rectify a legitimate concern, but in an incorrect manner. 
Given the animus between Tinubu and President Obasanjo it was 
predictable that the federal government would react adversely 
to what Obasanjo would see as an arrogation of power by 
Tinubu.  End Comment.) 
 
3. (SBU) The Government of Nigeria (GON) retaliated and has 
since withheld funds for the local government councils -- now 
an estimated N20 billion (approximately USD 153 million). 
Lagos filed suit and in December 2004, the Supreme Court 
ruled in favor of Lagos, ordering the GON to release the 
funds, but only to the 20 councils recognized by the 1999 
constitution.  To date, the federal government has not 
complied with the court order, in what Tinubu characterized 
as contempt for the rule of law. 
 
4. (C) Tinubu virulently criticized the unwillingness of the 
federal government to release the funds stating, "our 
constitutional democracy is being assaulted by the presidency 
and the politicization of local government responsibilities 
undermines the democratic system at its 
very foundation."  Tinubu?s criticisms are echoed by many 
Lagosians, including members of the government and civil 
society.  One recently retired Supreme Court member stated 
that even during military regimes, decisions by the highest 
court were upheld.  Tinubu called the continued withholding 
of Lagos' statutory allocation a "negation of democracy." 
 
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Fund Withholding Threatens Social Services in Lagos 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
5. (SBU) Tinubu asserted that Lagos faces a huge shortfall in 
revenues that "threatens the peace of the state."  He 
maintained that Lagos, at present, was only calm out of 
deference and loyalty to him.  "I am holding the state back 
from anarchy ? but there is a limit to what I can do," he 
said.  Tinubu said primary school-aged children are most 
affected by the lack of funds.  With 120 to 1 student teacher 
ratio in the public schools, Lagos State does not have the 
means to hire additional teachers or rehabilitate schools. 
Tinubu stated that while he has been working to eradicate 
child labor, the economic pressures on families, combined 
with the lack of good schools, pushes children into wage 
earning activities.  Lagos' local governments no longer have 
the means to arrest the dropouts and provide alternatives or 
incentives for school.  Other sectors seriously affected by 
the nonpayment are primary health care delivery and the 
environment.  Public hospitals are unable to pay salaries, 
purchase supplies, or treat indigent patients, further 
crippling an already weak system.  With trash collection and 
waste management the responsibility of local governments, 
there is no funding to clean up the state, he said. 
 
6. (C) When asked about the next step in this conflict, 
Tinubu stated he was consulting the diplomatic community and 
others within the government and civil society. (NOTE: A few 
days after the Ambassador's meeting, Tinubu hosted the 
Southern Governors Forum in Lagos.  The thirteen governors 
(or their representatives) attending the meeting signed a 
petition on the withholding of funds from Lagos, agreeing to 
intercede on behalf of the local governments to make the 
issue a priority with the president.  Thus far, there have 
been no public concessions by the federal government.) 
 
(Comment: We think Tinubu is overstating the fiscal impact of 
the withheld local government council revenues.  Lagos State 
continues to receive its state allocation from the Federal 
government and of all 36 states in the federation, it has the 
highest internally generated revenues (IGRs).  Lagos State 
generates roughly 4 million Naira/month in IGR and receives 
an additional estimated 3.3 million Naira/month from the 
federal government as its state allocation.  The withheld 
local government council revenues are approximately 2.4 
million Naira/month.  Separately, the Chair of the Finance 
Committee in the Lagos State House of Representatives 
confided to us that the State has enough money to cover 
recurring costs, implement capital projects, and provide 
social services as usual.  A private economic consultant 
echoed this view. 
 
Comment Continued:  The real issue is that local government 
revenues are the "pork" that governors spread to shore up 
their power base.  Tinubu is no exception among governors in 
this practice.  However, as the sole AD governor in the 
country, Tinubu really feels the political pinch when his 
"pork" goes missing.  Despite his public blustering against 
Obasanjo, well-placed private sector contacts have told us 
that Tinubu has  "prostrated" himself before the president to 
beg for the money, which still has not been forthcoming.  In 
the meantime, Tinubu has used these circumstances to bolster 
his image, making public visits to accident victims in 
hospitals and generating press coverage by declaring that the 
state would treat the patients free of charge. End Comment.) 
 
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Democratic Government or Civilian Dictatorship? 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
7. (C) Tinubu denounced Obasanjo and his administration to 
the Ambassador declaring, "civilian dictatorship has 
emerged."  He offered these examples: Obasanjo has disobeyed 
the Supreme Court, terminated the chairman of the PDP party 
at will, and surrounded himself with all ex-military 
officers, such as his Chief of Staff, his National Security 
Advisor, and in the State Security Service.  Tinubu stated, 
"The President is the Minister of Defense" and that officials 
obey his every order ? "whatever Baba says."  Tinubu 
continued his diatribe saying, "the truth must be told: He 
rigged the elections."  In 2003, only Lagos was able to stop 
the onslaught of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), Tinubu 
declared, crediting the large presence of election observers 
for his survival at the 2003 polls.  He said, "Although they 
had prepared results, they spared me." 
 
8. (C) Tinubu disclosed the AD is looking to merge with 
another party.  Tinubu predicted the imminent demise of the 
PDP.  It could be initiated solely by an AD merger 
announcement.  He intimated that a fractured PDP would cause 
some to move back to the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) 
and others to join the AD.  Tinubu said the president wants a 
third term in office and a return to a parliamentary system 
of government where his "club of elites" can control the 
entire political landscape.  Accusing Obasanjo of "killing 
the opposition, like he is killing us", Tinubu contrasted 
himself with the president by expressing support for a true 
federalist system, and the checks and balances that make it 
more accountable. 
 
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Skeptical About Political Reforms Conference 
-------------------------------------------- 
9. (C) Tinubu had little hope for the Political Reforms 
Conference.  The Pro-National Conference Organization 
(PRONACO), headed by Wole Soyinka, should continue with their 
parallel process to yield results that would force the 
Conference to come up with something meaningful, he added. 
Tinubu questioned, "Where are the agitators?" insinuating 
that conference delegates were selected only to support the 
presidential line and that, "They will be dismissed as soon 
as (the President) does not like what he sees."  Tinubu 
argued that the Conference is not an 
initiative from the people.  A statement from the president 
is not a sufficient framework for the process, nor does it 
set the parameters of the dialogue.  Tinubu recommended that 
the Conference address the role of the court and the 
ratification process for the conference recommendations. 
Tinubu bluntly stated that the Political Reform Conference 
does not meet the requirement of a sovereign conference. 
 
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Uncensored Criticism of Obasanjo 
-------------------------------- 
 
10. (C) When the Ambassador rejoined that during Obasanjo's 
tenure, Nigeria's international reputation had improved, 
Tinubu refused to concede any achievements to the president. 
Concerning Nigeria's role in helping to resolve regional 
conflicts, Tinubu stated, "after Abacha, any president would 
have done it - it is democracy at work, not Obasanjo." 
Tinubu complained that while the president is busy keeping 
peace in Liberia, Sudan and Sierra Leone, Lagos State has to 
deal with the onslaught of refugees.  Those who live in 
shanties, drive okadas (the motorbikes used for public 
transportation), and sleep on the streets are not all 
Nigerian, he claimed.  "They have come to Lagos and are 
messing my environment up."  Lagos is taking the brunt of the 
international peacekeeping burden, and "not getting anything 
for it." 
 
11. (C) Tinubu claimed Obasanjo has made Nigeria's 
international reputation worse by his actions at home, 
particularly because he "so brazenly rigged the 2003 
elections."  Tinubu challenged that to be a role model and a 
great leader, Obasanjo should honor the court of appeals 
judgment and order a fresh election.  He accused the Obasanjo 
administration of using religious sentiment to keep people 
from economic revolt, and purposefully keeping the North 
illiterate and uneducated because, "they do not ask for 
accountability - education would cause revolution."  He 
further criticized Obasanjo for being indirectly responsible 
for the introduction of Shari'a law in the North.  After the 
Kano State governor did not win the state for PDP in the 2003 
elections, Obasanjo wanted the victor eliminated.  But the 
newly-elected governor outfoxed the president by instituting 
Shari'a as a strategy for "political survival," thus, holding 
on to power and increasing his popularity. 
 
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Lagos Exemplifies Modernity 
--------------------------- 
 
12. (SBU) Tinubu boasted that Lagos is more modern than the 
rest of Nigeria and has been actively pursuing this goal. 
"It is the only economy that is working in the country, 
despite all the odds against it."  Governance in Lagos is 
complicated by its opposition at the federal level and an 
exploding population, fueled by ongoing migration from the 
villages and immigration from neighboring states.  (NOTE: The 
population of Lagos State is currently estimated at 15 
million.)  Tinubu expressed pride in the reforms he has 
initiated and the technocrats who make up "the best cabinet 
in the country."  Tinubu discussed the obstruction of state 
contracts caused by federal demand for bribes.  He lamented 
the resulting breakdown of negotiations on a project that 
would have provided 1000 megawatts of power to Lagos.  Tinubu 
referred to his US-based education and job experience 
providing him an understanding of foreign direct investment 
and stipulations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.  The 
federal government does not respect these fundamentals, thus 
failing to establish a climate for long-term investment in 
Nigeria. 
 
13. (U) Tinubu expressed the desire for an economic summit 
with an organized private sector and strengthening the 
economy through decentralization.  He suggested a program 
that uses states as models to initiate pilot programs on 
transparency.  Tinubu welcomed the USG assistance on 
HIV/AIDS, asserting good health and education are the 
bedrocks of democracy. 
 
14. (C) COMMENT.  Private sector contacts are not bullish on 
the Lagos economy and many claim that they have been 
requested to contribute to the governor in order to have 
projects move forward.  However, they say, corruption is 
relative, and Tinubu does not rank among Nigeria's most 
notoriously corrupt governors.  End Comment. 
 
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Bio Note 
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15. (U) Tinubu, a devout Muslim from an all-Yoruba family, is 
married to a Christian.  He has personal ties to the U.S. and 
worked with Deloitte and Touche in Chicago.  In the 1990s, he 
returned to Nigeria where he worked with Mobil Oil. 
BROWNE