US embassy cable - 05ACCRA535

C O N F I D E N T I A L  ACCRA 000535 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2015 
TAGS: GH, PGOV, PREL, TO 
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH TOGO OPPOSITION LEADER GILCHRIST 
OLYMPIO 
 
Classified By: POLCHIEF SCOTT TICKNOR FOR REASONS 1.5 D AND E. 
 
1.  (C)  Summary:  On March 15, PolChief met in Accra with 
Togolese opposition leader Gilchrist Olympio, at PolChief's 
request.  Olympio hoped the April 24 election would be free 
and fair enough for a credible outcome and was confident the 
combined opposition would win.  Nigerian President Obasanjo 
and ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas clearly conveyed to 
him that they would not support a delay in the election or a 
change to the Togolese constitution at this time.  He was 
disappointed that ECOWAS leaders lack the funding and/or will 
to engage effectively on Togo. Pressure from President Bush 
was key in convincing Faure Gnassingbe to step down.  Olympio 
hopes for USG help with technical advice and funding for 
observers in the election, as well as continued pressure on 
the Togolese government.  End summary. 
 
Elections 
--------- 
 
2.  (C)  Olympio believes the scheduled April 24 election in 
Togo will not be fully free and fair, and acknowledges that 
the military may try to intimidate or obstruct voters.  The 
opposition has only been given nine days to review the voter 
register, which he said was much too little time. 
Nonetheless, he hopes the elections can be free and fair 
enough to produce a credible democratic outcome.  He believes 
that consensus opposition candidate Emmanual Akitani-Bob has 
a good chance of winning the election.  Togolese are tired of 
the Eyadema legacy, he affirmed, noting that the Akitani-Bob 
had won an impressive 34 percent of the vote in the 2003 
election, despite President Eyadema's election rigging and 
the fact that Olympio only visited Togo twice during the 
campaign. 
 
3.  (C)  Olympio realizes he cannot run as a candidate this 
election because the current constitution requires a 
candidate to reside in Togo for 12 months before the poll. 
Any opposition effort to change this clause in the 
constitution at this time would be blocked by Gnassingbe 
cronies.  Olympio had recently met in Abuja with Nigerian 
President Obasanjo and ECOWAS Executive Secretary Chambas, 
who made clear that they would not support, nor did they 
believe there would be much international support for, a move 
to change the Togolese constitution at this point or to delay 
the election beyond the constitutionally determined April 24 
date.  Olympio told PolChief he disagreed with their 
interpretation of the constitution and would prefer a delay 
in the election date, but he was resigned to accept that the 
election would have to go forward for April 24.   He was not 
overly concerned about the constraints of a ban on political 
campaigning and media coverage 30 days prior to the official 
campaign period, saying the opposition had informal ways of 
spreading its message.  He was more worried that the military 
 could intervene to hamper opposition campaigning.  If 
Akitani-Bob wins the election, Olympio envisions a possible 
referendum to change the constitution. 
 
The Role of ECOWAS 
------------------ 
 
4.  (C)  Olympio was largely dismissive of ECOWAS.  Nigeria 
is the only country which matters in ECOWAS, Olympio opined. 
He confirmed that Obasanjo had threatened Gnassingbe with 
Nigerian military intervention, which Olympio thought the 
Nigerian public would widely support.  However, Olympio 
thought the threat was not seen as credible because Nigeria 
was not in a military or financial position to follow through 
with it. 
 
5.  (C)  Other ECOWAS countries have had little impact on the 
Togo crisis.  Niger is going through the motions as ECOWAS 
Chair but, like other small countries in ECOWAS, it has no 
money to put into ECOWAS efforts.  Ghanaian President Kufuor 
wants to avoid instability on Ghana's eastern flank, 
especially with troubles to the west in Cote d'Ivoire. 
Olympio said he wrote a letter to Kufuor after his recent 
inauguration, urging him to play a more active role in 
promoting democracy in Togo, but he did not get a response. 
Olympio has known Kufuor for many years (they were at Oxford 
University together) but Olympio said they are not close 
friends.  He was appreciative that Kufuor had provided him 
bodyguards in Ghana (although he joked that they are probably 
also spying on him) and he expected to see Kufuor in the next 
few days.  Burkina Faso's President Campoare told Olympio 
that he could not afford to take a tough stand on Togo and 
risk alienating Gnassingbe because Burkina relies too heavily 
on access to Togo's deep water port.  Benin's President 
Kerekou is "strange" and uninterested in engaging on Togo, 
Olympio opined. 
 
 
Looking for International Support 
--------------------------------- 
 
6.  (C)  Olympio appreciated pressure from President Bush, 
which he saw as a key factor in convincing Gnassingbe to step 
down.  He plans to visit Lome for one day on March 19 to 
address a large rally (he said 150,000 people) and hopes to 
meet Ambassador Engle and the German Ambassador (he saw 
Germany as helpful because of its large Togolese expat 
community and historical colonial ties).  Olympio hoped the 
USG can help provide technical advice for the election and 
financial support for international (including ECOWAS) 
observers.  He also hopes for continued USG pressure to 
ensure elections which are relatively free and fair. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
7.  (C)  Olympio seemed tired but generally relaxed.  He said 
he needed to spend more time thinking through his next steps. 
 He was disappointed by his meetings in Abuja.  He received a 
number of phone calls during the meeting and is clearly 
pulled in many directions.  When asked about the 
post-election period, the potential for significant ethnic 
violence, or a refugee crisis, he had little to say (except 
that violence is possible).  His mind is clearly on the 
immediate task of lending his weight and strategic thinking 
behind the opposition campaign and lining up international 
support for the election.   He also had little to say when 
asked about his personal security in Togo, noting that he 
plans to surround himself with large crowds ("The military 
will not machine gun a large gathering"). We are not aware of 
intervention from President Bush in the Togo crisis.  We 
surmise that Olympio may be referring to the Department's 
statements on the Togo political situation.  Olympio has a 
house in Accra, his mother is Ghanaian, he spent considerable 
time over the years here, and he clearly feels comfortable in 
Ghana.  He plans to return to Accra after his one-day trip to 
Lome this weekend and will likely use his house here as a 
base during the campaign. 
 
YATES 
 
 
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