US embassy cable - 02ABUJA1448

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001448 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
E.O.12958: DECL: 5/6/12 
TAGS: PGOV, KDEM, PREL, NI 
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OPPOSITION PARTIES TALK MERGER 
 
 
REF: ABUJA 1324 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5 (B) 
AND (D). 
 
 
1. (C) In reporting President Obasanjo's formal 
announcement to seek reelection, reftel forecasted that 
Obasanjo's statement would force his opponents to respond. 
His political adversaries wasted little time making that 
prediction come true. 
 
 
2. (C) Most major daily newspapers have been reporting that 
the APP and the yet-to-be-registered UNDP have been 
immersed in merger talks since Obasanjo declared his 
reelection bid. Significant progress has been made and the 
conclusion of a formal agreement appears imminent.  It is 
possible that the NDP might also join the merger.  If that 
were to happen, it would create a potentially significant 
rival to the ruling PDP in the North. 
 
 
3. (C) According to Yaya Abubakar, a businessman, the 
merger might be formalized this week. As part of the deal, 
the existing party chairmen would resign, making way for a 
new person not publicly affiliated with any of the existing 
parties to emerge. The new chairman would likely be from 
the Southwest. The way then would be open for the new party 
to nominate a Presidential candidate from the North and a 
running mate from the Southeast. The simultaneous 
resignation of both (or all three) chairmen would create an 
impression of a merger of equals. But Abubakar said the 
entire deal could yet fall apart since each outgoing 
chairman was trying to retain influence by picking the 
(unified) successor chairman. 
 
 
4. (C) Comment: A North/Southeast ticket would replicate 
the winning formula in past elections. Additionally, this 
partially responds to the noisy clamor from the Igboland 
for a President of their own. Dangling the Vice Presidency 
before them might attract Igbos who feel estranged from the 
Obasanjo Administration and do not see much hope about 
wresting the top job in the PDP since Vice President Atiku 
is a Northerner. These Igbos might see the Vice Presidency 
in 2003 as the stepping stone to the Presidency in 2007 or 
2011. End Comment. 
 
 
5. (C) Abubakar said that a recurring theme in the talks 
among APP, UNDP and NDP was the need for a younger man to 
assume the Presidency, someone under 50, someone such as 
himself. Abubakar offered that there was some support for 
airline owner Mohammed Buba Marwa, a retired brigadier 
general and former military governor of Borno and Lagos 
states. However, many discussants were sour on naming a 
former military leader. They feared the electorate would 
draw little distinction between them and the PDP if they 
tapped another retired military officer to face former 
General Obasanjo. However, Marwa was still a possibility as 
his popularity in Lagos intrigued many of those in the 
merger talks who want to hit Obasanjo, a Yoruba, hard in 
his own electoral backyard. 
 
 
6.  (C) Comment: Some Northern powerbrokers are considering 
trying to nominate an elderly Igbo (e.g., Alex Ekwueme) or 
southern minority leader (e.g., C.C. Onoh) as the 
Presidential candidate while bringing in a young Northerner 
to run things behind the scenes as Vice President.  End 
Comment. 
 
 
7. (C) During a May 1 conversation with PolCouns, National 
Assembly Member Farouk Lawal confirmed that the President's 
opponents have been talking feverishly. Lawal, allied with 
Speaker Ghali Na'Abba as an Obasanjo foe within the PDP, 
stated the opposition had been stymied by its inability to 
find a credible consensus figure. Stoked by the President's 
reelection declaration, sentiment for unity in the 
opposition was at its crest. Lawal predicted opposition 
forces had only a few weeks to select a candidate and 
execute the formal merger. After that, centrifugal forces 
of regionalism, religion and personal ambition would begin 
to supercede the mutual opposition to Obasanjo, Lawal 
remarked. He added that already Obasanjo operatives were 
trying to sow discord among the participants in the merger 
talks. Lawal asserted that if the parties do formally 
merge, there likely would be a mass exodus of Obasanjo 
opponents from the PDP to the new creation. 
 
 
8. (C) Comment: That the parties have moved so quickly in 
the merger talks illustrates the significance of the 
opposition to an Obasanjo second term. However, the fine 
points still pending to consummate the deal show the 
difficulty in fusing divergent interests into an ABOP -- 
Anybody But Obasanjo Party. With former Head of State 
Babangida second-in-command Augustus Aikhomu leading the 
UNDP team, this development seems to have IBB's blessing, 
if not his behind the scenes involvement. We heard from one 
source that IBB was orchestrating this amalgam not to fight 
Obasanjo but to form a party big enough to thwart former 
Head of State Buhari's attempt to steam-roll the APP 
nomination. Buhari's dislike of IBB is legendary, and IBB 
clearly has more to fear from a Buhari first term than from 
Obasanjo's retention. 
 
 
9. (C) Regardless of the primary intention behind the 
merger, it could pose a serious threat to Obasanjo if it 
jells and selects a formidable candidate.  The claim that 
the prospective party wants a new face and wants to break 
from the past rings hollow. The manner in which the party 
is being formed and the attempt of a select group of 
powerbrokers to pick the presidential candidate smack of 
traditional Nigerian politics. Basically, this is a move by 
Northern politicians, stung by what they feel has been 
Obasanjo's disregard for their station and their support in 
the 1999 election, to regain control of national politics. 
In the end, with so many of the established players 
involved and assuming their familiar roles as backroom 
bargainers, this attempted merger appears to be the same 
old card game played on a refurbished table. End comment. 
 
 
JETER