US embassy cable - 05ZAGREB431

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000431 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/SCE - KABUMOTO, BENEDICT 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2015 
TAGS: PGOV, PREL, EU, HR, Political Parties/Elections 
SUBJECT: EU DELAY: SANADER SAYS GLASS STILL HALF FULL 
 
REF: A. ZAGREB 418 
     B. ZAGREB 173 
     C. 04 ZAGREB 2207 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Ralph Frank for reasons 1.5 (b) & (d). 
 
1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: PM Ivo Sanader did his best to 
put a positive spin on the GAERC's March 16 decision to delay 
negotiations with Croatia, focusing on the approval of the 
negotiating framework and the fact that more countries were 
in favor of opening negotiations than against it.  During the 
PM's address to Parliament today, he said the decision should 
not discourage anyone and the government must maintain its 
focus on reforms.  All indications are that Sanader remains 
firmly in control of the ruling Croatian Democratic Union 
(HDZ), with no rumblings from the party's right wing. 
 
2. (U) Opposition leaders generally supported Sanader's line, 
saying Croatia must press on with reforms despite the delay 
and confirming they will not seek early elections.  This 
generally constructive approach appears to have soothed any 
public anxiety (ref A).  Only the far right Croatian Party of 
Rights (HSP) tried to make political hay out of the decision, 
laying responsibility for the delay, which HSP president Anto 
Djapic said could last 20 years, squarely at the feet of the 
Sanader government. 
 
3. (C) Today's muted public reaction is a welcome 
development.  Most Croatians are unsurprised and generally 
unconcerned with the delay.  A common opinion expressed in 
television interviews and polls has been that the country is 
unprepared to begin negotiations anyway.  Euroskeptics are 
attempting to claim the day, with leaders of the interest 
group "Independence and Progress" (SIN), the most vocal 
opponent to EU membership, calling for a public protest on 
Zagreb's main square to essentially thumb their noses at 
Brussels.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
CROATIAN NATIONAL TELEVISION TAKES LEADERS TO TASK 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
4. (U) Relatively little attention is being focused on the 
role of ICTY fugitive Ante Gotovina on the delay.  However, 
perhaps the most significant media event of the past 48 hours 
was a Croatian National Television segment comparing comments 
made by Sanader, opposition leader and former PM Ivica Racan, 
Speaker of Parliament Vladimir Seks and others over the last 
4 years, ranging from opposition to the indictment and 
evasive answers to questions about efforts to apprehend 
Gotovina to the most recent calls for his arrest.  The clear 
message was, "If you were the ICTY, would you trust these 
guys?" 
 
EUROPEAN COMMISSION FORESEES NO CHANGES IN ACTIVITIES 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
5. (C) Christos Makridis, political counsellor at the 
European Commission's Zagreb mission, told EconOff today that 
he had not seen any adverse political reaction to the delay 
so far.  If the postponement is a matter of months, business 
will go on more or less as usual, with EU programs continuing 
to assist in preparing Croatia for membership.  If the delay 
does drag into years, Makridis said, the public could turn 
against necessary and sometimes painful reforms. 
FRANK 
 
 
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